Which LA Lakers Big Has Best Opportunity in 2014-15?
Each member of the Los Angeles Lakers frontcourt enters the 2014-15 NBA season with something to prove.
Veteran Carlos Boozer has to show he still has fuel left in his tank. Former lottery picks Ed Davis and Jordan Hill are out to prove they have more talent than what they've been able to showcase so far in their careers. Rookie Julius Randle carries the massive burden of being the franchise's highest draft pick (seventh overall) since 1982.
There are so many narratives to follow but only so many minutes to flesh each one out. And, interesting though each angle might be, head coach Byron Scott isn't going to base his rotation around giving each storyline equal opportunity to play out.
One of these bigs will be served a larger piece of the pie than the others. And that player will not—or, at the very least, should not—be Boozer.
With 12 seasons already on his odometer, the former All-Star's offense is dissolving. His defense disappeared a few years back. As much as the sports world likes comeback stories, Boozer's isn't worth telling for a franchise that needs to be focused on its future.
So, that tightens the spotlight around Hill (27 years old), Davis (25) and Randle (19). Despite Hill's age and fairly forgettable track record, he cannot be dismissed when looking at this team's plans for both today and tomorrow.
Jordan Hill: High Basement, Low Ceiling
According to Hill's resume, this will already be his sixth season in the league.
In a lot of ways, though, it feels like a new beginning. The wardrobe changes that defined the start of his career (three teams in three years) have ceased, but he's still waiting for a workload and a system to give him his first true shot at success.
He spent most of the past two years trying to fit his interior game with former Lakers coach Mike D'Antoni's perimeter-based scheme. While Hill managed to set personal bests in points (9.7), rebounds (7.4), field-goal percentage (54.9) and minutes (20.8) last season, he has said he was not comfortable with his role.
He could not get a feel for D'Antoni's trust in him, but he seems to have captured Scott's confidence already.
"Last year, I was thinking too much about playing," Hill said, per Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News. "If I messed up, I wondered if I would see the floor again. Right now, Byron is relying on me and I'm one of his guys. That really builds confidence in me to come out this year and play my game."
Scott has said he needs to see more from Hill at the defensive end—a common theme for most of this roster—but the coach does have big plans for his high-energy big guy, per Lakers Nation's Serena Winters:
Hill is a hustler, the type of player who can keep the scoreboard moving without having his number called. There is value in what he brings, and the Lakers made it clear they recognized it when they gave him a two-year, $18 million deal this summer (team option for the second season).
However, there is also likely a low ceiling in his future.
The Lakers might not know for certain how much his numbers will grow in an expanded role, but they should know what type of player he can become. That isn't to suggest he'll be a disappointment, but rather to say, "don't expect any major surprises." His career per-36-minute production pegs him as a 15-point, 11.5-rebound performer, and that seems like a reasonable cap for a blue-collar bruiser.
Hill may well wind up with the strongest stat sheet in this frontcourt. If he does, though, that could mean his younger teammates are either not ready or simply not equipped for this stage.
Julius Randle: Bright Future, Cloudy Present
In terms of opportunity, Randle should have the most chances to prove he belongs.
That's partly a reflection of the investment made in the smooth 6'9" forward. Lottery picks are a rarity for the Lakers, and they chose to use their highest in decades to bring him aboard.
The 36-year-old Kobe Bryant's hoops mortality is becoming uncomfortably clear. He sandwiched his rehab from a torn Achilles tendon and a fracture in his left knee around the six appearances he made last season.
The five-time champion and longtime face of the franchise still doesn't have an obvious heir apparent—unless it's Randle. Between Bryant, Scott, Boozer and two-time MVP Steve Nash, the Lakers seem to have the resources in place to help Randle realize his potential.
"It means he can't [bleep] it up," Bryant told reporters regarding the strength of Randle's support staff. "If you [bleep] this up, you're a really big idiot."
That might sound like tremendous pressure, but it's what Randle needs—and wants—to hear. The former Kentucky standout has always seen greatness in his future, though perhaps not the exact kind one might expect.
