10 Crucial Stats That Project the 2014 World Series Champion

You can’t predict baseball, they say. Yet, when it comes to the postseason, that’s exactly what we attempt to do, using any relevant statistic, trend or storyline to contextualize individual performances and head-to-head matchups.

After all, with 162 regular-season games and three playoff series in the books, it’s not as though there’s a shortage of information.

With the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants set to square off in the World Series starting Tuesday night, it’s time to take an in-depth look at some of the statistics that define the two teams.

Here are 10 crucial stats that could project the 2014 World Series winner.

San Francisco Giants and the Designated Hitter

The Giants will have the opportunity to use a designated hitter in (at least) the first two games of the World Series, which means we’re about to see a lot more of Michael Morse and his flowing locks.

Morse, who missed most of September as well as the team’s first two postseason series with a left oblique strain, served as a pinch-hitter exclusively against the Cardinals in the NLCS, coming off the bench in the late innings on four separate occasions (2-for-4 overall).

The 32-year-old slugger became the first right-handed batter to homer for the Giants in the 2014 postseason, with a dramatic, game-tying home run off Pat Neshek in the eighth inning of Game 5 of the NLCS, setting the stage for Travis Ishikawa’s heroics in the following frame.

With 16 home runs and 32 doubles in 131 games during the regular season, Morse is one of the few legitimate power threats on the Giants. Now that he’s fully healthy, it’ll be interesting to see whether his presence in the middle of the lineup affects the approach of Kansas City’s starting pitchers early in the series.

The Royals Dig the Long Ball

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

The 95 home runs hit by the Kansas City Royals during the regular season was the lowest total in the major leagues. Well, it turned out the Royals were just saving all the power for October.

The Royals’ offense has combined for eight home runs and 11 doubles in eight games over three postseason series, with 27.4 percent of the team’s total hits going for extra bases, and they’re also batting .269/.365/.343 with 28 RBI in 67 at-bats with runners in scoring position.

On top of that, four of those eight bombs have been hit in “late/close” situations, which is defined by Baseball Reference as “plate appearances in the seventh or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.”

In terms of splits, seven homers have been hit by left-handed batters—four courtesy of Mike Moustakas—while Alcides Escobar’s solo home run against Baltimore in Game 2 of the ALCS represents the Royals’ only postseason home run by a right-handed batter.

Madison Bumgarner

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One of Major League Baseball’s true aces, Madison Bumgarner finished the regular season with an 18-10 record, 2.98 ERA and career-high 219 strikeouts in 217.1 innings.

After throwing a complete-game shutout with 10 strikeouts in the Wild Card Game, Bumgarner, 25, took the loss in Game 3 of the NLDS when a throwing error cost him the game. The left-hander rebounded with a gem in Game 1 of the NLCS, though, running his postseason scoreless streak on the road to a record 26.2 innings.

Bumgarner went pitch-for-pitch against fellow ace Adam Wainwright in Game 5 of the NLCS, allowing three earned runs over eight innings of work to set up the late-game heroics. Unsurprisingly, he was named MVP of the series after posting a 1.72 ERA with 12 strikeouts in 15.2 innings.

Next up, the Fall Classic—something Bumgarner knows a thing or two about.

Bumgarner is yet to surrender a run in the World Series, as he’s allowed just 10 baserunners and struck out 14 batters in 15 innings over two starts. In his postseason career, he owns a 2.67 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with 60 strikeouts in 67.1 innings (11 appearances, 10 starts).

MadBum’s only start against the Royals came back on Aug. 8 at Kauffman Stadium, when the left-hander took a tough-luck loss despite throwing a complete game. Bumgarner allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits over eight innings, throwing 85 of 123 pitches for strikes.

