Front-Runners, Wild Card and Expectations for the Chaotic ACC Coastal Division
The Atlantic Coast Conference's Coastal Division might be the chaotic disaster we've come to expect, but it's just getting started.
As has been said, "It's a dog-eat-dog world." Well, the seven football programs in the league's parity-filled faction has excelled at gobbling each other up.
In fact, Andy Bitter of The Roanoke Times points out the entire division—in just eight weeks—has already defied the transitive property.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
And there's no sign of those nonsensical results ending. Put simply, the Coastal is a mess.
Three teams sit at 2-1 in conference action, another at 2-2 and a trio at 1-2. It may not appear that a front-runner exists, but exploring what's left on each team's slate provides a relatively clear answer on the programs to watch.
Relatively, of course, since the division undeniably has the potential to implode.
| Duke | 2-1 | VT, UNC, WF | PITT, SYR |
| Virginia | 2-1 | UNC, MIA | GT, FSU, VT |
| Pittsburgh | 2-1 | GT, DUKE, SYR | UNC, MIA |
| Georgia Tech | 2-2 | UVA, CLEM | PITT, NCST |
| Miami | 1-2 | UNC, FSU, PITT | VT, UVA |
| Virginia Tech | 1-2 | MIA, BC, UVA | DUKE, WF |
| North Carolina | 1-2 | PITT, NCST | UVA, MIA, DUKE |
Front-Runners
Duke dropped its conference opener to Miami, but the Blue Devils are still in great position to repeat as Coastal champions.
Led by outstanding safety Jeremy Cash, Duke is preparing to encounter the most favorable remaining schedule, highlighted by comfortable matchups against the bottom two from the Atlantic Division: Syracuse and Wake Forest.
Laura Keeley of the Raleigh News & Observer said though Duke hasn't necessarily separated itself as the team to beat, the Blue Devils possess a couple of advantages.
"There is a remarkable amount of parity in the division—a seven-way tie at 4-4 is a possibility—so it's hard to predict who is going to win any Coastal Division game. That said, Duke does have an edge in coaching—David Cutcliffe and his staff know what they're doing, and the Blue Devils won't beat themselves. Duke [leads the] ACC in turnover differential (plus-8), fewest turnovers committed (five) and fewest sacks allowed (four).
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Since the Blue Devils won't beat themselves, another opponent has to earn it. So, enter Pittsburgh.
Under the direction of third-year coach Paul Chryst, the Panthers are poised to dethrone Duke, especially if they beat Georgia Tech on Oct. 25.
Pitt needs more consistent play from quarterback Chad Voytik, but the duo of running back James Conner and wideout Tyler Boyd is one of the most daunting combinations in the ACC.
Voytik and Conner recently shredded Virginia Tech on the ground, while Boyd hauled in six passes for 86 yards, including a 53-yard score. When the 'Canes defeated Duke, they relied on a similarly balanced attack, so the blueprint is there.
The matchup between Duke and Pitt on Nov. 1 at Heinz Field will be the deciding factor in which program holds the edge in the Coastal.
Wild Card
What is North Carolina? Frustrating, that's what.
The Tar Heels surrendered nearly 800 yards to East Carolina, so staging a last-minute comeback to upset Georgia Tech was the natural result for the Heels.
Larry Fedora's squad is like the neighborhood kid who overstays his welcome. He tags along no matter the activity, even if outclassed. Then, once you think he's disappeared, bam!, the little stinker is standing right in the foreground wondering what's up next.
"The parallel between 2013 #UNC and how 2014 UNC is shaping up is pretty uncanny.
— ESPN ACC (@ESPN_ACC) October 19, 2014"
For the second straight year, North Carolina found itself mired in a four-game losing streak before winning its seventh outing of the season.
Was the victory over Georgia Tech the beginning of another second-half resurgence? There is no definitive answer, it's merely conjecture.
Even if the Tar Heels don't rise up the standings, they can still wreak some serious havoc against Virginia, Miami, Pitt and Duke.
Credit Where It's Due, But Pretender, Too
Heading into the season, Virginia was supposed to be the worst team in the Coastal. Despite solid recruiting efforts, head coach Mike London was probably going to start feeling his seat warm.
But the Cavaliers didn't listen to the noise.
