Heisman Trophy 2014 Stock Watch: Who Is Rising and Falling Post-Week 8?
Week 8 was highlighted by a Top Five game between Notre Dame and Florida State that had massive implications on the race for the College Football Playoff and a similarly important effect on the race for the Heisman Trophy.
According to the Bovada numbers at Odds Shark, Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson and Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston were two of the top seven pre-Week 8 Heisman candidates, and the result of a head-to-head matchup can go a long way when the ballots are due in December.
Elsewhere, an upset in Morgantown, West Virginia, had a sizable effect on two players' Heisman chances—one positive, one negative. The same can be said of a 59-0 blowout in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
We compiled this list using the aforementioned Bovada numbers at Odds Shark, which were updated earlier this week on account of what happened Saturday. It does not reflect players such as Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace, whose odds held firm at 20-1.
Sound off below to let us know who you think should win.
Falling: Kenny Hill, QB, Texas A&M
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Previous Odds: 50-1 | Current Odds: n/a
Even after consecutive losses to Mississippi State and Ole Miss, Kenny Hill remained on the Heisman board because of his stats. Most of it came in garbage time, sure, but he still managed to escape those games with 797 yards of total offense and six touchdowns.
But then the Alabama game happened.
Hill and Texas A&M were blitzkrieged by the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, this time failing to produce anything for 60 full minutes. The result was a 59-0 loss—the first shutout Kevin Sumlin has ever been a part of as a head coach—in which Hill had only 127 yards of total offense, no touchdowns (obviously) and an interception.
After the game, I wrote about the potential of Hill getting benched for true freshman Kyle Allen. The article included a poll in which 73.6 percent of voters said Allen should start the next game. Sumlin, for his part, made it sound as if he plans to reopen the competition, per Suzanne Halliburton of the Austin American-Statesman.
So…yeah. It's safe to say the "Trill" is gone from Aggieland.
Falling: Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma
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Previous Odds: 66-1 | Current Odds: n/a
Like Kenny Hill, Oklahoma freshman Samaje Perine went from long shot to no longer on the board after his team lost in Week 8.
Perine rushed for 89 yards and one touchdown on 24 carries, a decent showing against a solid run defense but not what one expects from a Heisman-contending tailback. More importantly, the Sooners lost 31-30 at home, falling to 5-2 for the season and landing outside the realistic playoff discussion.
The only shot Perine had at winning the Heisman was intimately tied to Oklahoma's team success. He didn't even begin the year as the starter, so his stats, while good, were never going to be Heisman-worthy in a vacuum. They were only going to be Heisman-worthy if the best offensive player on the Big 12 champion produced them.
Oklahoma does not look like the future Big 12 champion.
Rising: Rakeem Cato, QB, Marshall
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Previous Odds: 66-1 | Current Odds: 50-1
Rakeem Cato is a long shot to win the Heisman. A long, long shot to win the Heisman. Even with an undefeated record, he does not have the statistical merit that Jordan Lynch of Northern Illinois had last season, when Lynch became the first Group of Five Heisman finalist since Colt Brennan of Hawaii in 2007.
Then again…Marshall is slowly creeping up The Associated Press rankings, currently checking in at No. 23. As long as it keeps winning games, it will continue to creep up as other teams lose. And it's not like Cato, who just broke Russell Wilson's FBS record with a touchdown pass in his 39th consecutive game, does not have a compelling case to make.
The story of the early part of the season has been chaos. The rankings were shredded in Week 6 and have still not been restored to order. The prudent mind assumes that it will all come together at some point, that the best teams in the country will finish with zero losses or one loss and yield a Heisman candidate because of it.
But if, by some chance, the chaos doubles down on itself, and Marshall finishes the year undefeated among a sea of two-loss teams, it will get harder and harder to ignore what Cato is doing.
Is it likely? Nope.
But it's more likely now than it was before West Virginia beat Baylor.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Falling: Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor
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Previous Odds: 11-2 | Current Odds: 33-1
One week after leading a manic comeback against TCU—a game in which his team gained 782 yards and scored 61 points—Bryce Petty and Baylor put up a stinker in a 41-27 loss at West Virginia.
Petty finished 16-of-36 passing for 223 yards and two touchdowns, completing less than 45 percent of his throws for the second time in three games. Only five Baylor drives went for more than 20 yards and only three went for more than 40, the first 13 of its points coming off turnovers and short fields. The Bears gained only 318 yards of total offense for the game—their lowest total since September 2010.
