Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots: Complete Week 8 Preview for New England
Even after three consecutive victories, it is unclear whether the New England Patriots are high-end Super Bowl contenders, as they have been nearly every season over the past decade. The next six games, in which the Pats will face teams with a current combined record of 28-11, will reveal whether the 2014 rendition holds legitimate championship aspirations.
The leadoff leg of that stretch may seem like the softest game, as the 3-4 Chicago Bears have been plagued by underachieving stars and reports of internal turmoil. Nevertheless, the Bears possess as much overall talent as nearly any team in the league, and desperation figures to drive Chicago to rebound from last week's subpar performance.
Consequently, the Pats will need a more efficient performance than the seesaw 27-25 slugfest they survived against the New York Jets. After playing four games in 18 days, the 10-day break between games is a welcome respite that may help New England recapture the form it exhibited in Weeks 5 and 6. Still, this is a banged-up team in need of its upcoming bye, and any victory will likely require a resilient 60-minute effort.
For complete analysis of Sunday's key players, matchups and game factors, read on to see how the Patriots can kick off this season-defining stretch with a win.
Week 7 Recap
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In contrast to the Week 5 and 6 victories, New England's 27-25 escape over the New York Jets was more a case of survival than a reassertion of the Patriots' dominance. In playing their fourth game over an 18-day stretch, the Pats were clearly a battered team in desperate need of their current 10-day break.
In rushing for 218 yards on 5.1 yards per attempt, the Jets exposed New England's lack of depth in the front seven, a deficiency exacerbated by Chandler Jones' hip injury. The Pats have had issues with their run fits all season and are currently relying on unproven youngsters (Chris Jones, Casey Walker) and veteran castoffs (Alan Branch, Akeem Ayers) to shore up their depth.
At least for one week, New England should be able to rebound. Besides the rest, the Patriots are also facing a Bears offense that is more perimeter-oriented and speed-based, a significant contrast from the ground-and-pound Jets. Chicago is a heavy 11 personnel team (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB), which allows the offense to attack a variety of zones with the quartet of Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte.
Offensively, however, the Patriots derived much more promising takeaways from the victory over the Jets. Shane Vereen played his best game of the season in subbing for Stevan Ridley, compiling 114 yards on just 16 total touches. The Jets attempted to rush just three or four defenders and utilize their coverage to stymie New England's passing game, but Brady carved up New York before the Jets ratcheted up the pressure with more blitzes in the second half.
The Bears prefer to rush just four linemen, although they possess some intriguing "NASCAR" sub-package personnel with Willie Young, Will Sutton and Stephen Paea as interior rushers to complement bookends Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston. The Pats should be healthier on the offensive line this week, however, and the upward-trending unit could allow Brady to exploit a Bears secondary that will likely be missing precocious rookie cornerback Kyle Fuller.
News and Notes
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No Issues With Revis
Darrelle Revis made headlines this week for his tardiness and subsequent dismissal from practice, but according to the The Boston Globe's Ben Volin, there will be no further ramifications for New England's top cornerback:
"Belichick didn’t make a big announcement to the rest of the team about sending Revis home, but one source said, 'The message was definitely sent. The rules apply to everybody.'
And it doesn’t sound as if the relationship between Revis and Belichick is fractured. According to one source, Revis actually returned to the Patriots facility on his own in the afternoon to apologize to Belichick.
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Belichick has never played favorites, even among the best players on the team. Nonetheless, disciplining Revis further during the game, much like he did to Wes Welker during the 2010 postseason, would seem petty given that the veteran has taken accountability for his mistake.
Revis will face one of his greatest challenges of the season this Sunday, regardless of whether he shadows Brandon Marshall or Alshon Jeffery. Oddly, Revis has performed better against ostensibly tougher receivers, containing A.J. Green and Sammy Watkins but getting burned by the likes of James Jones and Eric Decker. In one of the week's highest-profile matchups, expect Revis to bring his best.
Forte the Key to Chicago's Offense?
While Chicago's passing game receives plenty of national attention, veteran running back Matt Forte remains the steadiest player on the Bears offense. As ESPNBoston.com's Tedy Bruschi illustrates in his weekly game preview, Forte can stress a defense with his versatility:
"The first thing to stress with Forte defensively is identifying where he is. Is he in the "home" position directly behind the quarterback under center? Is he offset in the shotgun? Then, once you identify him, it's determining the coverage and where your help is because Forte can run the full route tree; he's that skilled. Patriots linebackers have been beaten in the flat all season long, and I'm sure the Bears have seen that. After the defense identifies where Forte is, then it's about covering him through the entire down...this offense counts on running after the catch.
