Notre Dame vs. FSU: How the Seminoles' Win Reshapes Playoff Picture

While not necessarily looking its strongest, Florida State did the one thing it needed to on Saturday night to keep its playoff hopes alive: survive.

The No. 2 Seminoles nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory but remain unbeaten after a 31-27 win over No. 5 Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish looked to have taken the lead with 13 seconds left, but a pass interference flag all but killed their comeback attempt.

CBSSports.com's Matt Norlander wouldn't mind getting a rematch in the playoff:

Everett Golson and Jameis Winston stole the show. Golson was 31-of-52 for 313 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, while the reigning Heisman Trophy winner went 23-of-31 for 273 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

Saturday's game helped solidify exactly why Winston is one of the best players in the country. On a night when many of the Seminoles' flaws were exposed, Winston saved the day:

With the Fighting Irish out of the way, the Seminoles pretty much have a clear path to the playoff. They don't have another Top-25 school on the schedule the rest of the way, and neither Duke nor Georgia Tech strike much fear in the event FSU met the Blue Devils or Yellow Jackets in the ACC Championship.

As long as Florida State wins out, it will finish in the top four. The only question is whether it will end up with the No. 1 seed.

With Saturday's results so far and forecasting how the weeks ahead could unfold, the top four might shake out something like this:

Pos.	Team	Record
1	Ole Miss Rebels	7-0 (4-0 SEC)
2	Florida State Seminoles	7-0 (4-0 ACC)
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	6-1 (3-1 SEC)
4	Oregon Ducks	6-1 (3-1 Pac-12)

This game had the feel of a playoff eliminator.

The Fighting Irish nearly had the win in the final seconds, but a loss is still a loss. The selection committee might feel that Notre Dame had its shot and blew it, whether that's fair or not. The same would've been said of Florida State if Corey Robinson's touchdown near the end of the game counts.

Notre Dame's saving grace could be its schedule, which has Arizona State and USC still to come. ESPN.com's Heather Dinich thinks that could be enough:

The Fighting Irish has to hope that the Pac-12 doesn't cannibalize itself, which could very well happen with the way the conference has unfolded so far. It's hard to say how much value beating the Sun Devils and Trojans could have by season's end. Look how quickly UCLA and Stanford have tumbled in the standings.

Before the game, Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly remained defiant that a loss to the Seminoles wouldn't spell the end of his team's playoff push.

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

"We still have a rugged schedule in front of us," he said, per Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune. "So I don't look at this as a game that ends our quest for being in the playoffs."

Hine, on the other hand, was much more pessimistic after calling into question the Fighting Irish's less than daunting schedule in retrospect:

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But the first half of the schedule will bring down the overall rating, and after Florida State, the Irish play only two other teams (Arizona State and USC) currently ranked in the "human polls." Humans will determine who gets in the playoffs. Perception matters.

That's why a win over Florida State is paramount. Even if the Irish drop a game later in the season, a victory over the Seminoles would prove they can hang with the big boys. It's a perception the Irish have been fighting since Alabama trounced them in the BCS championship game two seasons ago.

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West Virginia's upset of Baylor opens the door, but the odds of Notre Dame getting back in the good graces of the selection committee are still looking somewhat slim. The team will need some help.

If you lock in Florida State and the SEC champion, the Fighting Irish would likely have to jump ahead of a one-loss Ohio State/Michigan State, one-loss Ole Miss/Mississippi State/Alabama/Auburn and a one-loss Oregon.

Losing the game as it did will certainly keep Notre Dame in the playoff discussion. But it may be on the outside looking in from here on out.