Maryland Terrapins vs. Wisconsin Badgers Complete Game Preview
After a bye week to rest and heal up, the Wisconsin Badgers (4-2, 1-1 Big Ten) meet the Maryland Terrapins (5-2, 2-1 Big Ten) in a cross-divisional matchup at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday at noon ET.
Pitting one of the most consistent teams of the past decade-plus against a newcomer to the Big Ten in Maryland, this homecoming game is sure to be an interesting matchup between teams with highly contrasting styles.
Whereas the Badgers will look to set the tone with a physical run game, the Terrapins are stocked with arguably the best receiving corps in the conference and are not afraid to air the ball out as much as they can while largely ignoring the run game.
This game sets off a stretch of six games in a row to close the season, which see the Badgers travel to Rutgers and then Purdue in the following weeks. The Badgers need to win all three of these games to keep them in the running for a trip to Indianapolis and the Big Ten Championship Game.
After those three games, the Badgers return home to face fellow West Division power Nebraska. They then close their season with a trip to Kinnick Stadium to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes and end the year with a home game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the Battle for Paul Bunyan's Ax.
Maryland, meanwhile, is still in the thick of the East Division race, trailing just Michigan State and Ohio State and sitting one game off the pace. Maryland is in the midst of its most difficult stretch, having just taken on Ohio State and Iowa before coming to Madison.
After their game against the Badgers, the Terps travel to Happy Valley to play Penn State and then head home to face Michigan State. If the Terps can snag two wins in these games, they'll ensure bowl eligibility before heading to Ann Arbor and then facing Rutgers in a season-closing clash between this year's Big Ten debutants.
Let's take a look at the keys to victory and players to watch for both teams as well as a prediction for this week's matchup.
Wisconsin Keys to Victory
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Run the Ball
This has been a key every week, which makes sense, as the only way the Badgers are going to win is if they run the ball. When you have tailbacks as talented as Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement, establishing the run game should be at the top of the game plan each week.
Gordon is a Heisman candidate despite having Andy Ludwig calling plays and having virtually no passing game to help alleviate the stacked boxes he sees on a play-by-play basis. His 1,046 rushing yards in six games is incredible, particularly considering the fact that he sat out much of the second half against LSU and was a non-factor against Western Illinois a week later.
I'll say it again that Clement needs to be a bigger part of the offense, as playing in a 22 formation (two backs and two tight ends) with Gordon and Clement as the two backs makes for a nightmare scenario for opposing defenses.
When Derek Watt comes back into the fold, using him as one of the two tight ends, alongside Austin Traylor—the better of the two starting tight ends when it comes to run blocking—would make for a nearly unstoppable personnel grouping.
If the Badgers can chew clock and keep the chains moving against Maryland's rather porous defensive front, then they will have a good chance to win.
Improve on Special Teams
This is an odd second key to victory, but for the Badgers to win, they'll need to do a better job on special teams. Leaving Rafael Gaglianone's struggles aside as the freshman kicker has been shaky, particularly in any sort of weather conditions or the cold, the kickoffs and punting game are the main points here.
Kickoff specialist Andrew Endicott has 10 touchbacks on 37 kicks this season and is averaging 62.2 yards per kickoff, an improvement over last season when on 57 kicks he only had nine touchbacks and averaged 58.3 yards per kickoff. He will need to force multiple touchbacks this game to suppress the return yardage.
Meanwhile, if the Badgers can effectively move the chains, it will keep punter Drew Meyer off the field. But with Ludwig's play-calling, Meyer will be called upon to try and reverse the field numerous times over the course of the game.
Meyer is averaging only 39.0 yards per punt and has shanked quite a few, giving opponents good field position without even returning the ball. Making matters worse, when the Badgers' opponents do return punts, they've had incredible success.
Of the eight punts that have been returned, opponents are averaging 14.5 yards per return. Maryland is one of the best punt-returning teams in the country, averaging 19.0 yards per return with two touchdowns thus far this season.
Meyer will need to either kick the ball with better hang time, something he's struggled with at times, or kick the ball out of bounds to limit the dangerous Maryland return game.
Maryland Keys to Victory
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Throw Long
With Stefon Diggs and Deon Long in the fold, throwing the ball downfield should be a part of the team's game plan regardless of the opponent. When you are playing a team with corners as conciliatory as those of the Badgers, passing deep should be the first-, second- and third-down call.
Diggs and Long have combined for 72 receptions for 887 yards and five touchdowns this season with Diggs chipping in the lion's share of those with 45 receptions and 580 yards. With both players showing an uncanny ability to run routes both short and long, it would be a mistake to do anything other than air it out.
Cornerbacks Sojourn Shelton and Darius Hillary have shown an inability to cover deep passes all season and have yet to play a pair of receivers as accomplished and talented as Diggs and Long.
Sell Out Against the Run
Melvin Gordon is a known quantity. No matter what you do, he will get yards—lots of them. With that being said, with eight or nine guys in the box, he will not get nearly as many as if there are five, six or seven men in the box.
Joel Stave and Tanner McEvoy are unknown quantities. McEvoy is completing 58 percent of his passes, while Stave is completing 45.5 percent. McEvoy's numbers are inflated thanks to a crazy string of completions against FCS Western Illinois.
In fact, when you look at the Badgers' passing numbers against only FBS teams, they have only 557 yards while completing only 46.7 percent of their passes with three touchdowns and seven interceptions. As a point of comparison, Washington State quarterback Connor Halliday has thrown for at least that many yards in a game twice in his career.
With all of that being said, if Stave's arm beats you, so be it, but you have to make sure that the game rests upon the arm of whomever is playing quarterback and not the Badgers' talented running backs.