Petty never looked comfortable against the Mountaineers and couldn't connect on the deep ball with the same efficacy he enjoyed against TCU in Week 7. He also lost a starting offensive lineman, right tackle Troy Baker, for the season with a torn ACL. Starting left guard Desmine Hilliard was lost for the season one week prior.
None of this bodes well for Petty's Heisman chances, which at this point are officially on life support. His team lost, his stats are nowhere near where they need to be to compensate for a loss and the depth of his offensive line is being tested a la what happened to Marcus Mariota and Oregon earlier this year.
Sell your Petty stock, and sell it fast.
Rising: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
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Previous Odds: n/a | Current Odds: 25-1
Kevin White has been the best player on what (one could argue) has been the most surprising team in the country this season.
For that, he deserves consideration.
The 6'3" senior caught eight passes for 132 yards and two touchdowns in West Virginia's 41-27 win over Baylor, also drawing 60 yards in pass-interference penalties. If you're looking for a "Heisman Moment," his effortless one-handed catch for what proved to be the game-winning touchdown should be good enough to suffice.
White leads the country with 1,020 receiving yards and ranks No. 2 with 69 catches. He is the third receiver in the last 15 years to start a season with seven straight 100-yard receiving games, joining Biletnikoff Award winners Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech, 2007) and Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State, 2010) in accomplishing that feat.
West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen was the offensive coordinator for both of those Biletnikoff seasons, coaching Crabtree at Texas Tech and Blackmon at Oklahoma State. He is not unfamiliar with fostering this type of success, having also coached Stedman Bailey to the WVU record for receiving yards in 2012.
"[White has] improved to the point where he's in that discussion now," said Holgorsen in comparing his current star with his former stars, per Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazzette. "And, again, he keeps getting better. I think his best football is ahead of him."
A scary thought, indeed.
Rising: J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
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Previous Odds: 50-1 | Current Odds: 20-1
The competition hasn't been great (or even very good), but J.T. Barrett has posted record-breaking numbers for a freshman quarterback in the four games since losing to Virginia Tech in Week 2.
Most recently, he completed 19-of-31 passes for 261 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions and rushed seven times for 107 yards and two touchdowns in a blowout win over Rutgers, leaving him with the following splits since Week 3:
| CMP % | YDS/Game | TD:INT | Rating | |
| First Two Games | 47.7 | 282.5 | 3:4 | 137.0 |
| Last Four Games | 71.7 | 358.3 | 17:1 | 198.7 |
For the season, Barrett ranks No. 3 in the country (and No. 2 among healthy players) in QB rating, trailing only Heisman favorite Marcus Mariota and Clemson's Deshaun Watson. And he has looked just as good on film, where his improved downfield accuracy and command of the offense jump off tape, as his numbers have looked on paper.
Critics will harp for longer than they should on the strength of Ohio State's schedule, but the facts of Barrett's case hold strong.
He is playing Heisman voters' favorite position (quarterback). He is posting Heisman voters' favorite thing (stats). And he's doing it for Heisman voters' favorite type of team (a national-title contender).
A win at Michigan State Nov. 8 would achieve the dual-benefit of quieting strength-of-schedule critics and putting the Buckeyes on track to win the Big Ten. If he plays well for 60 minutes in East Lansing, Barrett could climb into the role of a front-runner.
Rising: Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska
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Previous Odds: 25-1 | Current Odds: 20-1
Ameer Abdullah rebounded strong from his worst performance of the season, rushing 23 times for 146 yards and four touchdowns in a deceptively competitive 38-17 win at Northwestern.
The Wildcats led 17-14 at halftime and for most of the third quarter until Abdullah put the Huskers on his back, gaining 110 yards on 13 touches (three of which went for one-yard touchdown runs) in the span of three possessions. When the fusillade was over, Nebraska led 35-17 and coasted the rest of the way.
Abdullah is the obvious best player for a one-loss team that has an outside chance of making the playoff if it runs the table and has enough things break right. Specifically, it would need Michigan State to also finish 11-1, setting up a rematch with the Spartans in the Big Ten title game that might serve as a de facto CFP quarterfinal.
Unfortunately, Abdullah has no chance to avenge his 24-carry, 45-yard performance at Michigan State until after the Heisman ceremony, which modulates his chances. Regardless, Abdullah has a shot as long as Nebraska doesn't lose another regular-season game.
