Handicapping the 2014 World Series Most Valuable Player Odds
The 2014 World Series is finally set to get underway, with Game 1 scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City.
The Kansas City Royals enter the series seeking their first World Series title since 1985, while the San Francisco Giants are looking for their third title in the past five years.
Predicting who will shine in the World Series, or the playoffs in general for that matter, is always tricky, and oftentimes it's the guys you least expect that come up with the key hit (see: Ishikawa, Travis).
That said, what follows is an effort to handicap the odds for World Series MVP honors.
Players' performances to this point in the postseason and the roles they fill on their respective teams were the two biggest factors when determining the award favorites.
The Field
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The following slides highlight the eight leading candidates for World Series MVP heading into the series, but that leaves 42 players who need to be factored into the odds.
While the smart money is obviously on each team's respective superstars and guys riding a hot streak into the Fall Classic, things don't always play out as expected on the diamond.
Pat Borders (1992), Scott Brosius (1998) and David Eckstein (2006) jump to mind as three recent examples of guys who were far from superstars when they walked away with World Series MVP honors.
As far as a couple dark horses from each team to keep an eye on, how about Mike Moustakas and Yordano Ventura for the Royals and Hunter Pence and Jake Peavy for the Giants?
Those four are not included among the odds leaders, but they headline the group of 42 simply dubbed "the field" and will have every chance to make their mark as well.
Odds: 5-2
SP James Shields, Kansas City Royals
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James Shields has not lived up to his "Big Game James" nickname so far this postseason, but he will have a prime opportunity to turn things around when he takes the ball in Game 1 for the Royals opposite NLCS MVP Madison Bumgarner.
Shields has allowed 21 hits and 10 earned runs in 16 innings of work over his three postseason starts thus far, failing to go six innings in two of those three outings.
Pegging the right-hander as one of the odds leaders is more about opportunity than anything else.
If he can toss a gem in Game 1 and outduel Bumgarner, he has to immediately be viewed as the early favorite for the award. He will also likely see at least two starts, and possibly three if the series goes seven games, so the chances will be there for him to make an impression.
Odds: 14-1
3B Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants
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Pablo Sandoval already has a World Series MVP award on his mantle, claiming the honor in 2012 when he went 8-for-16 with a double and three home runs in the Giants' four-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers.
He's having another strong postseason so far this year, going 14-for-43 with four doubles and six runs scored, but he only has one RBI in 10 games.
That decent performance so far this October, coupled with his track record of past playoff success, lands him among the leading candidates as the series kicks off.
However, he will need to start coming through in the clutch if he wants another trophy, as he is just 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and 2-for-10 in late/close situations.
Odds: 14-1
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RP Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
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All due respect to Lorenzo Cain, who was terrific, but the real MVP of the ALCS was the Royals' vaunted late-inning trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland.
The combined line of those three in the series: 12 G, 2-0, 4 SV, 14.2 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 15 K.
While Herrera and Davis have been just as important to the team's success, if anyone is going to receive award recognition, it'll be the closer Holland.
The last closer to win World Series MVP was Mariano Rivera back in 1999, but just last year Red Sox stopper Koji Uehara won ALCS MVP honors, so it's not out of the realm of possibility to think Holland has a chance if there is no standout position player.
Odds: 12-1
RP Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
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A setup man for most of his career, Santiago Casilla took over the closer's role from a struggling Sergio Romo at the beginning of July and has been lights out ever since.
He converted 17 of 18 save chances with a 2.42 ERA and 0.923 WHIP after moving to the ninth inning, and he did not allow a hit in six innings of work over his final five regular-season appearances.
That dominance has continued into the postseason, as he has nailed down all four of his save chances and allowed just two hits over 6.2 scoreless innings.
Just like Holland on the Royals' side of things, if the Giants come out on top and there is no clear offensive standout, Casilla could wind up being the choice for MVP honors.
Odds: 12-1
CF Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals
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It's fair to say Lorenzo Cain has been the biggest breakout story of the 2014 postseason.
The 28-year-old turned in one defensive gem after another in the ALDS, then caught fire at 8-for-15 with two doubles in the ALCS to win MVP honors.
Momentum is certainly on his side, so he has to be included among the favorites, but history is stacked against him in his bid to win both LCS and World Series MVP.
Only six times in MLB history has a player pulled that off, and all six of them came on the National League side of things, with David Freese the most recent example for the Cardinals in 2011.
Odds: 10-1
1B Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals
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The 2014 postseason has been a coming-out party of sorts for Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer, as he has been the most consistent hitter in the team's lineup this postseason.
Manager Ned Yost praised the recent play of his cleanup hitter when talking to Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star:
"He got hot at the right time. Hos can go through streaks where he tears the cover off the ball. And he'll go through streaks where it's a little more difficult for him.
But right now his swing is very short, very quick. He can hit the ball with power to all fields and he's seeing the ball really, really well.
"
After a relatively disappointing regular season in which he hit .270/.318/.398 with just nine home runs in 503 at-bats, the 24-year-old is 13-for-29 with four extra-base hits and eight RBI in eight games so far this October.
Hosmer will continue to be penciled into the No. 4 spot in the lineup, and with a trio of speedsters batting in front of him, he should see some big RBI chances.
He has gone 4-for-9 in late/close situations, including the go-ahead home run in Game 2 of the American League Division Series, and a few more clutch hits could put him among the front-runners for the award.
Odds: 9-1
C Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
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As far as overall skill set and track record go, it's fair to call Buster Posey the best player on either side for the upcoming World Series matchup.
"When in doubt: Pick the best player on either team," wrote Will Leitch of Sports on Earth. "That's Posey."
The 27-year-old is trying for his third World Series title in his five-year career, and with an NL Rookie of the Year award, NL MVP award and a batting title to his credit, he already has quite an impressive career resume.
He is still searching for his first extra-base hit of October, but he has still managed a productive all-around postseason, going 13-for-43 with five RBI and four runs scored. He's been especially good in the clutch, going 4-for-9 with runners in scoring position and 3-for-9 in late/close situations.
Posey will also have the unenviable task of trying to slow down the Royals running game. He has one of the strongest throwing arms in the league and nailed 30 percent of would-be base stealers during the regular season.
Odds: 9-1
SP Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
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Madison Bumgarner has been the star of the 2014 postseason to this point, making him an easy choice as the favorite to take home World Series MVP honors.
A quick look at his postseason game log through four starts this October:
| NL Wild Card (W) | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| NLDS Game 3 (L) | 7.0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| NLCS Game 1 (W) | 7.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| NLCS Game 5 (ND) | 8.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
The most notable takeaway there is his continued success on the road. The first and third starts came away from AT&T Park, and he has now run his postseason road scoreless streak to a record 26.2 innings.
He will be on the mound in Game 1 when the series kicks off at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, and while there is no clear source of his road dominance, it's hard to bet against him throwing another gem at this point.
"You know, honestly, I feel the best I've felt all year for the last probably two months," Bumgarner told reporters in his Game 1 presser (via Tim Kawakami of the Mercury News). "I feel really good."
The big left-hander has proved he belongs in the conversation of the game's best starters this postseason, and he has already added NLCS MVP to his resume. Now he'll be looking to close things out with a third World Series ring and a World Series MVP to boot.
Odds: 6-1
Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference and accurate through Monday, Oct. 20.
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