Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Every Playoff Contender's Second Half of 2014
This weekend marks the tipping point in the 2014 college football season. We’re through seven weeks of the “regular season,” and depending on which league you’re in, seven or eight weeks remain. For leagues with a title game, it’s seven weeks, and for those without it’s eight, since some leagues finish their regular seasons on the championship weekend of Dec. 5-6.
This marks the first year of the new College Football Playoff, and intrigue surrounding college football’s expanded postseason is high. When the College Football Playoff selection committee releases its first rankings on Oct. 28, we’ll have a better idea of which teams are serious playoff contenders, but the first half of the season has already done plenty to separate the haves from the have-nots in the playoff picture. Yahoo Sports’ Pat Forde has an excellent look at which teams are true contenders.
Here, we’re taking a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for every College Football Playoff contender. To determine these contenders, we used the top 13 teams in the latest Associated Press Top 25 rankings. That isn’t to say that a team can’t get hot and make the playoff, but these teams have shown they’re legitimate contenders, based on key wins or their upcoming schedule and opportunities for big wins.
Alabama
1 of 13
Record: 5-1
Best-Case Scenario
At 5-1, Alabama remains in excellent shape for a shot at the SEC West championship. The Crimson Tide need to win out and hope Ole Miss loses two games along the way. But even if that doesn’t happen, Nick Saban and Co. are far from out of the playoff picture.
Alabama has three games against currently ranked teams left on its schedule: Saturday against No. 21 Texas A&M, Nov. 15 vs. No. 1 Mississippi State and Nov. 29 vs. No. 6 Auburn.
Best case? The Tide win all those games, win at LSU and Tennessee and grab a playoff spot, even with a second-place SEC West finish.
Worst-Case Scenario
Alabama’s offense has struggled over the last two weeks, managing a total of 31 points in the Ole Miss loss and an ugly win at Arkansas. Before this month, the Tide hadn’t been held under 20 points in a game since November 2011.
Worst case? Alabama can’t keep up with A&M, the Bulldogs and Auburn and loses all three home games, finishes 8-4 and winds up in the Outback Bowl, which amplifies rumors of Saban’s departure for greener, or at least different, pastures.
Auburn
2 of 13
Record: 5-1
Best-Case Scenario
Despite suffering its first loss of 2014 last week at then-No. 3 Mississippi State, Auburn is in solid shape to make the College Football Playoff and build on last season’s national runner-up finish. AU tailback Cameron Artis-Payne agrees, per AL.com's Brandon Marcello.
"I definitely feel like we're one of the top three or four teams in the country, so I feel we should be a playoff team," Payne said. "It was 2 versus 3, so it's not like we lost to a lackluster team."
The Tigers must win out and hope the Bulldogs lose twice to win the SEC West, but regardless they have plenty of chances left to enhance their national resume.
Auburn has four games left against current Top 25 teams: Nov. 1 at No. 3 Ole Miss, Nov. 8 vs. No. 21 Texas A&M, Nov. 15 at No. 10 Georgia and Nov. 29 at No. 7 Alabama. Should the Tigers and their solid run offense (262 yards per game, No. 15 nationally) win out, it’d be hard to keep them out of the final four, regardless of Mississippi State’s results.
Worst-Case Scenario
Auburn’s remaining road schedule is mighty treacherous. If opponents can find a way to shut down Nick Marshall and the Tigers’ read-option, it could mean an 0-3 road swing against Top 10 teams, which would be truly disastrous. An 8-4 record and a trip to the TaxSlayer or Outback Bowl would be a major comedown for a rejuvenated fanbase.
Baylor
3 of 13
Record: 6-0
Best-Case Scenario
Through six games, Baylor has done everything necessary to stay in the College Football Playoff hunt. Led by senior quarterback Bryce Petty, the Bears boast an explosive offense (52.7 PPG) and are coming off one of the most memorable comebacks in program history, erasing a 58-37 deficit with 11 minutes left to stun TCU, 61-58.
