Why Denver Broncos Are Facing a Letdown Against San Diego Chargers

The Denver Broncos should be on high alert Thursday night when the San Diego Chargers come to town.

This game has letdown written all over it. In fact, the last time Denver hosted San Diego for a Thursday night game in 2013, the Bolts walked away with a convincing seven-point win.

The key in that game was time of possession. Denver held the ball for just 21 minutes and 11 seconds, easily its lowest possession time of the season.

ESPN Stats & Information believes this was by design.

For anyone who has watched San Diego closely over the last two seasons, you know the Chargers like to play keep-away. They employed this strategy to perfection in Week 2, limiting the defending champion Seattle Seahawks to just 17:45 of total possession. The result was a decisive 30-21 win for the Chargers.

If the Bolts control the clock on Thursday they should have an excellent chance of winning. The Chargers are 4-0 when holding the ball more than their opponent this season.

Team	Average Time of Possession	NFL Rank
San Diego	32:37	5
Denver	30:07	14

Meanwhile, Denver has lost the time-of-possession battle in four of its last five losses. According to Team Rankings, the Chargers are fifth in time of possession compared to only 14th for Denver.

Turnovers will be another important factor on Thursday night. This area tends to favor the Chargers, who are fourth in the NFL in turnover differential. Overall, the Chargers are 4-1 this year when they’ve had fewer turnovers than their opponent.

None of that bodes well for Peyton Manning. The Denver signal-caller has committed at least one turnover in each of his last six meetings with San Diego.

Since joining the Broncos in 2012, Manning has a 107.2 quarterback rating in five games against San Diego. Though not a huge drop-off, that’s three points lower than his rating versus the rest of the league (110.2).

This Chargers team is much improved from the one that beat Denver a year ago. Through seven contests, the Chargers have averaged 26.3 points per game. That’s their highest-scoring output since 2010.

Philip Rivers’ 113.0 quarterback rating isn’t just the highest in the league. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, it’s the sixth-best all time. With weapons like Malcom Floyd, Keenan Allen and a rejuvenated Antonio Gates, this offense is not to be taken lightly.

Even in their two losses this season, the Chargers have been competitive. They lost those games by a combined four points.

Speaking of losses, the Chargers just lost to the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday on a last-second field goal. That may not seem like an advantage, but over the last two seasons, Mike McCoy’s team has proved to be quite resilient. During that span, the Chargers have won six out of eight the week following a loss.

All signs point to a Chargers upset. Floyd Mayweather won a nice chunk of money betting on Denver a few weeks ago, but he’d be wise to stay clear this time around.

For what it’s worth, Odds Shark has the Broncos as nine-point favorites heading into Thursday night's game.