10 X-Factors That Will Decide Who Wins the 2014 World Series
Baseball fans, the wait is almost over.
After both the American League Championship Series and the National League Championship Series wrapped up quickly, we've endured a lengthy layoff before the start of the World Series. But things will finally get underway Tuesday night in Kansas City.
Two teams that have defied the odds and advanced all the way from the Wild Card Game will now take center stage.
The Kansas City Royals are looking for their first World Series title since 1985, which was, coincidentally, the last time they reached the postseason.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants continue their inexplicable dominance of even-numbered years as they look to claim their third title in the past five seasons.
So before things kick off with the Game 1 matchup of Madison Bumgarner and James Shields, here is a look at 10 X-factors that could ultimately determine who wins the 2014 World Series.
Giants: A Lights-out Madison Bumgarner Atop the Rotation
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While Clayton Kershaw was universally recognized as the best pitcher in baseball during the regular season, it is Giants ace Madison Bumgarner who has shined this October, and at the moment, he's the best in the business.
The 25-year-old wrapped up the regular season at 18-10 with a 2.98 ERA and a career-high 219 strikeouts in 217.1 innings of work, and with Matt Cain hurt, he was the unquestioned leader of the Giants staff.
He kicked off the team's postseason run with a bang, throwing a four-hit shutout against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Wild Card Game, and he has not slowed down since on his way to NLCS MVP honors.
| NL Wild Card (W) | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| NLDS Game 3 (L) | 7.0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| NLCS Game 1 (W) | 7.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| NLCS Game 5 (ND) | 8.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
The most notable takeaway from those starts is his continued success on the road, as his first and third start came away from AT&T Park, and he has now run his postseason road scoreless streak to a record 26.2 innings.
With the American League holding home-field advantage, he will take the ball on the road in Game 1.
This postseason has featured late-inning heroics and overpowering relief pitching, and while other marquee starting pitchers have come up short, Bumgarner has dominated and proved he belongs in the conversation with the game's best.
Giants: Michael Morse in the Pinch Hitter/Designated Hitter Role
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Michael Morse started off his first season with the Giants on fire, hitting .925 OPS with 16 doubles and 11 home runs through the first two months. His production dropped off significantly from there, though, and he wound up playing just one game in September while dealing with an oblique strain.
That injury kept him off the National League Division Series roster, but he was added to the mix for the NLCS to serve as the team's top pinch hitter.
After going 1-for-3 with a single in his first three pinch-hit chances, he came through with a huge game-tying home run off of St. Louis Cardinals reliever Pat Neshek in the eighth inning of Game 5.
"A dream come true," Morse said of the blast, via the San Francisco Chronicle. "The biggest hit of my career."
Morse will likely continue to be limited to pinch-hit duties for the Giants' home games, but he will have a chance to play a much larger role as the designated hitter for the games in Kansas City.
For a Giants team that has managed just five home runs in 10 postseason games so far, with two of those coming in the final two innings of its NLCS-clinching win, adding another power bat to the mix could be a game-changer.
Giants: Yusmeiro Petit in Long Relief
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Having a good long relief option is often overlooked during the regular season, especially if a team's rotation stays relatively healthy and that swingman winds up being a seldom-used middle reliever.
The postseason generally means a shorter leash for starting pitchers, though, and having an arm out of the bullpen capable of stepping in and throwing multiple innings becomes significantly more important.
Yusmeiro Petit has been that guy for the Giants, and he has been spectacular.
"He knows how to warm up and how to stay ready, it just seems to fit his temperament,” pitching coach Dave Righetti told Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle. “I’m not saying he doesn’t have eyes on being a full-time starter again, but he understands what we’re asking of him, and he’s done a hell of a job.
The big right-hander went 5-5 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 39 games (12 starts) during the regular season, replacing Tim Lincecum in the rotation when he was demoted to the bullpen.
Petit made his postseason debut in Game 2 of the NLDS when he entered a tie game in the 12th inning, and he wound up throwing six scoreless innings of one-hit baseball to earn the win.
He was the winning pitcher again in Game 4 of the NLCS, taking over for Ryan Vogelsong in the fourth inning with the Giants down 4-3. He again allowed just one hit, this time over three innings of work, as the Giants took a 3-1 series lead.
A team always wants to get as many innings as possible out of its starter, but the Giants at least have some peace of mind knowing Petit is waiting in the wings if the starter gets an early hook.
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Giants: The Experience of Bruce Bochy
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On paper at least, the Giants and Royals match up very well across the board. However, one spot where the Giants look to have a clear edge is in the manager's seat, as Bruce Bochy is no stranger to postseason success.
In his eighth season at the helm, and 20th season as a big league skipper, Bochy is in the World Series for the fourth time in his managerial career.
En route to 1,618 regular-season wins, good for 18th on the all-time list, Bochy led the San Diego Padres to the NL pennant in 1998 and the Giants to World Series titles in 2010 and 2012.
On the other side of the diamond, Royals manager Ned Yost is in the postseason for the first time in his managerial career.