Rising: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
8 of 11Previous Odds: 20-1 | Current Odds: 18-1
Will Jameis Winston win a second Heisman in 2014? Probably not. But he played that answer up from "Hell no!" with his second-half performance against Notre Dame, and for that, his stock is rising.
Winston completed 15-of-16 passes for 181 yards and a touchdown in the third and fourth quarters, leading the Seminoles to their 23rd consecutive win overall and seventh of the season. Twenty of those 23 wins have come with Winston as the starting quarterback, the most consecutive wins by a QB to start his career in FBS history.
On merit alone, Winston has to be considered a Heisman candidate. Not a front-runner, but a candidate. His efficiency stats are down from last season, and he's only thrown 13 touchdowns to six interceptions, but he does rank in the nation's Top 10 with 313 passing yards per game. And his team is still, you know, undefeated.
At the same time, the salient issues Chris Huston of Heisman Pundit raised in an August article titled "Jameis Winston Will Not Win a Second Heisman" have not disappeared. If anything, the stigma against Jameis for his off-field contretemps has intensified.
In order to repeat, Winston will need to remain next-to-perfect while the rest of the Heisman front-runners fall off. He is still in a pretty deep hole after missing the Clemson game due to a suspension.
But by playing his best half of the season against a quality opponent during the most-watched college football game of the year, he moved one shovel full of dirt closer to digging his way out.
Falling: Everett Golson, QB, Notre Dame
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Previous Odds: 11-2 | Current Odds: 18-1
Everett Golson played as well as anyone could have hoped in a 31-27 loss at Florida State, completing 31-of-52 passes for 313 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions and almost willing his team to a frantic comeback. Even though the Irish came up short, Golson's performance likely helped his public repute.
But helping his public repute and helping his Heisman stock are different things entirely. Golson will not win this award if Notre Dame does not make the CFP. His numbers will not be big enough unless they are coupled with having led his team to the national semifinal.
Notre Dame still has a chance to get there, and if it runs the table to go 11-1, the pluck Golson showed in Tallahassee might actually come back to help him. For now, though, the loss dilutes his margin for error, as one more loss against USC, Arizona State, Louisville or even Navy or Northwestern would end his Heisman campaign.
His betting odds went down three-fold for a reason.
Rising: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
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Previous Odds: 33-1 | Current Odds: 18-1
Amari Cooper played another great game before Alabama took its foot off the pedal against Texas A&M, finishing with eight receptions for 140 yards and two touchdowns.
His stats are on par with those of Kevin White for the season, checking in a few strokes below because Alabama has been blowing teams out more than West Virginia. Both receivers played well in their head-to-head matchup in Week 1, which Alabama won, 33-23.
The theory behind Cooper's candidacy is simple: Alabama has a chance to finish the year ranked No. 1 in the polls and with the best offense in the country. If it does, the Heisman voters would seek to recognize its best player. Cases could be made for quarterback Blake Sims and running back T.J. Yeldon, but it doesn't take long to watch an Alabama game and figure out that Cooper is the superior player.
The last non-quarterback to win the Heisman was Alabama running back Mark Ingram under similar circumstances in 2009.
History has a way of repeating itself.
Rising: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
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Previous Odds: 3-1 | Current Odds: 3-2
Marcus Mariota's Heisman odds doubled after a 45-20 win over Washington, moving from 3-1 to 3-2 (which is the same thing as 1.5-1). The former Heisman favorite can once again claim that title, zipping past idle Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott, who sits at 9-4.
The adjustment isn't as much about what Mariota did as what his offense proved against the Huskies. Specifically, it proved that the offensive line was not a one-game wonder against UCLA and that Mariota will not be in danger of having his head lopped off every time he drops back (as he did earlier in the season).
The Ducks scored five touchdowns in the span of six possessions against a solid Washington defense, punting after their first drive and never again for the rest of the game. On the season, Mariota has thrown for 1,957 yards and 19 touchdowns without an interception and has a QB rating of 191.0 that is not far behind the FBS record Russell Wilson set at Wisconsin in 2011 (191.78).
Prescott would likely win the Heisman if the award were handed out today—but it's not. Mississippi State has more losable games left on its schedule than Oregon, and Mariota will finish with more impressive numbers than Prescott if their teams both end up with one loss.
Ostensibly, that explains the change in favorite.
Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeighDAT
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