Baylor’s toughest tests remain. The Bears finish the season with a trip to No. 11 Oklahoma and host No. 15 Oklahoma State and No. 14 Kansas State in the last four games. Best case, the Bears beat Oklahoma in a shootout, hold off the Cowboys and Wildcats and take their second consecutive Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff berth.
Worst-Case Scenario
Oklahoma gets revenge for last season’s 41-12 beatdown in Waco, and after a bye the Cowboys surprise Baylor in Waco. A 10-2 record and a Holiday Bowl berth doesn’t seem particularly appetizing.
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Florida State
4 of 13
Record: 6-0
Best-Case Scenario
Defending last season’s BCS national title has been anything but easy for Jimbo Fisher and Florida State. The Seminoles have endured multiple off-field controversies and stories involving Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jameis Winston, who was suspended for the Clemson game after yelling a vulgarity on the FSU campus. FSU survived that game 23-17 in overtime and erased an early 17-point deficit for a 56-41 win at N.C. State.
The Seminoles have two truly treacherous games left: Saturday’s visit from No. 5 Notre Dame and Oct. 30’s visit to Louisville, which is a Thursday night, nationally televised game on ESPN. Win those, and it’s hard to see how anyone could topple this team on the way to an unbeaten season and College Football Playoff bid.
The Seminoles are the ACC's only serious playoff contender, meaning the league's hopes ride with FSU, as Boston College quarterback Tyler Murphy acknowledged to the Associated Press.
“It would be big if we get an ACC team into the playoff,” Murphy said. And as a competitor, you hope FSU will be undefeated when they come into our game.”
Worst-Case Scenario
Saturday night, the Fighting Irish and Everett Golson march into Tallahassee and end FSU’s 22-game winning streak, all but torpedoing its playoff hopes in the process. A Louisville team takes advantage of an electric night and stuns the Seminoles.
Evidence surfaces connecting Winston to payments for his autograph, effectively ending his college career, and while the Seminoles win the ACC title and go to the Orange Bowl, the season feels hollow.
Georgia
5 of 13
Record: 5-1
Best-Case Scenario
Georgia began the season with a bang with a 45-21 victory over Clemson and have rebounded from what increasingly looks like an inexplicable loss at South Carolina. Even without star tailback Todd Gurley (suspended while the NCAA investigates alleged payments for his autograph from a memorabilia dealer), the Bulldogs bashed then-No. 23 Missouri 34-0, intercepting Maty Mauk four times.
The weaker SEC East hurts a possible College Football Playoff push: A Nov. 15 visit from No. 6 Auburn is the only Top 25 game left on the schedule. If the Bulldogs beat Auburn and take out what will be a top-two SEC West team in the SEC title game, they have a case for one of four playoff bids.
Worst-Case Scenario
The NCAA rules against Gurley, ending his college career prematurely. Florida and an embattled Will Muschamp spring an upset on UGA in Jacksonville, and Auburn doesn’t need a tip-drill score to roll the Dawgs in Athens. A 9-3 record and Outback Bowl bid leave many in the UGA camp deeply unsatisfied.
Michigan State
6 of 13
Record: 5-1
Best-Case Scenario
Michigan State has rebounded very nicely from a 46-27 loss at then-No. 3 Oregon. The Spartans are 4-0 since, beating what looks like the Big Ten West’s best team in Nebraska, and are hoping to find momentum that carries them into the College Football Playoff. Nov. 8’s visit from No. 13 Ohio State will likely decide the Big Ten East’s winner.
Win that and an 11-1 regular season with a winnable matchup against Wisconsin or Nebraska in the Big Ten title game looks likely. That’s MSU’s best argument for a playoff berth.
