Buying or Selling Every Top 10 Team as Playoff Championship Contender
Just like how a shrewd investor has its stock broker's phone number on speed dial, college football fans should take frequent looks at how the top teams are faring as we inch closer toward the first-ever College Football Playoff.
The selection committee is set to release its first rankings on Tuesday, finally giving us an idea of how the four-team playoff is going to shake out. In advance of that, we've studied the portfolios of every school currently ranked in the Associated Press' top 10 to see if their stock is worth picking up or unloading.
Take a look at our evaluations, and make sure you're ready to buy or sell.
10. TCU Horned Frogs
1 of 10
Selling
If you base it on where teams began the season, rankings-wise, TCU (5-1) isn't the biggest surprise among the current Top 10 teams. That would be Mississippi State, which got one fewer vote than the Horned Frogs in the AP's preseason poll.
But where the Frogs do rank first, at least among the one-loss teams, is in the unenviable category of having the most unsettling and red flag-inducing defeat.
Georgia fell to a worse team, losing on the road to what we now know was a vastly overrated South Carolina team. But it was TCU that found itself up 21 points on the road with 11 minutes left and found itself walking off the field at Baylor's McLane Stadium about an hour later with a 61-58 defeat.
And with the Big 12 finding itself at a disadvantage to the other power conferences—it doesn't have a title game to use as a final sales pitch to the selection committee—all TCU has to sell itself with is are regular-season results. One loss shouldn't eliminate the Horned Frogs, and it hasn't, but collapsing like that down the stretch doesn't exactly foster confidence.
TCU did the best thing possible in response to that loss, blowing out a good Oklahoma State team the following week, and it has two remaining chances to improve its stock. Those come in back-to-back weeks—at West Virginia and then home against Kansas State—but after that there are three more games against three of the Big 12's bottom four teams, which isn't the kind of closing slate that will earn the Frogs many style points.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 1 at West Virginia
9. Georgia Bulldogs
2 of 10
Buying
Georgia (6-1) hasn't been playing with the team it expected at the beginning of the season, thanks to Todd Gurley's indefinite suspension amid NCAA allegations of improper benefits. Yet the Bulldogs have looked better than at any other point this year during Gurley's absence, and with his return still possible it's very exciting to wonder what this team will look like with him back in action.
Nick Chubb and a wildly improved defense can be thanked for that.
Chubb has been masterful in relief of Gurley, rushing for 345 yards and three touchdowns during road wins at Missouri and Arkansas. Though not as dynamic as Gurley, the true freshman has shown he can carry the load by running it 68 times in those two games.
The Bulldogs' defense has made great strides under first-year coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, who oversaw the defenses of the last two BCS champions at Alabama and Florida State. Georgia is allowing 320.6 yards per game this season, compared to 375.5 a year ago, and the yards-per-play average has dropped from 5.41 in 2013 to 4.68 this fall.
Georgia officially applied for Gurley's reinstatement on Wednesday, and truth be told, it needs him in order to remain a playoff contender. The playoff selection committee is supposed to factor in players who have missed time into their evaluations, and while the Bulldogs have looked great without Gurley, they'll ultimately be judged based on whether he's available.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 15 vs. Auburn
8. Michigan State Spartans
3 of 10
Buying
Michigan State (6-1) is one of a growing list of one-loss teams that remain in contention for the playoffs, but the Spartans have one edge over the rest of those imperfect programs: It got that loss out of the way early, in nonconference play and on the road against a very good opponent.
That loss at Oregon on Sept. 6 was considered a "good loss" back when it happened, and it has increased in value, as Michigan State has improved and Oregon has gotten back on track following loss.
Much as it did in 2013 en route to the Big Ten title and a Rose Bowl victory, Michigan State is playing better each time it hits the field. Coaches preach improvement and building off past results, and the Spartans are a textbook example of this, doing so by getting better in some areas to help compensate for any breakdowns that occur elsewhere.
MSU's three Big Ten victories display this well. The win over Nebraska showed off its big-play ability and provided the first glimpse of that defense and its knack of shutting down stars, holding Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah to 1.9 yards per carry.
Then road wins over Purdue and Indiana, games that could easily have been letdowns because of the opponent, both showed how the Spartans' offense is improving and is capable of winning shootouts.
The Indiana win also put an end to one of MSU's biggest weaknesses: closing out a foe. It blew a nine-point lead at Oregon and nearly squandered big advantages against Nebraska and Purdue, yet that potent Hoosiers offense never had a chance down the stretch.
MSU's contention rests on two remaining games, though: in two weeks against Ohio State and, assuming a division title, the Big Ten title game. A 12-1 Spartans team will be as deserving as any one-loss team in the country.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 8 vs. Ohio State
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4 of 10
Selling
Notre Dame (6-1) is the most recent team among the Top 10 to have lost, falling 31-27 at Florida State last week after its final-minute drive was stifled by an offensive pass interference call on what would have been the go-ahead touchdown.
