Bowl Predictions 2014: Latest Playoff Projections After Week 8
There has been little rhyme or reason to the 2014 college football season, making the task of crafting bowl predictions in the nascent College Football Playoff era an admittedly dicey proposition.
Every single week, a hot new contender takes hold in the minds of college football fans. Perhaps it's a result of the fact that every single week, one of the top teams takes a loss.
No. 4-ranked Baylor's 41-27 loss in Week 8 to unranked West Virginia drops the team's stock dramatically, although a strong finish and a Big 12 title could put the Bears back in the hunt if the SEC West contenders eat each other alive.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
After eight weeks of college football action that's seen more than its fair share of upsets, it's clear there is no such thing as a sure thing in FBS play. Still, one can make a reasonable prediction for the College Football Playoff by looking at the best teams' remaining schedules and deciphering which programs have the best chance of escaping the trap games and toppling the pushovers.
Let's take a look at some projections for the College Football Playoff.
Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: Florida State vs. Ole Miss
Rose Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan State
Championship Bowl: Alabama vs. Ole Miss
National Champion: Ole Miss
Florida State's Path to the Playoff
After defeating Notre Dame 31-27 in Week 8, the Seminoles should make it through the rest of their schedule unscathed. They have one truly tough opponent remaining in ACC-rival Louisville, a 6-2 team with a stifling defense and a mediocre offense.
The Cardinals have given up just 5.12 passing yards per attempt this season, per NCAA.com. Teams are converting just 21.5 percent of their third downs against Louisville's D, the lowest rate in the FBS.
WDRB's Eric Crawford noted in Week 7 how it seems the defense only relents and gives up a touchdown when luck dons the opposing team's colors:
Louisville has the ability to smother Jameis Winston's options and force him into making throws on the run, a scenario which led to an early pick in the 'Noles' win over the Fighting Irish.
Still, Florida State's own defense—which has held four opponents to 20 points or fewer this year—should be strong enough to stifle the Cardinals' attack and eke out a victory.
After that, it's a slate of games that includes the likes of Virginia, Florida and Boston College, none of whom have impressed up to this point in the season.
There is still a chance that one of these opponents will rise to the occasion and trip up Florida State, but it would be highly unlikely after a confidence-boosting win over the Cardinals.
At this point, even a late-season loss for the 'Noles—so long as it's close—might not be enough to derail a chance at a second consecutive national championship.
Alabama's Path to the Playoff
Alabama crushed No. 21-ranked Texas A&M by a score of 59-0 in Week 8 and once again, the college football world is on notice. The resounding victory and head coach Nick Saban's insatiable quest for perfection should have the remaining teams on the schedule fearful of getting swept away by the Crimson Tide.
"I think this is as close as we can get to the Alabama football that we want to try to get from our players in terms of effort, toughness, emotional excitement and execution that we got throughout the game," Saban said, via the Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com).
Alabama has to remain perfect the rest of the way to advance to the playoffs, which means defeating Mississippi State on Nov. 15. Fortunately, 'Bama has the home-field advantage in that game, and the crowd should be especially lively knowing that a spot in the playoffs will likely be on the line.
The Bulldogs have forced 16 turnovers this season, but Saban has his team whipped back into shape after disjointed performances against Arkansas and Ole Miss.
Quarterback Blake Sims will have to play like he did against the Aggies for the Crimson Tide to overcome Dak Prescott and company. Sims tossed three touchdowns against Texas A&M and picked up another score with his legs.
LSU is a possible trap game for the Crimson Tide, but Alabama's defense should be able to slowly squeeze the life out of the Tigers' middling passing attack, forcing Leonard Fournette and Kenny Hilliard to outperform the likes of T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry.
A rational being would take the latter two backs—and by extension, Alabama—in that situation.
Michigan State's Path to the Playoff
The Spartans dominated Indiana in Week 8, rolling to a 56-17 win behind three scoring passes from quarterback Connor Cook and three rushing touchdowns from running back Jeremy Langford. With the offense performing well, Michigan State is looking mighty dangerous on both sides of the ball at just the right time of year.
The Spartans' defense, led by defensive end Shilique Calhoun (five sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss) and linebacker Ed Davis (six sacks, eight TFL), has been absolutely monstrous this season, save for a down performance against the high-powered Oregon offense.
The unit as a whole should be able to stymie the rushing attacks of its future opponents and provide the offense with a big cushion in most games.
The Spartans still have their doubters, though. NFL.com's Bryan Fischer isn't looking forward to seeing them (possibly) inch up the polls after Week 8:
The emergence of Langford and running back Nick Hill as a dynamic tandem out of the backfield should provide Cook with plenty of support and allow him to take advantage of weary defenses down the stretch. He's been reliable all season long, tossing 16 touchdowns against just five interceptions.
Oregon is perhaps the biggest threat to take the Spartans' spot, followed by a Georgia squad that continues to make strides—with most of them coming from freshman tailback Nick Chubb—despite losing the sensational Todd Gurley to an indefinite suspension.
It's tough to imagine the Ducks' offensive line protecting Marcus Mariota well enough to pull off victories over Stanford and Utah in back-to-back weeks, let alone win the Pac-12 title outright.
The Big 10 has lost some of its luster in recent seasons, but it will send a surprise representative to the College Football Playoff when the remaining fringe contenders stumble.
Ole Miss' Path to the Playoff
This spot could just as easily go to Mississippi State, but Ole Miss should have the edge in the Egg Bowl, especially if the Bulldogs' psyche is shot after a loss to an Alabama team that was nearly left for dead in the SEC West.
That being said, Ole Miss can't gaze ahead to the end of the season; it must first get past SEC-rival Auburn on Nov. 1.
Quarterback Nick Marshall is the kind of dual-threat quarterback that can give any defense fits, and running back Cameron Artis-Payne is exceedingly tough to bring down, averaging 5.3 yards per carry on the season.
The momentum from wins over Tennessee and (potentially) LSU should carry the Rebels through this contest, leaving the aforementioned rivalry showdown on Nov. 29 against Mississippi State as the biggest roadblock to a playoff spot.
Quarterback Bo Wallace has pretty much been money after a three-interception game against Boise State to start the season. His ability to limit mistakes and hold onto the ball should give Ole Miss ample opportunities to win the remainder of its games.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