Worst-Case Scenario
Ohio State comes into East Lansing and doles out some revenge for Sparty ending its 24-game winning streak in last season’s Big Ten title game, and Christian Hackenberg strafes the MSU defense three weeks later in Happy Valley. A 9-3 season doesn’t feel very satisfying, given the high expectations that Mark Dantonio’s charges began the season with.
Mississippi State
7 of 13
Record: 6-0
Best-Case Scenario
Mississippi State is the top story of the college football season so far. A team that needed overtime wins over Arkansas and Ole Miss just to make a bowl game last season has been truly special, with dual-threat junior quarterback Dak Prescott (2,054 yards, 22 total touchdowns) emerging as a top candidate for the Heisman Trophy.
MSU boasts wins over three consecutive teams ranked in the Top 10 (LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn) and looks like a true College Football Playoff contender.
The second half of the schedule is still treacherous, with road games at No. 7 Alabama and No. 3 Ole Miss. The Bulldogs become road warriors, taking out the Tide and the Rebels en route to the SEC West title, a 12-0 record and a very winnable SEC title game. The No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff awaits.
Worst-Case Scenario
Road success at LSU doesn’t translate, and Dan Mullen’s group falls at Tuscaloosa to ruin its unbeaten season and then has to watch two weeks later as Ole Miss clinches the SEC West title in Oxford. Two days later, Florida fires Will Muschamp, sending the Mullen-to-Florida rumors into hyperdrive as the Bulldogs prepare for the Citrus Bowl.
Notre Dame
8 of 13
Record: 6-0
Best-Case Scenario
Buoyed by Everett Golson’s return and Brian VanGorder’s revamped defense, the Fighting Irish have shrugged off an academic controversy that remains unresolved, per Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune, to return to their 2012 form. Saturday’s trip to No. 2 Florida State is a huge referendum on their progress.
The remaining schedule is treacherous but provides a path to the College Football Playoff. If the Irish beat FSU, win at No. 17 Arizona State and take out No. 22 Southern Cal in the regular-season finale, it’d be tough to keep Brian Kelly’s team out of the final four.
Worst-Case Scenario
Notre Dame and Golson are embarrassed in Tallahassee and lose to Arizona State, Louisville and Southern Cal to finish the regular season 8-4. A trip to a mid-tier ACC-affiliated bowl awaits while Kelly and Co. try to figure out what went wrong.
Ohio State
9 of 13
Record: 4-1
Best-Case Scenario
It’s hard to imagine a worse start than the one Ohio State endured. In August, the Buckeyes found out senior quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Braxton Miller would redshirt following shoulder surgery. In Week 2, Virginia Tech marched into Ohio Stadium and handed Urban Meyer his first home loss as OSU coach, a loss that looks worse by the week.
However, freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett has rebounded, throwing 17 touchdowns against five interceptions, and OSU averages 44.6 points per game (fifth nationally). The Buckeyes’ schedule looks promising, with only one Top 25 team left.
Best case? Ohio State marches into East Lansing and gets revenge on No. 8 Michigan State for its 2013 Big Ten title game upset, then torches Nebraska or Wisconsin for a Big Ten title, 12-1 record and legit claim at a College Football Playoff berth.
Worst-Case Scenario
The Spartans' improving defense dominates Barrett in East Lansing. An embattled Brady Hoke gets Michigan bowl eligibility and saves his job by winning in Columbus on Nov. 29, and Meyer starts wondering if he should begin spending more time with his family.
Oklahoma
10 of 13
Record: 5-1
Best-Case Scenario
Oklahoma was expected to be a College Football Playoff contender following 2013’s strong finish capped by a Sugar Bowl rout of Alabama, but a 37-33 loss to TCU was a serious step back. However, the Sooners still have time to stake their claim for a playoff berth.
They have three games left against current Top 25 teams, and all three are at home: Saturday vs. No. 14 Kansas State, Nov. 8 vs. No. 4 Baylor and Dec. 6 vs. No. 15 Oklahoma State. Win out, and the Sooners would claim the Big 12 championship and have a legit claim at one of the four playoff berths.
