Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cleveland Browns are 3-3 straight up and 3-2-1 against the spread on the season, but they're also only 4-10-1 ATS the last 15 times they've been lined as favorites at home. The Oakland Raiders, meanwhile, are 0-6 SU and 3-3 ATS this year, but they're also 8-3 ATS the last 11 times they've been lined as underdogs on the road. The Browns will be favored over the Raiders when the teams meet Sunday afternoon in Cleveland.

Point spread: Browns opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 20.7-10.4 Browns

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

The Raiders are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS under interim head coach Tony Sparano, after losing at home to Arizona last week 24-13. Oakland only trailed the Cardinals 14-13 late into the third quarter but just couldn't get its defense off the field and came up short.

The week before the Raiders gave San Diego all it could handle, leading by a touchdown with 10 minutes to go before allowing the last 10 points of the game. Oakland remains winless on the season, but it's covered as a six-point dog at the Jets, as a 14-point dog at New England and as a seven-point dog against the Chargers. And two of those three teams are better than the Browns.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns suffered a letdown last week, losing at Jacksonville 24-6, a week after blasting Pittsburgh 31-10. Cleveland played poorly last week, but only trailed the Jags 10-6 midway through the fourth quarter before allowing Jacksonville to tack on two late touchdowns. So the Browns are now 6-3 SU, 6-1-2 ATS in games Brian Hoyer has started at quarterback for them.

Cleveland is also 2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS at home this season. The Browns rank 10th in the league in total offense and sixth in rushing at 132 yards per game, and while their defense ranks 29th overall it's allowed just 34 points over its last two games, after giving up 105 points through its first four contests.

Smart Pick

The Browns stunk last week, but they're better than that. They can run the ball, and their defense has been better as of late. Meanwhile, Oakland just hasn't shown enough yet to deserve any recommendation of financial backing. So in expectation of a bounce-back effort the smart pick here goes with Cleveland, minus the points.

Betting trends

• Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last seven games when playing Cleveland
• Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last six games at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.