He has seen his fair share of criticism during his five seasons with the Royals, and his decision to bring in Yordano Ventura on one day of rest to relieve James Shields in the Wild Card Game nearly ended Kansas City's playoff run before it even started.
In the minds of many, the Royals have made it to the World Series in spite of Yost, not because of him. That criticism seems to just roll off of him, though, and there is no question he has the support of the front office.
"Ned's a very thick-skinned person," Royals general manager Dayton Moore said, via John Perrotto of USA Today. "He's an incredible leader and very passionate. He's the most competitive person I know. He's very positive. He's always optimistic. He loves the completion, and he loves winning, and the way he approaches the game has allowed our players to go out and do what they do."
Royals: James Shields in the Role of Staff Ace
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When the Royals pulled the trigger on the trade for James Shields prior to last season, it was with an eye on him leading their rotation in October.
The 32-year-old has continued to be one of the game's most reliable arms during his time in Kansas City, going 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA during the regular season and reaching the 200-inning mark for the eighth straight year.
However, he has yet to live up to his "Big Game James" moniker so far this October, and that will need to change when he squares off against a red-hot Bumgarner.
| AL Wild Card (ND) | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| ALDS Game 3 (W) | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| ALCS Game 1 (ND) | 5.0 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
After averaging roughly 6.2 innings per start during the regular season and pitching seven-plus innings in 18 of his 34 starts, Shields has made an early exit twice already this postseason.
For the Royals, how Shields performs in the World Series will ultimately determine whether it was worth dealing Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and others to acquire him.
For the free-agent-to-be Shields, it is his last chance to prove he deserves contracts in the same neighborhood as what fellow free agents Jon Lester and Max Scherzer will ultimately receive this coming winter.
Royals: The Running Game
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The Royals made up for their lack of power during the regular season, when they hit an MLB-low 95 long balls, by using their terrific team speed to swipe an MLB-best 153 bases.
That thievery has continued this postseason, as they have stolen 13 bases in eight games, again helping them to manufacture runs.
Their regular-season stolen-base leaders were as follows:
| Jarrod Dyson | 36/43 | 1/3 |
| Alcides Escobar | 31/37 | 1/1 |
| Lorenzo Cain | 28/33 | 2/2 |
| Nori Aoki | 17/25 | 1/1 |
| Alex Gordon | 12/15 | 3/3 |
| Omar Infante | 9/12 | - |
| Terrance Gore | 5/5 | 3/3 |
Jarrod Dyson is generally the first man in as a pinch runner, often staying in the game to play center field, with Lorenzo Cain shifting over to right field.
Terrance Gore has yet to record a hit at the big league level, but he now has eight stolen bases and six runs scored in 19 games combined during the regular season and postseason.
Squaring off against this running game will be Buster Posey, who has one of the strongest throwing arms in baseball behind the plate but is roughly league average at throwing out runners. He has nailed 30 percent of would-be base stealers in each of the past three seasons, shooting down 25 of 84 attempts this year.
Royals: Eric Hosmer and His Offensive Emergence
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Lorenzo Cain took home ALCS MVP honors, and rightfully so after an 8-for-15 performance in the team's sweep of the Baltimore Orioles. However, the Royals' hottest hitter this postseason has been Eric Hosmer, and he will look to continue his offensive emergence with a big World Series performance.
Manager Ned Yost has certainly taken notice of his first baseman's recent streak in talking to Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star:
"He got hot at the right time. Hos can go through streaks where he tears the cover off the ball. And he’ll go through streaks where it’s a little more difficult for him. But right now his swing is very short, very quick. He can hit the ball with power to all fields and he’s seeing the ball really, really well.
"
All told, the 24-year-old is 13-for-29 (.448 BA) this postseason with two home runs and eight RBI, including the go-ahead two-run blast in Game 2 of the American League Division Series and the key run-scoring chopper on the infield in Game 4 of the ALCS.
He will remain penciled into the No. 4 spot in the lineup, and with a trio of speedsters ahead of him, he should continue to see plenty of RBI chances as he looks to improve on a 2-for-9 showing with runners in scoring position.
It has been a bumpy road for Hosmer since an impressive showing as a rookie back in 2011, but he is finally displaying the impact bat that made him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2008 draft.
Royals: Yordano Ventura as the No. 2 Starter
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The Royals have already announced their rotation plans for the World Series, and it will again be flame-throwing rookie Yordano Ventura who takes the ball in Game 2.
It was a rocky start to the postseason for the 23-year-old, who came on in relief in the Wild Card Game and promptly coughed up the lead by allowing a three-run home run to Brandon Moss.
He bounced back with a terrific outing in the ALDS, though, allowing five hits and one earned run in seven innings of work while squaring off against fellow rookie standout Matt Shoemaker.
His Game 2 start in the ALCS did not go nearly as smoothly, as he lasted just 5.2 innings and allowed five hits and four earned runs, but his teammates picked him up in that one and he wound up with a no-decision.
