How the Atlanta Braves Should Handle Each of Their Impending Free Agents

One of the many questions that the Atlanta Braves will face this offseason will be what to do with several impending free agents. While the need to decide upon a permanent general manager is likely their first order of business, the team cannot wait too long to make important decisions on retaining several key free agents.

Those decisions will be based on the direction the team takes this offseason—whether to tweak the roster or rebuild.

If the decision is to rebuild, then many of these free agents will not be in the conversation.

If the decision is to try to compete next year with only a few minor changes to the roster, then retaining some of these free agents could be a real possibility. We’ll keep those two possible directions in mind when answering how the Braves should handle each of their impending free agents.

Ervin Santana

By far the biggest free-agent decision the Braves will need to make involves starting pitcher Ervin Santana. Atlanta gave up their first-round pick in this year's draft in order to sign Santana. The idea was that he would hit the free-agent market again this offseason and the Braves would recoup that first-round pick by extending him a qualifying offer.

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By my estimation, Santana did enough this year to warrant the Braves extending him a qualifying offer. His fWAR was virtually the same from last year (2.9) to this year (2.8). While his ERA went from 3.24 to 3.95, his FIP went the other direction, from 3.93 to 3.39, indicating that much of his ERA inflation was due to batted ball luck.

His 8.22 K/9 this year was much higher than the 6.87 K/9 rate he posted last year, and was the second-highest K/9 of his career. Some of that increase could be attributed to pitching in the National League for the first time, where he got to strike out a lot more pitchers.

The Braves should definitely extend Santana a qualifying offer, but they may also want to consider re-signing him. If they choose to go the route of tweaking the roster, then they will need to retain all the starting pitching they can. If they cannot re-sign Santana, then they would need to replace him with another free-agent starting pitcher.

On the other hand, if they choose to rebuild, they should still extend Santana a qualifying offer and reap the benefit of a draft pick. Santana is unlikely to accept a qualifying offer and would instead seek out a multiyear deal on the open market.

Aaron Harang

Aaron Harang was perhaps the most pleasant surprise of the 2014 season for the Braves. Signed at the end of spring training after the Cleveland Indians released him, Harang was among the top 50 starting pitchers in MLB for fWAR. He actually had a lower ERA (3.57) than Santana (3.95).

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Those numbers may beg for a return to Atlanta, but Harang will be entering his age-37 season next year. So while it would be nice to believe that he can repeat his solid season, that gets less likely as he gets older.

He is not one of those pitchers a team signs in the early part of the offseason. He’s more a pitcher that a team signs just before spring training when their other offseason plans haven’t panned out.

The Braves should treat Harang as a starter of last resort. Yes, he would probably be a good innings-eater, but there’s no reason to break the bank on him until they see how the offseason plays out.

Whether the team tweaks or rebuilds this offseason, the addition of Harang should only be addressed late in the offseason. By that time he will likely have been scooped up by a team even more desperate for starting pitching.

Gavin Floyd

Gavin Floyd is also a free agent and will spend at least some time next year recovering from surgery to repair a fractured elbow. While he pitched great for the Braves when he was healthy, the team does not need to once again make the mistake of relying on so many pitchers returning from injury.

Of course, if the team does decide to rebuild, then they likely have the ability to sign a guy like Floyd and let him work his way back, with a plan to trade him away midyear.

The Bench

As for bench players Gerald Laird and Ryan Doumit, both were pretty bad offensively in 2014.

Laird was decent as a backup catcher, but nothing special. He certainly didn’t bring that added element of clubhouse favorite that former backup catcher David Ross brought to the team. There’s no reason to bring Laird back to the team unless they believe he can be a good influence on their young catchers in a rebuilding environment.

I thought the trade for Doumit was a good one at the time. He was a switch-hitter who could also play some catcher and outfield and added a little pop off the bench. Whatever the reason, Doumit never seemed to warm up to primarily being a pinch-hitter. It’s pretty much guaranteed that he won’t be back.

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Trade-deadline acquisition Emilio Bonifacio came to Atlanta and immediately caught the same disease that many of the other lackluster Atlanta hitters had. He hit just .212/.273/.280 in 41 games for the Braves. He did, however, play five different positions, including every outfield position, second base and shortstop.

While his hitting was not worth much, his career has shown that he’s generally better than he was last year. Add to that his good speed—he stole 12 bases—and Bonifacio is a guy I would like to see hang around in Atlanta for a little while. Good speed in a super-utility player who will only be 30 years old next year should be worth keeping around whether the team is tweaking or rebuilding.

Stats for this article courtesy of FanGraphs.com.