Giants Hitters vs. Changeups, Cutters

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San Francisco’s hitters saw the second-most changeups during the regular season (10.9 percent) among all NL teams, trailing only the Padres (11.9 percent), while their minus-10.5 pitch value (runs above average against a specific pitch) against the pitch ranked second to last in the league, once again behind the Padres. Furthermore, the Giants’ offense also struggled more than any other NL team against the cutter this year, ranking last in the league with a minus-20.5 pitch value.

Kansas City’s pitchers, both starters and relievers, enjoyed success throwing cutters (16.5 pitch value) and changeups (0.1) this season, so expect them to try to exploit the Giants’ weaknesses against those offerings.

Notable Pitch Values for Changeups, per FanGraphs:

LHP Jason Vargas: 6.1 wCH

RHP Jeremy Guthrie: 5.0 wCH

RHP Kelvin Herrera: 2.2 wCH

LHP Tim Collins: 1.4 wCH

LHP Brandon Finnegan: 0.9 wCH

Notable Pitch Values for Cutters, per FanGraphs:

RHP Wade Davis: 9.0 wCT

RHP James Shields: 6.1 wCT

RHP Yordano Ventura: 1.4 wCT

Giants Left-Handed Pitchers vs. Royals Left-Handed Hitters

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The Royals' left-handed hitters have put up great numbers in October, highlighted by a .280 batting average, 12 extra-base hits (seven home runs) and 24 RBI through 118 at-bats.

However, San Francisco's southpaws have collectively pitched to a 1.35 ERA and 33-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 innings in the postseason. Specifically, Jeremy Affeldt (7 G, 0 ER) and Javier Lopez (6 G, 0 ER) once again are throwing up zeroes out of the bullpen, and manager Bruce Bochy will surely play matchups as often as possible in the late innings in an attempt to neutralize Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas.

But that might be easier said than done, as Kansas City’s left-handed hitters are batting a combined .250 with two bombs and 10 RBI in 44 at-bats against same-sided pitching this October.

Jake Peavy's Career Struggles vs. Royals

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After spending nearly five years pitching for the White Sox in the AL Central, Jake Peavy is, for better or worse, quite familiar with Kansas City’s hitters. In 14 career starts against the Royals, the 32-year-old right-hander has pitched to a 4.97 ERA and allowed 10 home runs in 83.1 innings.

As for specific hitters (via ESPN):

• Billy Butler: .424, 3 HR, 2B, 8 RBI, 3 BB, 7 K

• Alcides Escobar: .409, 2 HR, 3B, 8 RBI, 2 K

• Alex Gordon: .357, HR, 2 2B, 5 RBI, BB, 8 K

On top of that, Peavy never has pitched well at Kauffman Stadium, with a 1-5 record, 6.42 ERA, eight home runs allowed and .898 opponents’ OPS in 40.2 career innings (seven starts).

Off to the Races

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The Royals led the major leagues during the regular season with 153 stolen bases, and, as a team, they were successful 81 percent of the time. Heading into the World Series, the team is 13-of-16 in stolen-base attempts in eight postseason games.

Now, it’ll be San Francisco’s turn to attempt to derail the Royals’ running game. Here’s a look at how baserunners have fared against the Giants’ World Series rotation over the past two seasons (via Baseball Reference):

• Madison Bumgarner: 15 of 32 (47 percent success rate)

• Jake Peavy: 17 of 29 (59 percent)

• Tim Hudson: 22 of 26 (85 percent)

• Ryan Vogelsong: 17 of 27 (63 percent)

Bumgarner’s feel for controlling the running game is easily the best on the staff, but the Royals are likely to challenge him on the basepaths in Games 1 and 5 (if necessary), as runs tend to be few and far between with the ace left-hander on the mound. After that, expect Kansas City’s usual cast of base-stealing threats to be off to the races when right-handers Peavy, Hudson and Vogelsong take the mound.

Head to Head: Giants vs. Royals

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The Royals swept the Giants in their only regular-season series, winning three games at Kauffman Stadium from Aug. 8 to 10. Here’s a look back at those games:

Aug. 8: Giants 2, Royals 4 [Box Score]

The Turning Point: Billy Butler and Alex Gordon deliver back-to-back RBI singles with two outs in the bottom of the sixth, giving the Royals a 4-2 lead.