With a fastball that can touch 102 mph, a biting 12-6 curveball that can be devastating when he's controlling it and a developing changeup, the undersized right-hander has some of the best stuff around.
He wrapped up his rookie season at 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA in 183 innings of work, numbers that would generally put a first-year player in the Rookie of the Year conversation—but not this season, with Jose Abreu dominating the ballot.
The Royals have a pair of solid veterans to anchor the back of their rotation in Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie, but Ventura is the guy capable of pitching like a second ace and giving the rotation a huge shot in the arm.
The Long Ball
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For two teams that did not hit very many home runs during the regular season, the Royals and Giants have connected on some big ones this postseason, and it will be interesting to see what role the long ball plays in the World Series.
AT&T Park won't be a launching pad, we know that much for sure.
The Giants have held a distinct home field advantage in their previous two World Series runs, squaring off against power-reliant teams in the Rangers and Tigers. However, as Mike Axisa of CBSSports notes, they won't have that same advantage over a Royals team that is built for small ball.
"Playing in AT&T Park has been a distinct advantage for the Giants over the years because it is so pitcher friendly. They won't have that same advantage in the World Series this year. The Royals are basically an NL team in the AL and they're made to play in parks just like this. They're built perfectly for low-scoring games and a big ballpark like the one in San Francisco.
"
The Royals ended up dead last in the majors with just 95 home runs during the regular season. Alex Gordon (19), Salvador Perez (17) and Mike Moustakas (15) were the only three guys to reach double digits. However, they have already hit eight in eight games this postseason, and three of those have been extra-inning game-winners, with Moustakas, Gordon and Eric Hosmer each coming through with a clutch blow.
Moustakas has been hitting in the No. 9 spot in the lineup after a rough regular season, but he is tied with Matt Carpenter for the postseason lead with four home runs, as the team is finally getting some production from the hot corner.
Meanwhile, the Giants actually took a step forward this season in the power department, improving from 29th in the league in 2013, when they hit 107 home runs, to 17th in the league this year with 132. Buster Posey (22) and Hunter Pence (20) led the way, while Pablo Sandoval (16), Michael Morse (16), Brandon Belt (12) and Brandon Crawford (10) joined them in double figures.
Crawford came through with the big blow in the Wild Card Game with a grand slam, while Belt hit the game-winner in the 18th inning of Game 2 of the NLDS.
They then went without a home run until Game 5 of the NLCS, when they hit three. Second baseman Joe Panik matched his regular-season total when he hit his first of the playoffs, Morse tied things up in the eighth with a pinch-hit bomb and left fielder Travis Ishikawa walked off against Michael Wacha in the ninth.
So while power is by no means the focal point of either of these teams, both teams have managed to come up with the big home run when they needed it. Ultimately, it could be the team that finds a way to continue that long-ball magic that comes out on top.
The Battle of the Bullpens
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When people throw around the idea that pitching wins championships, they are generally talking about front-end starting pitching. This time around, however, it may wind up being a battle of the bullpens to determine who wins it all, as two of the best in the business will square off.
The Giants wrapped up the regular season fifth in the majors with a 3.01 bullpen ERA, and their relief corps has led the way this postseason, with five wins, five saves and a 1.78 ERA in 35.1 innings of work.
| Jeremy Affeldt | 7 | 1-0 | 6.1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Santiago Casilla | 7 | 0-0 | 6.2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Javier Lopez | 6 | 0-0 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jean Machi | 4 | 0-0 | 2.1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Yusmeiro Petit | 2 | 2-0 | 9.0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| Sergio Romo | 7 | 1-1 | 4.2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Hunter Strickland | 4 | 1-0 | 4.1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
We have already touched on Petit's impact as a long reliever, and the team also has two of the best lefty middle men in the business in Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez, as well as a closer who has been nearly unhittable over the past month in Santiago Casilla.
The question mark is the right-handed setup relief, where Jean Machi and Sergio Romo have not been nearly as dominant and hard-throwing rookie Hunter Strickland has been susceptible to the long ball.
Then we have the Royals, who were 10th in the league with a 3.30 bullpen ERA. Their relievers were flat-out dominant as well, with six wins, six saves and a 1.80 ERA in 35.0 innings of work.
| Tim Collins | 1 | 0-0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Wade Davis | 8 | 2-0 | 9.1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| Danny Duffy | 1 | 1-0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Finnegan | 5 | 1-0 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Jason Frasor | 4 | 2-0 | 3.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kelvin Herrera | 7 | 0-0 | 8.1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| Greg Holland | 8 | 0-0 | 8.0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
The 7-8-9 trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland might be the best in baseball history, and they have only strengthened their case so far this postseason.
Jason Frasor has been terrific since coming over from the Rangers, and this year's first-round pick, Brandon Finnegan, has shown flashes of brilliance as well.
The Royals have turned in only one start over six innings this postseason, and that is really all they need their starting pitchers to do with the dominant pen they have in place.
Unless otherwise noted, all standard and advanced stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, and accurate through Sunday, Oct. 19.
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