Wisconsin Players to Watch
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Joel Stave, Quarterback
Since his return, quarterback Joel Stave has been subpar, going 15-of-33 for 187 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions in his three halves of work. He lost out on the starting job and developed a well-documented case of the "yips" in the wake of the decision.
Since cured of his mental issues, Stave has returned as the 1a in the Badgers dual-quarterback system, taking the majority of snaps under center. With a full game under his belt and a bye week to boot, he will need to return to form if the Badgers want to make another run at Indianapolis and the Big Ten Championship.
Stave was pretty good last season, throwing for 2,494 yards while completing 61.9 percent of his passes for 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, though his penchant for turning the ball over in big situations led to much clamor during the spring and summer to depose him as the starter.
While (many) fans got their wish to have anyone but Stave in as the starter, the first few games showed the Badgers are better with him as their quarterback than with anyone else the coaching staff feels comfortable with on the roster right now.
If Stave can avoid turning the ball over, complete 60 percent of his passes or higher and connect on one or two deep throws, the Badgers will be in great shape to beat the Terrapins. If he throws multiple interceptions and can't find anyone downfield, the Badgers would be ripe for an upset.
Leon Jacobs, Linebacker
With both inside linebackers banged up last week, Leon Jacobs made a huge impression. The sophomore linebacker brings an element of speed that neither Derek Landisch nor Marcus Trotter has, which led Jacobs to 12 tackles, two tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks.
While it looks like both Landisch and Trotter will play, Jacobs should still see some reps, either on the inside or on the outside, where he has played in practice at times. While Landisch and Trotter can make plays, Jacobs has an extra element of athleticism that will keep the inside linebacker position in good hands after the graduation of both starters this season.
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Maryland Players to Watch
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Stefon Diggs, Wide Reciever
The numbers speak for themselves when it comes to Diggs, who has 45 catches for 580 yards and four touchdowns this season. He was on pace for a big season last year before a broken leg against Wake Forest derailed his season.
With no one in the Badgers secondary to slow him down, though Sojourn Shelton will try, Diggs is primed for a field day. He hasn't been held to fewer than five receptions or 50 yards in a single game this season, and that trend will likely continue.
For the Terrapins to be successful, it will fall on Diggs' shoulders to stretch out the Badgers secondary and make plays all over the field with batterymate Deon Long. I'd look for Diggs to snag seven balls for 100 yards against the Badgers secondary, with anything short of that ending in a loss for the Terps.
L.A. Goree, Linebacker
Patrolling the middle, L.A. Goree has been an unstoppable force this season, racking up 60 tackles in just six games this season, ranging from sideline to sideline to make plays all over the field and establishing himself as a rock in the middle of the Terrapins' suspect defense.
It will be on Goree to clean up the mess numerous times as Gordon typically has few problems getting to the second level. If Goree can make plays at the point of attack in the run game and stuff the underneath passing game, then it could be a long day for the Badgers unless they can get something going over the top.
What They're Saying
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Wisconsin
In his weekly Monday press conference, head coach Gary Andersen addressed the topic on everyone's mind: how the two quarterback system will work.
"I wouldn't say it's a competition," Andersen said when asked about whether Stave and McEvoy are competing. "We have two quarterbacks. And those kids are completely on board with that. And that's the way I see us progressing, and that's the way we are moving forward."
Another question on everyone's mind is whether nose guard Warren Herring and fullback Derek Watt would return.
"Yeah, those kids [Watt and Herring], as soon as they can get back and play, they'll be prepared to get into the game-prep opportunities," Andersen said. "That will be handled a lot earlier in the week, especially by the trainers. It's really going to be how they progress. If they're ready to play, I'll expect them to jog out there and be ready to play. How much they play, you know, who really knows.
"I think it's so early to say. But if they're ready to go, they'll play quite a few reps on Saturday."
Maryland
After beating Iowa 38-31, head coach Randy Edsall spoke about the injury starting quarterback C.J. Brown suffered.
"We’ll see how he feels; he’s sore," Edsall said after describing Brown's injury, which he called an "upper trap issue. "He wanted to go back in, and he was cleared through our medical people. I’m sure he’ll be sore. He’ll probably stay in a cold tub down there for probably another three hours before he heads home."
Edsall also spoke about his team's resiliency and ability to rally back to victory:
"It is a group that understands that things will go wrong in a game and that it will not always be pretty, but what you have to do is just keep battling on each and every play. That is what we do and we talk about it all of the time. It seems that the message has been heard and they are going out there and living up to everything that those messages are talking about on a daily basis.
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Prediction
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Coming off a bye week with a rested Melvin Gordon and a rapidly healing team on the whole, the Badgers will come out firing for the first time in a first quarter since their destruction of Bowling Green.
Despite the Terrapins' selling out against the run, Gordon still cracks 150 yards but doesn't make it five straight 175-yard games. With a full game under his belt, Joel Stave goes 14-of-20 for 200 yards, connecting with Alex Erickson on a 40-plus-yard bomb on play action, his first long completion of the year.
Maryland will throw and then throw some more, though its fate rests on the injured muscles of C.J. Brown. His ability to run and pass makes him a nightmare for the Badgers, as they've struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks and defend the deep pass.
After jumping out to a 14-3 lead through the end of the first quarter, the Badgers seemingly forget the game plan, and a combination of poor play and bad play-calling leads the Terrapins to cut the deficit to 17-13 at halftime.
With Gordon breaking another long run to open the second half, the Badgers score to make it 24-13. The two teams play evenly for the rest of the game en route to a 30-20 victory for the Badgers, after two drives stall in the red zone instead of scoring touchdowns for Wisconsin, which would have put the game away.
Wisconsin 30, Maryland 20
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