5 Bold Predictions for San Diego Chargers' Week 8 Matchup

There is no looking back for the San Diego Chargers.

In their first loss since Week 1, the Chargers (5-2) fell to the Kansas City Chiefs in an ugly contest filled with injuries, missed opportunities and backbreaking penalties.

The Chargers can’t dwell on this defeat, however—they play Peyton Manning, the NFL’s all-time leader in passing touchdowns, and the Denver Broncos (5-1) on Thursday. With cornerbacks Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers’ status up in the air, Manning should easily carve up San Diego’s paper-thin secondary.

That is, unless things don’t go as expected, which, in the NFL, is a fairly common scenario.

That’s what these five bold predictions are here to bring—reasoning for outcomes we might not be expecting.

How about these, for starters: Dwight Freeney will end his sack drought. Manning will have his best game of the season in one important category. San Diego will be more competitive than you think.

Find out why these predictions and more will happen in a battle for AFC West supremacy.

The Chargers Will Have the Edge in Time of Possession

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Kansas City beat San Diego at its own game Sunday, possessing the ball for 39 minutes compared to the Chargers’ 21. The San Diego offense couldn’t sustain long drives, a staple for their success in Weeks 2-6.

Rivers missed on a number of makeable deep throws during the game, mainly due to pressure up the middle and not just the pressure he is used to dodging on the edge.

The Chiefs’ offense wasn’t even playing at its best, dropping several passes and committing costly penalties. Imagine what Manning’s record-breaking offense will do against this gassed defense.

San Diego’s defense is a concern, but its offense simply doesn’t play two bad games in a row. Just remember what Rivers did to the Seahawks after a lackluster Week 1.

Rivers should get back to his MVP form by picking on a linebacking group vulnerable to the pass, especially with Danny Trevathan out. Couple that with a Broncos interior line that has been quiet against quarterbacks, and the Chargers have a recipe for keeping the ball in their hands.

Dwight Freeney Will Sack Manning Twice

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The Chargers had three sacks Sunday but should’ve had more. Outside linebacker Dwight Freeney is a shining example—he has tallied all kinds of hits and hurries this season but hasn’t recorded a sack since Week 3 at Buffalo.

Against his former teammate not known for his scrambling prowess, Freeney will finally convert some of his pressures into tangible results.

There are three key reasons why—Freeney, not known for his run defense, is at his best when he doesn’t have to worry about tackling running backs. This is good for the Broncos' game against a team that won’t lean on the run with Ronnie Hillman currently the lead back.

The second is Freeney’s matchup against left tackle Ryan Clady. Clady has historically been an excellent blindside protector, but that isn’t the case this season. He has been inconsistent in pass protection, and Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him at a minus-1.3 in that area in Weeks 1-7, second-worst on the Broncos.

The third is Manning’s lack of mobility. Manning is a master at using subtle maneuvers to stay in the pocket, but when a defender like Freeney blows by the offensive tackle, he usually gives up on the play. This is different from what Freeney has had to face so far—mobile passers like Blake Bortles, Russell Wilson and Alex Smith who can evade sack artists.

Freeney should have a field day, getting at least two sacks.

Peyton Manning Will Set a Season High in Completion Percentage

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Manning was ruthlessly efficient vs. the 49ers in Week 7, completing 84.6 percent of his passes. While most quarterbacks would happily take that as a season high, there is reason to believe Manning can complete an even higher percentage vs. the Chargers.

It all comes down to—surprise, surprise—the Chargers’ weakness at cornerback. With players who can generate yards after the catch like Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders, the Broncos will likely focus heavily on the short stuff to take advantage of poor tacklers like Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright.

Denver should avoid throwing deep, anyway—Eric Weddle plays excellent pass coverage in center field, and the longer Manning waits for a route to open up deep, the higher the probability that Freeney or Corey Liuget will sack him.

The Chargers’ replacement corners are big red targets for the Denver passing attack. Manning isn’t going to make it harder than it is. He’ll simply toss it to Thomas and let him break tackles and run by the Flowers-and-Verrett-less secondary. That sounds like 90 percent completion is on its way.

Malcom Floyd Will Lead Chargers in Receiving

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Floyd has been a valuable role player for San Diego this season. That is more than anyone could have hoped for after his scary neck injury last year, and he has the perfect opportunity to show off his comeback to a national audience Thursday.

Players like Antonio Gates and Keenan Allen might catch the short stuff from Rivers, but don’t be surprised if Floyd gains over 100 yards receiving from a couple of timely deep throws. The Rivers-to-Floyd connection did little vs. the Chiefs, as Floyd could only catch three passes on seven targets. That is unusual for the prolific duo, so expect them to fix the problem and get back on track.

The Broncos will be intent on blanking Gates in the red zone and Allen, who nearly beat Denver by himself in last season’s playoffs, the rest of the way. If Floyd can snatch the ball deep against single coverage, Rivers and co. should be able to keep pace with the Broncos’ explosive offense.

The Chargers Will Lose—by a Field Goal

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The Chargers haven’t been an easy win for the Broncos in the Mike McCoy era. In the three games McCoy has faced his former team, the Broncos have outscored the Chargers by a mere eight points. Rivers and the offense controlling the ball played a big factor in each contest, while Liuget and the defense harassed Manning.

Yes, the Broncos just ran the 49ers out of Denver. But before that game, Denver played in tight contests with teams we expected them to blow out of the water. They won 31-17 vs. a Jets team the Chargers beat 31-0 and lost to the now-reeling Seahawks.

Denver’s ceiling is still enormously high, but they haven’t been reaching it every game. There is reason to believe they aren’t going to reach it against the Chargers, who have always been a tough out for Manning. Also keep in mind Wright and Marshall were starting for San Diego last year, and the team didn’t fall apart.

Despite the positive reasoning, San Diego simply doesn’t have the horses to steal a win at Denver. They have a strong blueprint to defeat Manning, especially with an upgraded defense and Branden Oliver impressing. However, the injuries are just too much to overcome, especially on a short week. The real battle with Denver will come later. It might be best just to get this game over with.