49ers vs. Broncos: Complete Week 7 Preview for San Francisco
The San Francisco 49ers will move from one prime-time showdown to another as they travel to take on the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field in Week 7 on Sunday Night Football.
San Francisco is coming off a 31-17 Monday Night Football victory over the St. Louis Rams in Week 6—a game that saw the 49ers trailing 14-0 in the first quarter. Fortunately enough, San Francisco was able to turn around its slow start en route to its third straight victory.
Denver is also coming off a 31-17 victory in Week 6, having defeated the New York Jets on the road. The game itself eerily paralleled that of the 49ers'—an aspect described further by Kyle Montgomery of SB Nation's Mile High Report.
"Pretty funny. 49ers and Broncos meet this Sunday. They had sort of mirror image games this week http://t.co/ycgExL2Ijj
— Niners Nation (@NinersNation) October 14, 2014"
According to Odds Shark, the 4-1 Broncos are six-point favorites over the visiting 3-2 49ers.
On paper, this makes sense. San Francisco is taking to the road on a short week. On top of that, Jim Harbaugh's squad has to contend with a number of critical injuries. Then there comes the task of stopping Peyton Manning and the high-powered Denver offense.
"Harbaugh on #49ers facing @Broncos QB Peyton Manning: "We're going to have to be at our best."
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 15, 2014"
But games aren't won on paper. The 49ers will set out to prove this.
It might be a daunting task, but is San Francisco in position to stage its first upset of the season?
We break down everything you need to know about that possibility, along with all the news and tidbits that will play roles in this exciting Week 7 matchup.
49ers' Week 6 Recap
1 of 5Week 6 could hardly have gotten off to a poorer start than it did for the 49ers in St. Louis.
The Rams opened the game with a touchdown on their opening drive. Led by backup quarterback Austin Davis, St. Louis' offense moved the ball easily against what looked like an unprepared San Francisco defense, resulting in the score.
Just as the 49ers attempted to answer back, No. 2 tight end Vance McDonald fumbled the ball after hauling in a 21-yard pass. The Rams subsequently recovered, then marched down the field for another touchdown drive.
On top of the early setbacks, St. Louis did an excellent job limiting San Francisco's most reliable weapon—the running game.
Entering Week 6, the Rams were averaging 152.5 yards against on the ground. This figured to play right into the 49ers' strengths. Yet St. Louis put all efforts together to contain running backs Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde—the two combined for just 52 yards in the contest.
"The Rams were selling out against the run. Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde combined for 27 carries for 52 yards (1.9 ypc).
— Chris Biderman (@ChrisBiderman) October 14, 2014"
But this opened up opportunities for Colin Kaepernick and the passing game—elements that finally got into rhythm late in the second quarter.
Kaepernick hooked up with 33-year-old Brandon Lloyd for an 80-yard touchdown pass which, after the extra point, brought the 49ers within four points.
"Harbaugh on @mrblloyd's TD catch before halftime: "It gave us momentum. We talked about coming back and keeping it."#49ers
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 14, 2014"
The 49ers continued their surge in the third quarter with two more unanswered touchdowns, the first of which was an 11-yard red-zone pass to Anquan Boldin.
"VIDEO: @Kaepernick7 displayed some impressive touch on a beautiful TD pass to Anquan Boldin. http://t.co/RBui4NmA7L pic.twitter.com/1vliiGJKH3
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 14, 2014"
The play, which is further described by Paul Gutierrez of ESPN, was initially supposed to go toward Joe Staley, who had lined up as a receiving option. But Rams defensive end Robert Quinn brought Staley down, which forced Kaepernick to improvise.
He did so, finding Boldin in the process.
Kaepernick would later hook up with Michael Crabtree for the 49ers' third offensive touchdown on the night.
San Francisco's pass-rushers also deserve some credit. Coming into the contest, the 49ers had amassed just five sacks on the season. They doubled that against St. Louis.