Despite the loss, the Fighting Irish might have more supporters among the pundit circuit than before the game, and not simply because of the "if that flag hadn't been thrown" argument. Instead, it was because of how the Irish looked throughout the game and how they appeared to accomplish more in defeat than most teams do in victory.
As Zach Braziller of the New York Post wrote, "It proved worthy of being included in the playoff despite the heartbreaking defeat, proved it not only can compete with the nation's very best teams, but beat them."
True, Notre Dame looked very good in going toe-to-toe with the defending champs, leading most of the way and doing so on the road with the entire college football world watching. But it seems like that kind of audience exists for every one of its games when Notre Dame is good, something that comes with the territory of being the most well-known program.
But we're selling the Irish, because despite their effort in Tallahassee there's still a major issue that's showing no sign of going away: Everett Golson's turnovers.
Golson had two more giveaways against Florida State, making that 11 in the past four games. The post-penalty interception can be discounted, but earlier he threw a bad interception in the red zone that only didn't cost the Irish because they got the ball back a play later. He also fumbled on a 4th-and-1 run but recovered the ball, though he couldn't get the first down.
As the best player on the team, as he's shown all season, having Golson also be Notre Dame's biggest weak spot is just too tremulous of a scenario to be confident about. A keen stock trader wouldn't buy shares in a company that has a wonder drug at risk of being pulled because of side effects, so why put so much faith in a mistake-prone playmaker?
Notre Dame has the kind of remaining schedule that can get it into the playoff despite a loss, but those same opponents are ones who could easily exploit what's been the Irish's biggest problem.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 8 at Arizona State
6. Oregon Ducks
5 of 10
Buying
How a team responds to a loss, especially an unexpected one, is as strong an indicator of its mettle as anything else. In that regard, Oregon (6-1) might be the best team in the country for the way it's performed since getting upset at home by Arizona on Oct. 2.
The Ducks' results since that game have been very impressive: a 42-30 win at UCLA (which was a 42-10 game early in the fourth quarter) and a 45-20 dismantling of Washington at home. Both games have seen Oregon's offense perform at peak level, while its defense has cut down on the big plays in critical moments that led to the Arizona loss.
Oregon has allowed 120 plays of 10 or more yards, which is tied for 114th in FBS. UCLA had 22 such plays, but many came after the game was no longer in doubt, while Washington only had 11. It gave up 10 during the second half against Arizona, when it allowed 28 points after holding down Arizona in the first half.
Not to be forgotten, though, is that Oregon sports the best player in the country in junior quarterback Marcus Mariota. At 320.9 yards per game, he's 14th nationally in total offense, but that rank jumps to third (and tops among power-conference players) in yards per play at 9.2.
The Ducks also have probably the most explosive offense among the contenders, one that is not too dependent on just the pass or just the run. It piled up 46 points on Michigan State's defense and 42 on UCLA, and the Ducks have gained at least 446 yards in every game.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 1 vs. Stanford
5. Auburn Tigers
6 of 10
Buying
The last time we saw Auburn (5-1), it got punched in the face early and wasn't able to fight back effectively. The quick hole was something the Tigers had never faced before, and it caused many people who were thinking this year's version was better than the BCS title game entrants from 2013 to re-evaluate that opinion.
But Auburn hasn't had a chance to show how much of an impact that 38-23 loss at Mississippi State two weeks ago has affected it since it was on a bye last week. And this weekend's game against South Carolina might not provide much insight, considering the Gamecocks are far worse than expected this season.
Of all of the top contenders, Auburn fits the most into the "wait-and-see" category that stock traders dread because it means not being able to make confident decisions at this time. We need more data on the Tigers, which we'll get during a November schedule that features three games against Top 10 teams, all on the road.
Forced to pick, though, we're buying Auburn because of the system Gus Malzahn has in place. The players fit well in it, and if not for some massive miscues right out of the gate at Mississippi State it would likely have been a very different game. The Tigers were also the one team during MSU's recent tear through Top 10 opponents who was able to battle back early before ultimately getting worn down.
Nick Marshall's passing prowess will need to improve if Auburn is going to remain a contender, because upcoming opponents Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama are all ranked in the top 16 in rushing defense this season. The Tigers' massively improved defense also keeps them in the hunt.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 1 at Ole Miss
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
7 of 10
Buying
Alabama (6-1) has been a victim of its own past success this season, as can be seen by how coach Nick Saban went off on criticism for his team winning by only one point at Arkansas and how the Crimson Tide's bandwagon seemed to get a lot less crowded after the tough loss at Ole Miss.
Look closer at this results, and what Alabama has done overall, and the better way of looking at things is that this team has been challenged and fared relatively well. In spite of entering the year with uncertainty at quarterback and questions in the secondary, the Crimson Tide remain in the hunt for the playoffs and should be considered as dangerous as any other contender.