"I remember I was always taller than everybody when I was younger. People used to call me, like, 'Oh, he's going to be the next Shaq,'" Randle recalled recently. "I'm like, 'No, I don't want to be the next Shaq. I want to be Kobe.'"
Randle's game isn't cut from the Mamba mold, but it's more versatile than that of a traditional power forward. During his 17-point, eight-rebound performance in L.A.'s 94-86 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday, he emptied out a deep bag of offensive tricks.
With Scott looking to run his offense from the inside-out, per Eric Pincus of the Los Angeles Times, Randle's ability to generate scoring chances from both the high and low post will be key.
All of that said, this isn't likely to be a smooth transition. In fact, coming into Wednesday's tilt, Randle was only averaging 6.8 points on 39.1 percent shooting. The sooner he finds a consistent jumper, the less volatility he'll find in his stat sheets.
But, remember, he won't be able to legally crack open an adult beverage until next November. Inconsistency should be the expectation until further notice.
Knowing where he's at and where the Lakers need him to go, they won't put too much on his plate too soon. He'll get his minutes, but it could take a lot for him to steal a starting gig.
"Lakers coaches have already seen how Randle, even when his motor is revved up, defers to Bryant and dumps the ball to him or just wants to set screens for his idol when they play together," wrote Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding. "There's also the thorny issue of Boozer's pride in remaining a member of the starting lineup."
The Lakers should take the cautious route with Randle—at least until he proves he's ready for more—but they have to throw caution to the wind with Davis. The latter comes with minimal risk and a potentially rich reward.
Ed Davis: The Best of Both Worlds
"Few of their players can make a positive impact on both sides of the floor. Davis is one of those few," wrote Bleacher Report's Dan Favale. "Whatever role they give him needs to be gargantuan."
Despite having four years under his belt, Davis still carries a certain sense of the unknown. But it's an intoxicating type of mystery. It's hard to say he has ever failed an NBA test when he's never even seen the paperwork.
He split his first four seasons between the Toronto Raptors and Memphis Grizzlies. He never saw more than 25 minutes a night and made just 58 starts in the 275 games he played. His per-36-minute numbers are impressive—11.9 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.6 blocks—but his stat sheet has never been easy to read thanks to that short leash.
That should change this season.
"It's more of a fresh start," he said, per Medina. "It's about getting an opportunity and being in the right situation. I'll do whatever I can to help a team win."
Davis, of course, doesn't need to figure out how to help this team. His role is pretty clear, and it's an extremely important one for what Scott is trying to build: protecting the basket.
The Lakers don't have another rim deterrent like Davis. Thanks to a 7'0" wingspan and 36" max vertical, per DraftExpress, he has all the physical tools to be an impact defender. And he sees the game the right way to fill that type of role.
"He's so great around the basket," Bryant said of Davis, per ESPN Los Angeles' Jovan Buha. "He's extremely active and he knows how to space very well. He rolls to the basketball very well. [He] has excellent timing and great jumping ability."
Last season, Davis held opponents to 43.8 percent shooting at the rim, per SportVU player tracking data. That was the 14th-lowest rate among all players to face at least two such shots a night (minimum 25 games played). Neither Hill (51.4) nor Boozer (55.4) even ranked inside the top 100 (101st and tied for 180th, respectively).
At the opposite end, Davis sticks to his lane as a pick-and-roll screener and above-the-rim finisher. He has missed more than one shot only once in six preseason games.
If the Lakers put him in spots where he can succeed, there's no telling how high his ceiling could rise. And he's been around long enough to know his role, so he shouldn't suffer through the same inconsistent fits as Randle.
Scott might try to chase as many victories as possible, which would help the playing time of Boozer and Hill. Or the Lakers could decide Randle needs to be tossed in the deep end to see whether he sinks or swims. Scott could even look well outside the box and throw some minutes at the sideline-celebrating master Robert Sacre or stretchy sophomore Ryan Kelly.
But if Scott wants a bridge—from defense to offense, from present to future—then Davis deserves the longest look in this frontcourt. He might have as many question marks as anyone, but the answers to those inquiries could play a pivotal part in helping the Lakers figure out their next step.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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