But the Rams did not go away quietly. A fourth-quarter field goal brought St. Louis within one possession. But a late pick-six by rookie defensive back Dontae Johnson sealed San Francisco's victory.
While the come-from-behind victory was a positive note for a resurgent 49ers team, there were some sour tastes left behind. A number of offensive miscues, including McDonald's fumble and the dropped would-be touchdown between a colliding McDonald and Vernon Davis, provided some frustrating moments.
More importantly, the injury bug bit San Francisco hard. The 49ers lost linebacker Patrick Willis to a toe injury as well as defensive back Jimmie Ward (quad) and offensive guard Mike Iupati (concussion) during the matchup.
News and Notes
2 of 5San Francisco has reeled off three victories in a row, largely putting to rest the worries that accompanied the team when it lost back-to-back games in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively.
Now, the 49ers will have to take on a Super Bowl favorite on the road facing a short week. Combine this challenge with the plethora of injuries suffered by the 49ers, and one might understand why they are listed as the underdogs entering this prime-time contest.
With a short week ahead of them, how will Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers prepare for what promises to be an exciting matchup?
Colin Kaepernick's Big Night
With St. Louis doing everything in its power to stop the run, the offense was left to Colin Kaepernick to make plays via the air.
This proved to be an easy challenge for the 49ers signal caller.
Kaepernick finished the night with 343 passing yards and three touchdowns against zero interceptions, giving him a quarterback rating of 123.9 during the game.
"#49ers QB @Kaepernick7 is 4-0 with 9 TDs on MNF. "Still got more to be better at." READ: http://t.co/6nK57zX5nj pic.twitter.com/k86gVZkCeQ
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 14, 2014"
What made his performance even more special was how effective Kaepernick was moving outside of the pocket. He also showed the ability to move through his progressions and deliver touch passes—elements of which he has previously been criticized for.
He'll need those attributes if the 49ers hope to best the Broncos' top-ranked defense in yards allowed.
Resurgent Pass Rush
Before Week 6, San Francisco's defense had totaled a mere five sacks on the season—three of which had come from veteran defensive end Justin Smith.
The 49ers doubled that total against the Rams on Monday Night Football.
Linebackers Ahmad Brooks and Dan Skuta notched two sacks apiece, while free-agent acquisition Antoine Bethea continued his strong 49ers campaign with a sack of his own.
Rookie linebacker Aaron Lynch has also inserted himself into the discussion after having taken over for second-year pro Corey Lemonier on pass-rushing downs.
"Aaron Lynch in the first 3 weeks: 36 pass rush attempts, 2 QB pressures & 1 BP. Lynch in the last 3 weeks: 77 attempts, 13 pressures & 1 BP.
— #49ers Stats (@49ers_Stats) October 14, 2014"
This unit will face an even tougher challenge against Peyton Manning, who has been sacked just six times on the season.
Few quarterbacks get the ball out quicker than Manning, so pressure will again be a key factor for San Francisco's defense in Week 7.
Vernon Davis' Slow Return
No. 1 tight end Vernon Davis missed Week 5 with a back injury. He was able to take the field on Monday, but the veteran did not look like himself early on.
Davis dropped two catchable passes early in the contest before finishing the night with three receptions on six targets for 30 yards, per Larry Hartstein of CBS Sports.
"Vernon Davis' second drop. He also has a false-start penalty. Safe to say he's not close to 100 percent.
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) October 14, 2014"
Perhaps Davis' biggest gaffe came at the 7:12 mark of the fourth quarter when he and No. 2 tight end Vance McDonald collided in the end zone trying to haul in an easy touchdown pass. The ball dropped incomplete.
Davis will square off against linebacker Brandon Marshall in Week 7. Marshall has performed exceptionally well along the line—leading the team with 27 tackles—but struggles in coverage.
The Injury Bug
We'll detail the flurry of 49ers injuries in a moment, but we cannot overstate the importance of the injury setbacks suffered by San Francisco in Week 6.
