Cardinals vs. Giants: Biggest Questions Facing Each Team in NLCS Game 5

The San Francisco Giants have reversed the script on the St. Louis Cardinals in this year's National League Championship Series heading into Thursday's Game 5. Things are perfectly set up for the Giants to represent the senior circuit in the World Series for the third time in five years.

Two years ago, the Cardinals were leading 3-1 with a chance to close it out at home. Barry Zito shocked the world by pitching brilliantly in Game 5, sending the series back to San Francisco, where the Giants would win the last two games by a combined score of 15-1. 

Now, the Cardinals and Giants will send their aces to the mound with very different goals in mind. Adam Wainwright is trying to get the series back to St. Louis, while Madison Bumgarner looks to continue his October dominance by pitching San Francisco into the Fall Classic. 

In an already unpredictable postseason, this is an attempt to find logic and reason for what will happen in Game 5 of the NLCS. Here are the biggest questions each team must answer to be successful on Thursday night. 

Note: All stats via Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. 

Does Adam Wainwright have anything left?

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

After going through a brutal stretch of games in August with an ERA of 5.17 and 44 hits allowed in 38.1 innings, Wainwright admitted to reporters following an August 27 start against Pittsburgh that he was dealing with "dead arm" issues, via Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

He was able to alleviate any concerns about his health with a dominant September. The right-hander had a 1.38 ERA in five starts, giving the Cardinals the horse they needed at the top of their rotation for the postseason. 

In two playoff starts, though, Wainwright looks like he's fighting something again. He's gone nine innings, allowed 17 hits, eight earned runs with seven walks and four strikeouts.

After Game 1 against the Giants, Wainwright said the problems were with his delivery and not the result of arm or elbow issues, via Goold:

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Wainwright insisted after the game that his outing Saturday was “100 percent better” than his faulty start in Game 1 of the NL division series. He tied Saturday’s troubles to his delivery, which he said were unrelated to soreness or tenderness in his right elbow. Such discomfort can lead to an erosion of mechanics as the body adjusts to avoid pain or protect against further injury. Wainwright experienced that earlier this season when he had a knee injury the he pitched despite.

"

Per ESPN's Jayson Stark, Wainwright claims to have figured out what the problem was and is ready to go for Game 5:

However, Wainwright phrased it in a way that makes you think there's something going on with his arm. It may not be something serious that will require surgery, but it's enough that his control and velocity aren't up to their usual standards. 

Sometimes a pitcher is able to brush the pain away in a key spot. Curt Schilling's bloody sock in Game 6 of the 2004 American League Championship Series immediately comes to mind. 

There just isn't any evidence in Wainwright's performance to suggest he's going to figure things out, especially against a pitcher as locked in as Bumgarner is right now. 

How do you solve a problem like Madison Bumgarner?

There's no doubt that Bumgarner has been the best pitcher in the postseason. He's started three games covering 23.2 innings, allowing 14 hits and two earned runs with three walks and 23 strikeouts. 

If you need more proof of Bumgarner's dominance, Mike Oz of Yahoo Sports' Big League Stew has you covered:

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Fifteen pitchers have one quality start this postseason — defined, that's six innings with three earned runs or fewer — and they're all tied for second on the leaderboard. Bumgarner has three. Thirteen times this postseason a starter has pitched seven complete innings. Ten pitchers have done it once, Bumgarner has done it three times.

"

That's what the Cardinals are up against in trying to save their season. They didn't have an answer in Game 1, as the tall left-hander allowed just four hits in 7.2 shutout innings.

Despite all of Bumgarner's success, there is still a feeling he's underrated because, as Michael Baumann of Grantland wrote, we can't call him the best left-handed pitcher in his own division:

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He’s got a top-10 Cy Young finish and two World Series rings in the bag already, yet we can’t call him the best pitcher in the NL, or the best left-handed pitcher in the NL, or even the best left-handed pitcher in the NL West, because Clayton Kershaw exists and follows Bumgarner through each qualifier like an affable, neck-bearded poltergeist.

"

Baumann also noted that he came up at a time when the Giants still had two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum pitching well and Matt Cain was one of the best pitchers in baseball. All that has changed drastically in the last two years, as the left-hander is the only cog left from San Francisco's previous title team. 

The Cardinals had a .718 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2014, compared to .679 against righties, yet not even that translated against Bumgarner in Game 1. You can't go into a game against Bumgarner expecting a lot of runs to be scored.

About the only way the Cardinals can beat the Giants with Bumgarner on the bump is hope the mistake that cost him in Game 3 against Washington—a throwing error to third base that led to three runs in the seventh inning—happens again.

The odds of that may not seem good, but they're a lot better than expecting to hit three home runs in against Bumgarner with the way he's pitching right now.

Will Mike Matheny ever learn to use his whole roster?

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

A disturbing trend for the Cardinals dating back to last season is Mike Matheny's insistence on not using players he's put on the playoff roster. In 2013, Shelby Miller pitched one inning in Game 2 of the Division Series against Pittsburgh and never saw the mound again despite being on the roster in each round. 

You can say Miller's lack of postseason exposure didn't matter because the Cardinals went to the World Series and took Boston to six games.

This year, Matheny's neglect of the roster has expanded. Michael Wacha, who was last year's breakout star in October, hasn't been used. Oscar Taveras, who had a pinch-hit home run in the seventh inning of Game 2, has one plate appearance in two games since that moon shot (a single in Game 4). 

If Wacha is still battling shoulder issues or hasn't pitched enough for Matheny to trust in a key spot, then don't put him on the playoff roster. It's a wasted roster spot not to use the entire team at your disposal, especially when you could have used that spot to lengthen your bench for when you need a hit late in games. 

A point that Rob Neyer of Fox Sports also made in a discussion about Matheny's patience with Miller in Game 4:

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If you’re unwilling to use a pitcher in a key situation, why keep him on the roster? Sure, every so often you do need a long man, whether because you’re getting blown out early or because the game goes real long.

But how often do those things happen? Especially compared to those times when you’re in the middle of a close game and every run seems like it might determine the outcome of your entire season?

"

The other big problem the Cardinals have thanks to Matheny is the way he manages the bullpen. For instance, in the Game 3 loss, he used Randy Choate, who is only capable of getting out lefties, in the 10th inning of a tie game. 

Keep in mind Matheny hadn't used Trevor Rosenthal or Carlos Martinez at this point in the game. 

After Choate walked the No. 8 hitter, left-handed Brandon Crawford, Bruce Bochy sent right-handed Juan Perez in to pinch hit. Perez predictably singled, setting up Gregor Blanco for the sacrifice bunt that wound up ending the game due to Choate's throwing error. 

Matheny gets a lot of credit for taking the Cardinals to the NLCS in each of his three seasons as manager, yet most people don't mention he took over a team in 2012 that was coming off a World Series title and built on one of the best farm systems in baseball, which played a huge role in last year's playoff run. 

This year, while the talent hasn't always been up to par, Matheny's strategy is doing more to hurt the Cardinals in the playoffs. He has to get out of his own way, or else this will be the last game he manages in 2014. 

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