Notable Offensive Performances:

Billy Butler: 2-for-3, HR, 3 RBI

Omar Infante: 2-for-4, 2 R

Joaquin Arias: 2-for-3, 2 2B, RBI

Matt Duffy: 2-for-4, RBI

Notable Pitching Performances:

Madison Bumgarner: 8 IP, 7 H, 4 R (3 ER), 5 K – 123 pitches, 85 strikes

Jason Vargas: 5 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 5 K – 101 pitches, 69 strikes

Greg Holland: SV, IP, 2 K – 11 pitches, eight strikes

Aug. 9: Giants 0, Royals 5 [Box Score]

The Turning Point: The Royals knock starter Tim Hudson out of the game and score four runs on six hits in the bottom of the seventh inning, extending the lead to 5-0.

Notable Offensive Performances:

Alex Gordon: 2-for-4, HR, RBI

Mike Moustakas: 1-for-3, R, 2B, RBI

Alcides Escobar: 1-for-3, R, RBI

Notable Pitching Performances:

James Shields: CG, SHO, 9 IP, 4 H, BB, 5 K – 109 pitches, 72 strikes

Tim Hudson: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, K – 84 pitches, 54 strikes

Aug. 10: Giants 4, Royals 7 [Box Score]

The Turning Point: The Royals jump out to a 4-0 lead in the first inning thanks to an RBI double by Billy Butler and two-run home run by Alex Gordon.

Notable Offensive Performances:

Nori Aoki: 2-for-2, 2 R, RBI, 3 SB, 2 BB

Alex Gordon: 2-for-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB

Jarrod Dyson: 3-for-3, 3 SB

Andrew Susac: 2-for-4, R, 2B, 3 RBI, K

Notable Pitching Performances:

Danny Duffy: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – 102 pitches, 61 strikes

Tim Lincecum: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – 73 pitches, 42 strikes

Glove Love

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

If you’ve watched the Royals this season, then you already know that the team’s defense, especially its outfield defense, is superb. But just how good, you ask? Well, the Royals outfield led the major leagues this season in defensive runs saved (46) and zone rating per 150 games (17.9), and the team also made more plays (11.3 percent) in remotely possible opportunities—defined by FanGraphs as balls in play that have a 1 to 10 percent chance of being successfully fielded—than any other team.

And then there’s this juicy tidbit, courtesy of Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus (subscription required): “A Gordon/Dyson/Cain outfield is more than 40 runs better than a Gordon/Cain/Aoki alignment over the course of 135 games. If Dyson comes in at the seventh inning and the game doesn't go extras, the Royals' run prevention improves by about a tenth of a run per game.”

Meanwhile, San Francisco’s .785 defensive efficiency ratio is the highest among all postseason teams (including those that have been eliminated), though the team ranked 11th in the NL in defensive runs saved (-5) and eighth in zone rating per 150 games (0.6) during the regular season.

7-8-9: Kelvin Herrera-Wade Davis-Greg Holland

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Where does one even begin when extolling the virtues of Kansas City’s bullpen?

For starters, the Royals’ bullpen ranked fifth in the AL in ERA (3.30 ERA) and eighth in opponents' batting average (.235) and WHIP (1.24) while allowing fewer home runs (32) than any other team.

They’ve been even more dominant in the postseason, with six wins, six saves, a 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .179 opponents' batting average and 36 strikeouts in 35 innings.

Specifically, the team’s late-inning trio of Kelvin Herrera (7 G, 1.08 ERA, 10 K), Wade Davis (8 G, 0.96 ERA, 10 K) and Greg Holland (8 G, 6 SV, 1.13 ERA) has been superb this October, as the right-handers have combined to allow three runs (1.05 ERA) on 14 hits with 30 strikeouts in 25.2 postseason innings.