They put a scare into then-No. 7 UCLA, shocked 21st-ranked Louisville, fought a Top-25 BYU squad and knocked off Pitt. A win over Duke would propel Virginia to a 3-0 conference record and challenger status, but it ultimately came up a touchdown short.
Following the loss, per Andrew Ramspacher of The Daily Progress, quarterback Matt Johns said, "We're still in the race. It really is still wide open. That gives us a great opportunity next week to come back and correct our mistakes and hopefully come out with a win."
The sophomore is technically correct, but the Cavaliers face the toughest road of any Coastal program—a path they likely must navigate at 4-1 to stay in contention.
David Teel of the Daily Press said Virginia's limited offense and thin defense will doom the Cavaliers.
"Presuming Jameis Winston's continued presence," Teel said, "it's difficult to imagine Virginia winning at FSU. So to go 4-1 down the stretch, the Cavaliers would have to win four consecutive coin-flip games, including road tests at nemeses Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech."
Virginia surprised the ACC, and the Cavaliers deserve to be recognized for their superb efforts through seven games. But 2014 just isn't their year.
Work to Do and Help Needed
Georgia Tech ripped off five straight wins and started to draw national attention, but it was only a matter of time before its record was blemished. Duke, of course, happily obliged in derailing a confident Yellow Jackets squad—one week after Tech swarmed Miami.
Though a letdown against North Carolina was something Paul Johnson's team needed to avoid, Georgia Tech is still very much alive. Ken Sugiura of the Atlanta Journal Constitution said a 7-5 finish is realistic and can see the Jackets plucking an eighth.
"As poorly as the defense played against North Carolina, it's still the same team that beat Virginia Tech and Miami. Tech's defense isn't great, but I tend to think it's better than what it showed. And, as long as the offense plays efficiently, that should give Tech a chance in their final four ACC games.
Pittsburgh has yet to face an offense the caliber of Tech's and the Jackets have played their best defense against pro-style offenses. Virginia is better than expected, but hardly unbeatable, particularly at Bobby Dodd Stadium. You'd have to think the Jackets would have a chance at N.C. State. Clemson, obviously, will be a bear.
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As it stands, Georgia Tech is the two-loss team with the best chance to win the Coastal.
Miami, on the other hand, is clinging to a minimal title chance. Plus, although the Hurricanes surely don't want it any other way, they must host longtime rival Florida State.
A third loss would nearly eliminate "The U," but an unlikely hypothetical favors Miami. Should a three-way tiebreaker be relegated to intra-division record, the 'Canes are fortunate two conference losses (likely) came from the Atlantic, because its Coastal winning percentage would be higher.
If—and that's an incredible if—Miami can manage four victories, it would hold a head-to-head advantage over at least four division foes and probably five.
Ultimately, Duke Johnson and Co. aren't finished, but the 'Canes are nearly eliminated and hoping for a multi-team gridlock.
Virginia Tech can't catch a break, fighting through a host of bumps and bruises to its injury-riddled roster. The Hokies have played without Marshawn Williams, Luther Maddy, Shai McKenzie, Trey Edmunds and Brandon Facyson while Josh Stanford took a temporary leave of absence.
Falling short to Georgia Tech and Pitt stung, but losing to either Miami or Duke is basically a death sentence for Virginia Tech. Three shortcomings in the Coastal won't sit nicely in a tiebreaker, so the Hokies might be the first team effectively eliminated in the near future.
Though Virginia Tech's conference hopes are practically dashed, toppling in-state rival Virginia would be a middling Miss Congeniality-esque prize.
Expectations
Madness. Expect madness. And heartbreak. Then false hope, which only leads to heartbreak once again.
Virginia Tech is the first team to exit the picture, followed by UNC shortly thereafter. With respective losses to Florida State, Virginia's fate is sealed despite an encouraging campaign while Miami's final shreds of hope are almost completely dashed.
Georgia Tech hangs around through mid-November, but a loss to Clemson keeps the Jackets from heading to Charlotte. The winner of Duke vs. Pitt eventually becomes the 2014 champion only to be handled by the Seminoles in the ACC Championship Game.
Nevertheless, don't be surprised at any result, because the Coastal Division is a chaotic, dog-eat-dog world, and anything is possible.
Note: All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Follow Bleacher Report college football writer David Kenyon on Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR.
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