Worst-Case Scenario
Many expected sophomore quarterback Trevor Knight to take a step forward this season, but that hasn’t happened. He has six touchdowns against five interceptions, and two touchdowns against three interceptions in OU’s last three games.
The Sooners struggle past K-State, and another loss to Baylor ends their Big 12 and playoff hopes. In Bedlam, Oklahoma State and Mike Gundy stun the Sooners, leaving an ugly taste in their mouths and consigning them to a 9-3 record and an Alamo Bowl bid.
Ole Miss
11 of 13
Record: 6-0
Best-Case Scenario
What a season it’s been for Ole Miss. The Rebels have taken the leap from SEC also-ran to College Football Playoff contender behind a vicious defense and the steady play of senior quarterback Bo Wallace. The second half of the schedule won’t be easy, but the path is there for an unbeaten season, SEC title and College Football Playoff berth.
Ole Miss has three potentially treacherous games left: Oct. 25 at LSU, Nov. 1 vs. No. 6 Auburn, and perhaps the biggest Egg Bowl ever Nov. 29, hosting No. 1 Mississippi State. Win all three, and the Rebels would be 12-0 heading to the SEC title game in the Georgia Dome, a place where they began their season with a win over Boise State. They’d surely be favored over the SEC East team as well, a clear path to a top national seed.
Worst-Case Scenario
Wallace struggles at LSU and the Rebels are upset in Baton Rouge, then come home and find themselves unable to stop Auburn’s offense. With the SEC West out of the picture, they lose at home to Mississippi State and watch the Bulldogs celebrate a division title and much more in Oxford while they prepare to accept a Citrus Bowl berth.
Oregon
12 of 13
Record: 5-1
Best-Case Scenario
Oregon bounced back from a disappointing home loss to Arizona with a gritty 42-30 win at then-No. 18 UCLA last week, and the Ducks look like the class of the Pac-12 North. Mark Helfrich’s team still hopes to make a run for the College Football Playoff, with a pair of games left against Top 25 teams. No. 23 Stanford visits Nov. 1, and a trip to No. 20 Utah looms a week later.
The Ducks win both, finish the regular season 11-1 and exact some revenge against Arizona in the Pac-12 title game. The SEC West beats up on itself, and the SEC gets only one team in the College Football Playoff, allowing the Ducks to quack their way in.
Worst-Case Scenario
Oregon’s struggles with Stanford continue, and the Cardinal harass Oregon’s offensive line and Marcus Mariota to take an upset victory in Eugene. Oregon finishes the regular season 10-2, but double-digit wins again ring hollow, and fans start wondering if Chip Kelly can get out of his Philadelphia Eagles contract.
TCU
13 of 13
Record: 5-1
Best-Case Scenario
TCU is one of the best stories of the 2014 season’s first half. Gary Patterson’s decision to install a fast-paced offense has produced results. The Horned Frogs average 45.8 points per game, No. 3 nationally, and athletic junior quarterback Trevone Boykin has thrown for 11 touchdowns against two interceptions.
TCU’s conquest of Oklahoma gained the nation’s attention, but it must rebound from a stunning fourth-quarter collapse in a 61-58 loss at Baylor.
TCU has two games against ranked teams remaining, with Saturday’s visit from No. 15 Oklahoma State and Nov. 8’s visit from No. 14 Kansas State. Win out, and the Frogs would be 11-1, although they need two losses from Baylor to claim the Big 12 title. They’d have an outside shot at the College Football Playoff, but it won’t be easy.
Worst-Case Scenario
The Baylor hangover is real, and Oklahoma State wins another defense-optional game Saturday. West Virginia also strafes the Horned Frogs D, and Kansas State controls the clock and grinds out a win. An 8-4 record is still a lot better than 4-8, but a tinge of disappointment reigns in Fort Worth.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