Chief among these was to linebacker Patrick Willis, who left the game with a toe injury.
Willis will likely miss the Week 7 contest according to Jim Harbaugh, who stated such on the KNBR 680's Murph and Mac Show (h/t Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area). Fortunately, Harbaugh does not view the injury as a long-term issue, but Willis' presence against Denver will certainly be missed.
The 49ers also lost rookie defensive back Jimmie Ward to a quadriceps injury and offensive guard Mike Iupati to a concussion. Wide receiver Stevie Johnson also suffered a hip injury while recovering an onside kick in the fourth quarter.
Injury Report
3 of 5
Injuries
Patrick Willis, LB: Doubtful (toe)
Ian Williams, DT: Questionable (ankle)
Chris Culliver, CB: Questionable (shoulder)
Chris Cook, CB: Questionable (quadricep)
Mike Iupati, LG: Questionable (concussion)
Anthony Davis, RT: Questionable (knee/ankle)
Tramaine Brock, CB: Questionable (toe)
Tony Jerod-Eddie, DT: Questionable (shoulder)
Marcus Martin, OL: Questionable (knee)
Perrish Cox, CB: Questionable (quadricep)
Stevie Johnson, WR: Questionable (hip)
Jimmie Ward, DB: Questionable (quadricep)
Vernon Davis, TE: Probable (back)
All injury statuses courtesy of CBS Sports and Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Patrick Willis' toe injury certainly hinders San Francisco's defense moving forward. While it is a good thing that Jim Harbaugh doesn't consider it a long-term issue, keep in mind that lingering toe injuries can keep players out for an elongated period of time.
Just look at cornerback Tramaine Brock, who has been absent since suffering a similar injury in Week 1.
Brock likely won't be reactivated until after the 49ers' bye in Week 8 reports Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee (h/t Larry Hartstein of CBS Sports).
In the meantime, look for rookie Chris Borland to get the start for Willis. He'll play alongside Michael Wilhoite, who is starting in place for the injured NaVorro Bowman.
"Rookie Chris Borland passed his pop quiz. The full exam -- administered by Professor Manning -- comes Sunday. #49ers http://t.co/k7Lvi4rgSZ
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) October 16, 2014"
San Francisco's injury list includes a vast majority of the 49ers' defensive backs. But it is hard to envision a scenario where Perrish Cox, Chris Cook and Chris Culliver do not play. Brock is likely out, but Ward's quadriceps injury casts some doubt.
According to Eric Branch of SFGate.com, Harbaugh was optimistic about Ward's return, but acknowledges that it might be a week-to-week issue.
Harbaugh had better feelings for Mike Iupati and Stevie Johnson. Iupati looked "really good" after the game, according to Harbaugh, but the O-lineman will have to pass the NFL's protocols regarding head injuries.
Branch also reports that Johnson felt that he would not miss a game following his hip injury.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
4 of 5The 2014 Denver Broncos do not carry the same reputation that Peyton Manning-led teams often had in years prior—a powerful offense that beats teams in spite of a lackluster defense.
We know Denver's offense is legit. But it is the team's defense that has shown tremendous prowess on the year.
The Broncos can boast of a defense that ranks No. 1 in the league in total yards allowed (1,591). The pass defense has given up 1,207 yards on the season—good for sixth in the NFL—while Denver's run-stoppers have given up the second-least amount of yards on the ground (384).
A potent offense with a more-than-stout defense?
How do you beat that?
It will all come down to these critical matchups.
Anquan Boldin vs. Chris Harris
Denver's No. 1 cornerback Aqib Talib will likely be slotted up against Michael Crabtree in Week 7. That leaves Anquan Boldin up against 25-year-old cornerback Chris Harris.
Boldin is emerging as Colin Kaepernick's top target in 2014—he leads the team with 32 receptions and 397 yards. This performance was reinforced by Boldin's accolades on Monday Night Football in Week 6.
