World Series 2014: Latest Odds, Important Stats for Giants vs. Royals
Two lopsided games later, and the 2014 World Series is all tied up.
The Kansas City Royals were unable to capitalize on their home-field advantage, dropping the first game to the San Francisco Giants. After swiftly returning the favor in Game 2, they'll travel to San Francisco looking to seize the lead on the road.
We could discuss hocus pocus like "Did Kansas City lose/regain its momentum?" or "I know we all said the Royals were a team of destiny two days ago, but are the Giants the team of destiny now? Wait, is it the Royals again? Also, does anybody actually know what destiny means?" Instead, let's instead look at numbers that actually mean something.
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Numbers never lie, but the user can manipulate them to sing a misleading fib. These statistics don't guarantee correlating results throughout the remaining World Series games, but these interesting tidbits could serve some use going forward.
| Kansas City Royals | 10/11 |
| San Francisco Giants | 10/11 |
| Giants in 5 | 6-1 |
| Giants in 6 | 5-1 |
| Giants in 7 | 9-2 |
| Royals in 5 | 11-2 |
| Royals in 6 | 4-1 |
| Royals in 7 | 15-4 |
Odds, via Odds Shark, are updated as of Wednesday, Oct. 22 at 11:45 p.m.
Important Stats
After a sensational start with the San Francisco Giants, Tim Hudson stumbled down the stretch, accruing a 6.62 ERA since September 1. In a rotten September he'd love to forget, Hudson allowed at least three earned runs in all five stars, failing to navigate past the sixth frame all month.
Luckily for the veteran, that number includes two postseason outings, where he has yielded five runs through 13.2 innings. Is he in the clear?
The signs are looking positive, as he collected 13 strikeouts in those two playoff starts without walking a single batter. While everyone will point to how experienced the Giants are, the 39-year-old will make his first World Series start in Game 3.
He expressed his joy during the Giants' victory celebration, courtesy of Yahoo Sports' Mike Oz.
Some might remember that he restrained from offering any free passes until April 25, cementing a 30.2 inning walkless streak to begin the 2014 season. That monumental head start led him to a career-best 1.62 walk rate.
After showing improved restraint during their eight-game postseason win streak, the Royals worked out three walks in Kansas City. Hudson demonstrated the value of precision in April with 31 strikeouts, two walks and a 2.17 ERA. If he gets on that type of roll again, the Giants will move closer to another championship.
2-for-13
When the Royals were slaying opponents left and right and constantly escaping extra-inning scrums, Mike Moustakas frequently found himself at the center of the action. The formerly maligned third baseman caught fire, hitting 7-of-19 with four home runs during the first six games.
Watching from the losing side covering the Baltimore Orioles, MASNsports.com's Steve Melewski laid out the absurdity of that stretch.
Since then, he has faded back into this galaxy, going 2-for-13 with four strikeouts and no walks. Hey, chalk up a No. 9 hitter with a .632 OPS carrying you into the World Series as a victory. Expecting more heroics might be a tad greedy.
On the bright side, he doesn't have to worry about Madison Bumgarner for two more games. A .172/.241/.313 hitter against lefties this season, Moustakas should consider his Game 1 double—one of two extra-base hits on Tuesday night—off the elite lefty as a huge victory.
24.1 Percent
Following a segment about San Francisco's Game 3 starter, let's move on to the man who has a strong case to take the mound Game 4 instead of Ryan Vogelsong.
There are several juicy stats to frame this Yusmeiro Petit endorsement around. One great one is his 2.78 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), an individualized ERA that neutralizes defense and outliers on batted balls.
| 117 | 39/12 | 3.69 | 1.02 | 10.23 | 1.69 | 2.78 |
Vogelsong's FIP this season was more than a full run higher at 3.85. For that matter, Bumgarner's FIP was 3.05.
The bold number above represents his strikeouts-minus-walks percentage (K-BB), which is exactly what it sounds like. Take his walk rate and subtract it from his punchout percentage to get an upgraded gauge of a pitcher's impact over the standard strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Petit spent a large sum of the season in the bullpen before Matt Cain's injury opened up a rotation spot. As a starter, that K-BB rate drops slightly to 22.9 percent. Still pretty darn good, as it ranks eighth among starting pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched.
| 1 | Jose Fernandez | 27.8 |
| 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 27.8 |
| 3 | Chris Sale | 24.7 |
| 4 | Mike Fiers | 23.3 |
| 5 | David Price | 23.1 |
| 6 | Stephen Strasburg | 22.9 |
| 7 | Corey Kluber | 22.9 |
| 8 | Yusmeiro Petit | 22.9 |
| 9 | Carlos Carrasco | 22.5 |
| 10 | Felix Hernandez | 22.2 |
To be fair, he also incurred a 5.03 ERA as a starter, buoyed by 11 home runs in 68 frames. But since we're being fair, he also allowed 11 combined runs in two starts at Coors Field and Citizens Bank Park. AT&T Park and Kauffman Stadium are not those treacherous bandboxes.
At the least, manager Bruce Bochy should expand Petit's bullpen role. Rather than waiting around for the next 18-inning affair, use Petit as the weapon he is during high-leverage situations. In two postseason appearances, Petit has tossed nine scoreless innings with two hits and 11 strikeouts. He's too useful to employ just once during the Fall Classic.
He sure could have come in handy on Wednesday night, when rookie Hunter Strickland allow his fifth home run of the postseason during a five-run sixth inning.
Eight
Strickland is mostly to blame, but the Giants bullpen has allowed eight home runs this postseason. They were fortunate to serve up the first seven with the bases empty. That changed in Game 2, when Omar Infante belted a two-run homer.
Per ESPN Stats & Info, the hard-throwing 26-year-old tied a dubious record.
Meanwhile, Kansas City's bullpen has allowed one homer, and saddling that on the relief pitchers is a technicality. Starter Yordano Ventura gave up the long ball in a misguided relief stint during the American League Wild Card Game.
Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis each tallied a goose egg in the home-run column during the entire 2014 season. Greg Holland surrendered just three, and the entire unit registered a league-low 32 long balls against through 464 innings.
Although the relief units cradled similar playoff numbers into the World Series, the Royals hold a crisp advantage out of the pen.
All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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