Bowl Predictions 2014: Updated Playoff Projections Heading into Week 8
We projected Florida State, Oklahoma, Michigan State and Alabama as the four playoff teams heading into Week 7’s slate of games, and we are not going to change that now.
Yes, the Crimson Tide struggled mightily against an Arkansas team that hasn’t won a conference game since 2012, and the Spartans let Purdue hang around far too long, but the bottom line is both teams came away with victories.
Elsewhere, the Seminoles handled Syracuse, and the Sooners narrowly escaped a matchup with their archrival, Texas. The game against the Longhorns may have been too close for comfort from Oklahoma’s perspective, but some rivalry games really do follow the “throw the records out” cliche.
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Week 8 does not get much easier for Florida State, Oklahoma or Alabama, but the good news is all three teams are at home. The thought here is that the Seminoles outlast Notre Dame, the Sooners knock off Kansas State and the Crimson Tide handle a Texas A&M team that is likely overrated to begin with given its recent performances against the Mississippi schools and Arkansas.
Michigan State should handle Indiana based on the talent gap alone, even if the Hoosiers did expose Missouri earlier in the season.
That means the playoff projections stay intact for another week. However, they are far from set in stone with potential trap games looming. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few dark-horse teams that won’t actually make the playoffs but could realistically disrupt the path for those with postseason hopes.
Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: Florida State vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: Michigan State vs. Alabama
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (Semifinal winners)
Dark-horse Teams That Could Derail Playoff Hopes
Louisville
Weird things happen on Thursday nights in the college football world, and Florida State will walk into Louisville on Thursday, Oct. 30 with its playoff hopes on the line.
This also happens to be the next game for the Seminoles after their prime-time showdown with Notre Dame, and they also have rivalry clashes with Miami and Florida down the road. There is the possibility that they could overlook Louisville.
As Patrick Stevens of D1scourse.com noted, that may not be the best idea:
That Louisville defense Stevens mentioned is third in the nation in points allowed per game at 14.1 and held Florida International to three points, Wake Forest to 10, Syracuse to six and Clemson to 23 in its last four games.
On the other hand, Florida State is averaging 39 points a game, so something will have to give. Considering Notre Dame’s recent turnover problems and defensive struggles, and the fact that the game against the Fighting Irish is in Tallahassee, the trip to Louisville could actually be more difficult for the Seminoles in their quest to repeat as national champions.
Maryland
Michigan State likely has one game circled on its remaining calendar: a Nov. 8 showdown with Ohio State that could very well decide the Big Ten championship and even a spot in the College Football Playoff.
However, if the Spartans do come away with a victory against the Buckeyes, it is not that difficult to envision something of an emotional letdown in the next game. That contest is at Maryland, and the Terrapins will likely be fired up to make a statement to the rest of the Big Ten that they have arrived, especially after missing a similar chance in a loss to Ohio State.
This one will also be under the lights and in front of what should be a raucous crowd.
Ohio State coach Urban Meyer actually provided some words of warning to anyone who overlooked Maryland, via Patrick Maks of Eleven Warriors, "They’re the most athletic defense we’ll face so far this year."
On the other side of the ball for Maryland, wide receiver Stefon Diggs is one of fastest and most electrifying players in all of college football. The vaunted Michigan State defense gave up 46 points to Oregon and an inexplicable 31 to Purdue, which means there could be some holes in the secondary for Diggs to exploit.
If he gets Maryland on the board early and lets the Terrapins' athletic defense do some work, this one could get interesting for Michigan State’s playoff hopes.
LSU
It has come to this for LSU in 2014; it is considered a dark horse that could play spoiler to a contender’s season instead of actually being a contender itself.
Alabama visits LSU on Nov. 8 in a game that will in all likelihood be under the lights. The Tigers were crushed by Auburn, lost 34-29 to Mississippi State and needed a miraculous final couple of minutes to beat Florida 30-27 in the Swamp. Safe to say, they have fallen off the national radar a bit this season.
LSU has no chance at the playoffs or a realistic opportunity to win the SEC West with two head-to-head losses against Mississippi State and Auburn, which means it can redefine the 2014 season with a win against archrival Alabama.
By Nov. 8, the inexperience on the LSU roster won’t be quite as much of an issue, and the combination of Leonard Fournette and the LSU offensive line could pose a problem for the Crimson Tide. If Alabama stacks the box, the Tigers could also hit Travin Dural over the top.
Ultimately, the talent on the Alabama side may win out, but don’t overlook the Tigers as a serious threat to the Crimson Tide’s playoff hopes.
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