"#49ers WR @AnquanBoldin continued his NFL-leading success on @ESPNMondayNight... READ: http://t.co/RdCKSwSQXS pic.twitter.com/9DecfC85bj
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 14, 2014"
But Harris is capable of holding his own. The 5'10", 199-pound corner leads the Broncos with eight passes defended.
Joe Staley vs. DeMarcus Ware
Left tackle Joe Staley held his own against Rams defensive end Robert Quinn last week. The job won't get any easier in Week 7.
Staley will be matched up against Broncos defensive end DeMarcus Ware. Ware has already tabbed four sacks on the season, and Denver's defense is not suffering the same sort of pass-rushing woes in comparison to St. Louis.
The Broncos have 15 sacks on the year compared to the Rams having just one.
San Francisco's offensive line will have to be at its best against Denver. This will be especially important considering Anthony Davis' injury woes and the concussion suffered by Mike Iupati.
Frank Gore vs. Denver's Run Defense
As we've stated, the Broncos can boast of a very strong run defense. So how will the 49ers implement their favorite offensive weapon?
Frank Gore struggled against the Rams in Week 6, picking up just 38 yards on 16 carries. But St. Louis sold out to stop the run—an aspect we probably won't expect Denver to emulate.
This could potentially leave Gore and Carlos Hyde with a bit more wiggle room if the O-line can help create the lanes so valuable in an effective ground game.
But it is hard to ignore the stats behind the Broncos run defense. This will be a tough challenge to overcome.
Colin Kaepernick vs. Peyton Manning
Notice a trend here?
Perhaps the best way to neutralize Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense will be to keep them off the field. San Francisco's running game will play a big role in controlling the clock, but plays will ultimately fall upon the shoulders of Colin Kaepernick.
Can he repeat the same sort of success he enjoyed in Week 6?
It's difficult to suggest that Kaepernick will repeat the same numbers against a stout Denver defense, but if he can make the necessary plays to sustain 49ers drives, good things can happen. The nature of Greg Roman's offensive play-calling will be a factor here as well—options described further in the above video.
And we cannot rule out the nature of Kaepernick's legs. Kaepernick has showcased his ability to extend plays when the pocket collapses. While Denver may employ a spy technique to limit this danger, it is reasonable to assume Kaepernick's rushing prowess will be a factor.
But at the end of the day, comparisons will again be drawn between Kaepernick and Manning.
As Manning closes in on the record for passing touchdowns, speculation will continue whether Kaepernick can come close to becoming the pocket passer Manning has so perfected over the years.
We'll let that debate continue, but it worth pointing out that a recent poll of NFL coaches revealed the majority would rather contend with Manning instead of Kaepernick.
"Report: 'Solid majority' of a dozen NFL coaches would rather face Peyton Manning than Colin Kaepernick. (VIDEO) http://t.co/q3RqlLfFyz
— Yahoo Sports Minute (@YSportsMinute) October 16, 2014"
Perrish Cox vs. Demaryius Thomas
Denver has far too many offensive weapons to suggest that just one of its receiving targets will be the primary threat.
But we should keep an eye out on cornerback Perrish Cox and how he faces off with the Broncos' No. 1 wideout, Demaryius Thomas.
Thomas leads the Broncos with 491 receiving yards on the season. Cox is tied for the lead in interceptions this season with three.
Cox's ascension has been a fun thing to watch for 49ers fans. He has proved more than adequate having taken over for Tramaine Brock since Week 1.
"Fox on @pcox16: "I know he's a very capable athlete, played very well." Cox was drafted by Josh McDaniels' coaching staff. #49ers
— Christian Gin (@Christian_Gin) October 15, 2014"
Cox will face the truest of tests on Sunday when he faces off against Thomas.