Maybe even more so, because of the experience that some of Alabama's veterans, most notably running back T.J. Yeldon and receiver Amari Cooper, have from being in the thick of it most of last season and during Bama's second straight BCS title in 2012.
Blake Sims was shaky at times during Bama's two-game road trip, having his two worst games of the season, but he didn't fall apart. And his play last time out, in the 59-0 demolition of Texas A&M, showed his ability to bounce back and shake off past struggles. Despite the matchup advantage for the Tide, Sims could have easily let the past linger and affect his play, but it didn't happen.
Bama's schedule isn't kind, with even its lone remaining game against an unranked FBS team (Saturday at Tennessee) providing some added intrigue because of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin's history with the Volunteers, but difficult games haven't been something Saban's past teams have shied away from, and this one won't buckle under the pressure.
If Alabama loses, it will be because of the opponent, not itself.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 8 at LSU
3. Ole Miss Rebels
8 of 10
Selling
Defense wins championships.
It's one of the more frequently uttered cliches when talking about the best teams in any sport. It applies best to Ole Miss (7-0) among college football's Top 10, as the Rebels have been the most dominant defensive team in the country.
But can defense truly carry a team, in this era of offensive explosion? It's worked for Ole Miss so far, but at some point it's going to have a defensive letdown and get into a high-scoring game. And that's when it could be in trouble.
Ole Miss ranks 51st in total offense, the lowest of any Top 10 team, and while its No. 30 scoring offense rank is ahead of Notre Dame, that's boosted by four defensive touchdowns. Quarterback Bo Wallace has been mostly mistake-free this season, but in the Rebels' two least-impressive games (vs. Boise State and Memphis) he threw a combined five interceptions, and last time out he only completed 13 of 28 passes.
The Rebels also have no consistent run game, averaging only 3.85 yards per carry. Without offensive balance, a team needs to have a one-man superstar, which Wallace is not.
What's on Ole Miss' side more than anything is one of the more favorable schedules remaining for contenders. Saturday's trip to LSU is one of only two road games left—the other at SEC West doormat Arkansas—while it gets Auburn and rival Mississippi State at home. Still, Ole Miss feels like the most vulnerable team of those near the top.
Next stock evaluation: Oct. 25 at LSU
2. Florida State Seminoles
9 of 10
Buying
Yes, Florida State (7-0) has played with fire in several of its games this season, needing overtime to beat Clemson at home (while Heisman-winning quarterback Jameis Winston was stuck on the sideline in street clothes) and a properly called offensive pass interference penalty against Notre Dame to survive that matchup. The Seminoles haven't been nearly as dominant as they were in winning last year's title, but who says they have to be?
When it comes to being playoff-ready, showing the ability to come out on top despite near-constant adversity is as important an ingredient as a team's talent and their ability to perform at a high level.
"One thing we are consistently proving is that we are winners," Winston told William C. Rhoden of the New York Times. "And no matter what type of adversity we may face, we are family here at Florida State, and we play hard."
Winston's struggles have all been off the field. When on it, he's actually been better than last season, averaging 313 passing yards per game while completing 70.6 percent of his throws. When the Seminoles need a big play, he's made it, and unless he's unable to play he should continue to provide that ability to come through in the clutch.
FSU still needs its run game to get better, and that defense must become better at stopping opponents. The remaining schedule will provide a few good tests—the toughest being the next one up at Louisville—but also manageable enough that the Seminoles have a good chance to remain undefeated heading into the playoffs.
And as the defending champs, their value shall remain high until they lose.
Next stock evaluation: Oct. 30 at Louisville
1. Mississippi State Bulldogs
10 of 10
Buying
Mississippi State (6-0) has three wins over Top 10 teams, but only one of those remains ranked that high, and another has fallen completely from the rankings. Nevertheless, the way the Bulldogs looked in those games carries more value than what's come of those opponents since.
With Dak Prescott working his magic and moving up the Heisman contender ranks, MSU's offense has had few hiccups. It averages 41.8 points per game, never scoring fewer than 34 points, and has done so despite turning the ball over 13 times as a team. Those mistakes have yet to cost the Bulldogs, though in their last game against Auburn some miscues briefly let Auburn back into the game before MSU stepped back on the gas.
Prescott has 2,054 yards of total offense and has been responsible for 23 touchdowns, including nine as a rusher or receiver. But he's not the only weapon MSU has, as Josh Robinson is bowling over tacklers to the tune of seven yards per carry with eight TDs.
MSU's defense gives up some points, but often those numbers get padded late as it lets off on the gas. It's strong stopping the run, which is critical in close situations, allowing only 3.39 yards per carry with opponents managing just two rushing TDs all season.
The Bulldogs will be hard-pressed to get out of the regular season unbeaten, as its two hardest remaining challenges are both on the road. But if they get into the semifinals, the experience gained from potentially playing as many as six Top 10 teams along the way will have them as prepared as anyone for the playoff atmosphere.
Next stock evaluation: Nov. 15 at Alabama
All statistical information courtesy of CFBStats.com.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
