5 NBA Teams That Will Greatly Exceed Expectations During 2014-15 Season
Quick, grab your glass-half-full-seeing goggles. Optimistic NBA projections are among us.
Preseason predictions aren't inflexible doctrines. Many of them are overly harsh. Some NBA teams are generating too much hype (Philadelphia 76ers), while others aren't receiving enough attention (Cleveland Cavaliers).
Consider this your official crash course in righting those injustices.
By "injustices," we mean actual injustices. We want to identify teams that will greatly exceed the expectations laid before them. Don't enter the classroom looking for a defense of why the San Antonio Spurs will actually win 65 games instead of 60, or why the Indiana Pacers offense won't actually explore new depths of awful without Paul George and Lance Stephenson.
Rather than acknowledge marginal or slight deviations from 2014-15 expectations, the idea is to go after the drastic differences. These positively charged disparities will be found by looking at last year's win totals, taking a gander at forecasts for the forthcoming season, evaluating talent on rosters and then, somewhat subjectively, figuring out where said team really belongs.
On that note, let's start putting these goggles to good use.
*2014-15 win projections come courtesy of The Westgate SuperBook, via ESPN.com.
Minnesota Timberwolves
1 of 5
2013-14 Record: 40-42
2014-15 Over/Under Win Projection: 25.5
If there's a projected 25- or 26-win team that could shock the world, it's these guys—the Kevin Love-lost Minnesota Timberwolves.
Playing in the mega-brutal Western Conference—which, by my count, has at least 67 playoff contenders—doesn't typically bode well for rebuilding teams months removed from relinquishing their best player. But come on. This team is alive with young, promising talent who can make immediate impacts.
Andrew Wiggins' preseason has been rocky, but he's a top-notch defender with hops and explosiveness that will help him survive on the offensive end. Zach LaVine is basically the same player, minus the defense, plus a jump shot. Placing these two alongside the pass-forever Ricky Rubio and the equally athletic Thaddeus Young and Gorgui Dieng is going to be a boon for Minnesota's transition offense.
Proven performers such as Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer and Mo Williams give the Timberwolves a nice balance. They ranked in the Top 10 of offensive efficiency and the top half of defensive efficiency last year. It's not entirely impossible to believe they'll rank in the top half of both this coming season.
Making the playoffs is out the question, as is eclipsing .500. But assuming health, and barring any blockbuster trades—Chase Budinger's departure would not count—this is a team that can and will toss back 30-plus wins like they're perfectly prepared deep fried cheese curds.
This is to say, the Timberwolves are going to be better than most think.
New York Knicks
2 of 5
2013-14 Record: 37-45
2014-15 Over/Under Win Projection: 40.5
I know, I know. Defense, Andrea Bargnani and stuff. Still, the New York Knicks belong here.
Around 40 or 41 wins seems like a fair prediction given they registered just 37 in 2013-14. Their 24th-ranked defense could feasibly be even worse after shipping out Tyson Chandler and considering they house fewer defensive stalwarts than most have pinkies.
At the same time, the Eastern Conference is wide open. Injuries to Paul George and Bradley Beal have seriously hindered the early exploits of the Pacers and Washington Wizards, while the Miami Heat are no longer frightening—or relatively deep—without LeBron James.
Even the more intimidating products—Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Cavaliers—have to iron out the chemistry kinks that come with new additions and roster turnover. Really, there are only two teams capable of running away from the rest: Chicago and Cleveland. Every other squad is on equal or close-to-equal footing.
Indeed, the Knicks have a transition period of their own to combat. The triangle offense head coach Derek Fisher is installing takes time to grasp and perfect. But the Knicks are already showing progress. They have 105 assists on 165 made field goals through five preseason games, putting sufficient distance between themselves and the iso-heavy team of last year.
"Every day we're learning something new, figuring out something different," Carmelo Anthony told reporters after New York's preseason loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, via the Knicks on Twitter.
Eventually, the Knicks will figure it all out—likely just in time to easily eclipse 41 wins and secure a return to the playoffs.
Utah Jazz
3 of 5
2013-14 Record: 25-57
2014-15 Over/Under Win Projection: 25.5
Purchase a ticket to the Utah Jazz's youth movement. Seriously, you won't regret it.
As yours truly has previously outlined, the Jazz are not tracking toward a surprise playoff berth. They are not, however, a 25-, 26-win team anymore, either. That was so last year.
This year, they're armed with even more talent. Gordon Hayward, Trey Burke, Dante Exum, Rudy Gobert(!), Alec Burks, Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood are all young'uns with tremendous upside who render Utah the deepest rebuilding team of all.