Michael Wilhoite/Antoine Bethea vs. Julius Thomas
Tight end Julius Thomas is perhaps Denver's biggest red-zone threat. He leads Broncos passing targets with nine touchdowns on the season, proving that he is more than capable of being a favorite for Manning in the red zone.
Covering him will largely fall upon the shoulders of linebacker Michael Wilhoite and safety Antoine Bethea—similar to the matchup they faced with tight end Travis Kelce in Week 5 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kelce is Alex Smith's favorite target and, like Thomas, provided a legitimate challenge for the 49ers defense.
Containing Thomas will be yet another difficult matchup for the 49ers' tandem of Wilhoite and Bethea.
49ers' X-Factor of the Week: TE Vernon Davis
With linebacker Danny Trevathan on injured reserve with a knee injury, the Broncos are forced to insert Brandon Marshall in his stead.
Marshall has done an excellent job stuffing run plays within the box. He currently leads Denver defenders with 27 tackles and 12 assists. But Marshall is a liability in coverage.
"Ugh... Trevathan out again, this time for 3-6 weeks. Luckily Brandon Marshall has been playing well, but that hurts the Broncos in coverage.
— Glen Scott (@scottga) October 13, 2014"
Here is where tight end Vernon Davis can have a huge day.
Davis had a slow start after returning from a back injury in Week 6. An added week of recovery should be to his benefit.
The 49ers will need Davis to play a huge role in the offense if they hope to enjoy the prospects of victory on Sunday night.
That matchup could very well be the critical factor in determining the game's outcome.
Prediction
5 of 5
The odds are stacked up against the 49ers in this prime-time Sunday Night Football matchup.
Taking to the road on a short week is a problem in of itself. Doing so at the mile-high confines of Sports Authority Field also presents its challenges.
Compound that with the multitude of injuries San Francisco is dealing with, and one might see why the 49ers are underdogs.
Oh, and there is Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
So how do the 49ers figure to stage an upset?
Stranger things have happened. Denver looked out of sync early on against the Jets in Week 5. Can San Francisco figure out a way to replicate this over the duration of the game? If so, the 49ers might be able to generate some chances on both sides of the ball.
Defensively, San Francisco will need to offset Manning's abilities by confusing him with different looks—no easy task.
This is what NFL Films Senior Producer Greg Cosell stated on the Murph and Mac Show on KNBR 680 on October 15.
Cosell cited that scheme would be the best way to hinder Manning and the offense. It will be up to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and a depleted defense to figure out how to best go about doing this.
Perhaps the likeliest of approaches to thwart Denver's offense will be to keep it off the field.
This means winning the time-of-possession battle, which means maintaining ball control and sustaining drives.
Part of this approach will be relying heavily on Frank Gore and the ground game. It will be a strength-versus-strength matchup, considering how well the Broncos have performed against the run this season. But if the 49ers can move the ball well enough on the ground, it will play tremendously into their favor.
Of course the 49ers will also have to move the ball carefully and effectively through the air. We have broken down how players like Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin might be critical factors in the passing game.
Can San Francisco's offensive line provide enough protection for Colin Kaepernick to find these targets?
Only time will tell.
Offensive coordinator Greg Roman will have to be at his best when dialing up plays that confuse Jack Del Rio's defense. Roman will have to get creative without being too cute; utilize his strengths without becoming too predictable.
Even so, will all this be enough?
This author hates to say it, but it is difficult to envision San Francisco coming away with a victory here. I'll admit that I hope this prediction is wrong, but look for Denver to exploit its edge in this prime-time contest.
Had this game been at Levi's Stadium—and if the 49ers were at full strength, like they hopefully will be toward the end of the season—San Francisco would have that edge.
Unfortunately, this isn't the case.
There aren't any moral victories in the NFL, but if the 49ers can match a pound-for-pound battle against one of the league's best—and on the road—the rest of the league will have to feel pretty good about San Francisco's chances even if the win/loss column does not yield a positive result.
Prediction: 49ers 17, Broncos 24
All statistics and records courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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