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New England has not faced many multidimensional running backs this season, but it has had a spotty track record. While the Patriots have contained the likes of Giovani Bernard and Fred Jackson, Knowshon Moreno and Jamaal Charles also wreaked havoc on their defense. With Jerod Mayo out, the Pats no longer have their savviest coverage linebacker to combat Forte.
I'll have a more detailed breakdown of how the Pats may defend Forte, but given New England's strength on the perimeter, this matchup holds significant implications for whether the Bears establish an offensive rhythm. If New England can stymie the screens and angle routes from Forte, it will force Chicago to play into the Pats' hands.
Ayers as Chandler Jones Replacement?
Though he has not yet blossomed into an elite pass-rusher, Chandler Jones' loss remains a debilitating blow to the defense. The Pats do not have a single player who can replace Jones' versatility and consistency as a rare three-down lineman. However, as the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe opines, the newly acquired Akeem Ayers could inherit the sub-package edge-rushing portion of Jones' role:
"He has registered eight of his nine career sacks from the edge, with three as a left defensive end, two as a right defensive end, two as a 4-3 outside linebacker who hovered on the left edge and one in the same role on the right edge. If the Patriots want to squeeze immediate production out of him, they should use Ayers as a situational pass rusher.
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As a more traditional 4-3 "Sam" linebacker, there is a bit of overlap between Ayers and Dont'a Hightower. However, the Pats have utilized Hightower in a variety of roles this season, and given his success in limited edge-rushing opportunities, it seems reasonable to assert that he deserves to replace Jones in that area more so than Ayers.
Indeed, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Hightower has already accumulated four sacks, five hits and six hurries, exceeding his entire 2013 totals in the former two categories. Ayers may develop into a complementary edge-rusher who can contribute 10 to 15 sub-package snaps in time, but realistically, it is difficult to ask much more of a midseason acquisition.
Injury Report
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| Chandler Jones | DE | Did Not Participate |
| Dan Connolly | OG/C | Limited Participation |
| Dominique Easley | DE/DT | Limited Participation |
| Nate Ebner | S | Limited Participation |
| Cameron Fleming | OT/OG | Limited Participation |
| Matthew Slater | ST | Limited Participation |
| Bryan Stork | C | Limited Participation |
| Tom Brady | QB | Full Participation |
| Brandon Browner | CB | Full Participation |
| Jamie Collins | LB | Full Participation |
| Dont'a Hightower | LB | Full Participation |
| Devin McCourty | S | Full Participation |
*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com.
Jones' reported monthlong absence is clearly devastating, and it could result in more snaps for first-rounder Dominique Easley. The rookie has missed time with nagging shoulder and knee issues but has logged just 35.5 percent of the defensive snaps during games in which he has been active. Given his versatility as a 7-technique as well as an interior rusher, expect that number to shoot up as Easley receives heavier base and sub-package usage.
The Pats should also receive a much-needed boost in offensive line depth. After missing last week's contest, the trio of Cameron Fleming, Bryan Stork and Dan Connolly all look like reasonable propositions to return to the lineup. The latter two are especially important to monitor, as their returns would restore New England's most successful starting offensive line combination.
The 10-day respite has helped the battered Patriots, who should have a fuller roster for the Chicago and Denver contests before their Week 10 bye. As New England heads into its most daunting stretch of the season, the Pats cannot afford many more long-term injuries against the stiff upcoming competition.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner vs. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery
This is exactly the type of matchup New England envisioned when signing the two veteran press-cover cornerbacks this offseason. While it would be presumptuous to assume that Chicago's Pro Bowl tandem could be totally shut down, Revis and Browner make the Pats better equipped to combat the Bears' towering duo than nearly any other team in the league.
Obviously, it is no secret that the Bears offense revolves around the big-play ability of Marshall and Jeffery. The two have already combined for 109 targets on 264 Jay Cutler throws this season, a number that would likely be higher if not for Marshall's persistent ankle woes.
It's unclear if the Pats would continue shadowing, but if they do, expect Revis to follow the more versatile Marshall. The 30-year-old vet continues to wreak havoc from the slot, as his 84.6 percent catch rate from that position ranks second in the league. Marshall has lined up in the slot on 50.9 percent of his snaps thus far, but he will also line up as an off-line flanker and a wide split end.
Conversely, Jeffery is a more of a traditional outside "X" receiver who has developed into one of the league's premier deep threats. Though his big-play volume is down from last season, he has still reeled in five passes that traveled at least 20 yards in the air, seventh-most in the league. Browner does not have the speed to keep up with Jeffery, but his press technique could prevent those slow-developing routes from ever coming to fruition.