And let us not forget rookie head coach Quin Snyder. He's making his presence felt in a great way, per Grantland's Zach Lowe:
"We definitely didn’t award enough credit for Quin Snyder’s style bump. It was clear given his work at prior stops: Utah was going to shoot a ton of 3s and try some really interesting stuff on offense. Snyder watches film and sees crazy play-design possibilities that no one else sees. Everyone is jacking 3s for Utah in the preseason — Favors, Kanter, Jazz Bear, Matt Harpring.
"
Snyder's play style significantly—and mercifully—deviates from that of his predecessor, Tyrone Corbin. The Jazz are no longer a pace-slaying massacre and floor-spacing catastrophe. They ranked 26th and 25th in pace and three-point shooting, respectively, last season. Things are different now.
Different enough for us to believe the Jazz are going to flirt with 30-plus victories in a stacked Western Conference.
Atlanta Hawks
4 of 5
2013-14 Record: 38-44
2014-15 Over/Under Win Projection: 40.5
Times are changing for the Atlanta Hawks more than most tend to realize.
Coach Mike Budenholzer has brought system basketball to Atlanta, incorporating elements of the Spurs' motion-heavy offense into his team's attack. The shift began paying dividends last season, despite the Hawks finishing six games under .500. They closed the year with the league's best assist percentage, and their position-less blueprint confused and nearly dethroned the top-seeded Pacers.
"It’s a lot of reading (the court)," newcomer Thabo Sefolosha said of Atlanta's system, per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Chris Vivlamore. “Everybody has a high I.Q. on the basketball court and that is what is required with the system that we play. It’s not easy to learn but at the same time it’s something I enjoy doing, just moving without the ball, reading guys, moving to where the ball is going and I can get my shots."
With Al Horford—who continues to work off the rust that comes with a prolonged absence—back in the fold, the Hawks offense only stands to improve. It ranked 15th in efficiency last season and they're already showing signs of an offensive uprising.
Through six preseason contests, the Hawks have handed out 149 assists on 207 made field goals. No other team has assisted on a higher percentage (72) of its converted buckets.
Sure, it's only preseason. But the Hawks are moving the ball like a top-10—perhaps top-seven—offense.
Mediocrity is almost in their rearview. And so, too, are the recurrent mid-30, low-40 win totals it brings.
New Orleans Pelicans
5 of 5
2013-14 Record: 34-48
2014-15 Over/Under Win Projection: 41.5
Pretend this doesn't have almost everything to do with Anthony Davis we shall not. Although he left the New Orleans Pelicans' latest preseason bout against the Washington Wizards with a sprained right wrist, his frequent injury woes aren't enough to curb enthusiasm.
The Western Conference is, again, super tough. Rare is the 30-something-win lottery team that suddenly flirts with playoff contention. That kind of leap is considered implausible when dwelling among so many powerhouses. But that's where the Pelicans' greatest strength comes in, as The Bird Writes' David Fisher, well, writes:
"Anthony Davis. Expanding on that basic premise, the near limitless heights to which one attempts to define AD's ceiling as a basketball player. Davis just completed the most efficient season a 20 year old has ever recorded in NBA history - this is a player whose biggest strength coming out of college was his defense while his offense was anticipated to be somewhere between "project" and "limited". Those projections have proven to woefully undersell his potential on the offensive end.
"
Davis is basically Godzilla with a more frightening wingspan. The Pelicans have an opportunity to make the playoffs because of him alone.
Surrounding him with healthy talent only makes Davis and the Pelicans more dangerous. If Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans and Ryan Anderson—along with Davis—manage to stay healthy, New Orleans has a first-rate offense on its hands. The team finished 13th in efficiency last year while fending off mutinous injury bugs; creeping into the top 10 or seven isn't out of the question with more able bodies in tow.
There's even a chance the defense leaves its bottom-feeding status (25th in efficiency) behind. Omer Asik is a beast on the defensive end, and rumor has it Davis can protect the rim while simultaneously defending three opposing players on the perimeter. Good luck scoring at the iron against these two.
Too much of the Pelicans' immediate fate is tied to injury-prone players remaining whole, but the ceiling of this team led by a healthy Davis and his able-bodied minions is too high to ignore. This isn't just a team with above-.500 potential. It's the closest thing to last year's Phoenix Suns the NBA might see.
Only these Pelicans, unlike those Suns, may just sneak into the playoffs.