Jamie Collins vs. Matt Forte
If Jeffery and Marshall represent Chicago's home run threats, Forte is the relentless on-base demon that keeps the offense churning. Forte leads the league in receptions with 52, a rarity for a running back, and has accumulated a team-high 62 targets. With 1.96 yards per pass route run, Forte ranks second in per-play receiving efficiency among running backs, illustrating his immense three-down value.
The Pats would likely have matched Forte with Jerod Mayo, but Mayo's season-ending knee injury has thrown the linebacker unit into flux. Thus, Collins will need to rediscover the form he flashed last postseason when he harnessed his rare athleticism and blanketed tight ends and running backs in coverage.
Collins' widely anticipated second-year breakout has not manifested itself, as he has appeared tentative in run support, perhaps a byproduct of his nagging thigh injury. He has done reasonably well in coverage, however, allowing just 15 completions on 30 targets for 105 yards and no touchdowns. In addition, just three of those receptions have gone for more than 10 yards.
In contrast, Forte has already had 17 receptions of 10 or more yards this season, as his vision on screen passes is a deadly early-down weapon. The Pats figure to devote multiple players to Forte, but Collins' speed makes him uniquely well-equipped to handle Chicago's most consistent offensive weapon.
Sebastian Vollmer vs. Willie Young
When examining Chicago's defensive line, free-agent signings Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston look like the headliners. However, a less-heralded free-agent acquisition, Willie Young, has emerged as the Bears' best defensive player this season.
After posting six sacks over his first four seasons, Young has broken through with seven through the first seven weeks, a sack total that ranks second behind only Von Miller. As a sub-package fixture, Young will move around the formation, but 62.9 percent of his rushes have come from the defensive left side.
Thus, Sebastian Vollmer figures to see the majority of Young's rushes. Apart from a Week 1 shellacking at the hands of Cameron Wake, Vollmer has been New England's most consistent offensive lineman. With just 11 pressures allowed on 250 pass-blocking plays, Vollmer's 96.5 percent pass-blocking efficiency ranks ninth among all tackles this season.
Chicago does have pass-rushing depth, as defensive tackles Jeremiah Ratliff, Stephen Paea and Will Sutton have also had their moments this year. But Young has been the Bears' most consistent edge-rusher, and if Vollmer can contain the surprising fifth-year vet, Tom Brady should exploit Chicago's depleted back seven.
X-Factor: Brandon LaFell
Though the Pats will never become a vertically based passing team with Brady at the helm, LaFell has emerged to provide New England a reasonable facsimile of a perimeter threat, something this team has lacked since Randy Moss' departure. Apart from Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, LaFell is the only Patriots receiver with more than five catches of 10 or more yards, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
As a zone-heavy team, the Bears keep their cornerbacks tethered to a single side of the field. With Tim Jennings playing left cornerback exclusively, LaFell is unlikely to see much of Chicago's veteran corner, as he generally lines up on the offensive left side.
That would normally draw Kyle Fuller, but the impressive first-round rookie may not suit up due to a broken hand, although it's an injury that does not need surgery. Fifth-year pro Sherrick McManis played his first significant snaps of the season in Fuller's stead last week, faring well in conceding just two catches for 16 yards.
Nonetheless, McManis is a stopgap solution to the injury woes in Chicago's secondary, as the Bears have been without Week 1 starters Charles Tillman and Chris Conte while also employing a rotating door in the slot. LaFell has gained steam as an increasing focal point within New England's offense, and a favorable matchup could lead to a big day for him and the passing game in general.
Prediction
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Despite their record, the Bears present significant difficulties for any team due to their proliferation of individual talent throughout their roster. However, Chicago has struggled to put together a complete 60-minute effort this season, and for a Pats team rediscovering its consistency, that could prove auspicious.
Labeling Sunday's contest a "must-win" is going too far, but there is a legitimate possibility that the Pats could be underdogs or coin-flip favorites in each of their next five games. Even at 5-2, New England possesses less margin for error than its record would suggest, as the Patriots will play the third-hardest remaining schedule in the league based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.
Even with injuries throughout the roster, the Pats possess ideal offensive personnel to exploit Chicago's deficiencies with defensive speed. And while the Marshall-Jeffery tandem is daunting for any team, Revis and Browner represent the rare cornerback duo with enough size to disrupt the Bears' towering receiver duo.
New England has not yet peaked, but it is also gaining steam as players begin to reach their comfort zones within the system. The Patriots and Bears possess a similar talent level, but given New England's superior execution in recent weeks, expect the home team to pull out a victory as it enters the teeth of its schedule.
Prediction: Patriots 32, Bears 25
*All stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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