New York Jets vs New England Patriots: Breaking Down New England's Game Plan

When Rex Ryan and his New York Jets go to Gillette Stadium to face the New England Patriots, it always gets ugly. Sometimes it involves poor play. This time it may be the weather; heavy thunderstorms are forecast for the Boston area Thursday night.

With thunder complementing the booming sounds of the monstrous Jets defensive line, anything can happen. Here is how Bill Belichick and his coaching staff may attack the Jets on Sunday.

Patriots Defense vs. Jets Offense

The Jets offense isn't good. They rank 30th in the league in points, having averaged a measly 16 points per game thus far. Most of that starts with their quarterback. Nobody is questioning that Smith can make the sublime play, but he needs to improve—he has thrown seven interceptions in 2014.

Smith weighed in on a media conference call on what he thinks he'll see on Thursday night:

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They’re going to play a bunch of man-to-man coverage. They’ve got some really good corners; they’re about five deep in the defensive backfield. They’re very confident in those guys, so they’re willing to put those guys out there against the best and man them up.

Obviously, you’ve got Chandler Jones and you’ve got Vince Wilfork back, who is anchoring that defense. [Rob] Ninkovich came up with three sacks last week, so obviously he’s on a hot streak. You’ve got to be aware of all the things that they may throw at us schematically, and then also we’ve got to win matchups. Obviously, football is all about the matchups, and we’ve got to be able to win one-on-one matchups.

"

If the game were being played in good weather, man coverage might be a better option. However, with footing at a premium, the safety of playing in a zone is a nice comfort. That will also allow the Patriots to run with a heavier defense.

That extra weight will come in handy against the bruising Chris Ivory. He finishes his runs as good as any back in the NFL and will test the Patriots' tackling early and often.

Patriots Offense vs. Jets Defense

The biggest key to scoring points against the New York Jets is to get the ball past their talented front seven. To do that, you need to slow down the pass rush and stretch the field. One way that New England slowed down the Buffalo Bills' rush was an effective use of play action. Another was unleashing Brian Tyms.

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels mentioned the vertical stretch talking with media this week:

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I think that the more you can throw the ball to each area of the field and make the defense defend not only the width of the field but also the depth of it, that obviously would create more space as the game goes along or as the season goes along. Again, it comes back to reading the coverage and doing the right things on each play, and you have to be disciplined enough to do that because there are guys back there deeper than you and are taking away those plays, and definitely you want to come to another option shorter than that or intermediate, whatever it may be.

If they give an opportunity to throw the ball behind the defense then you’ve got to try to take advantage of that. That’s something that’s [on] a play-by-play basis, and you’ve got to do a good job of reading it out on every snap. 

"

Again, the weather may have something to say about what New England can do here. Tom Brady has had success in adverse weather conditions before—most notably snow—but wet footballs and pelting rain play havoc on vertical routes.

Look for some creative uses of Julian Edelman and Shane Vereen—think screen passes and jet sweeps—if the deep passing game proves too daunting. Don't look for Brandon Bolden, James White or anyone else to get much of a run game going behind the Patriots' patchwork offensive line.

Mike Groll/Associated Press

What They're Saying

Jerod Mayo's absence reverberated throughout the short week. Replacing his brain is nearly as hard as replacing his body, according to defensive coordinator Matt Patricia:

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Well, certainly when we go into a new week, we will obviously have our communication system set up and be able to do address all the pertinent information that needs to be communicated on the field by player, by position. I think it’s more when something like that happens in the game and you need to change gears then everyone else kind of needs to step up or divide up the responsibility in that particular situation.

We will obviously try to get the communication handled and with the different people out on the field that do communicate. [...]

Communication is a big key for us and something that we are trying to emphasize. Again, it’s more of just a situation in the game when a particular player that is a key communicator for you goes down that you really have to address the issues of where the communication is really coming from and who is going to step in for that particular situation.

"

Patricia put Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Vince Wilfork and Devin McCourty in a group that he expects to step up and fill the leadership and communication gap on the field. In a short week, look for the veterans to assert themselves between downs.

Tale of the Tape

Quarterback

As Geno Smith continues his descent into the abyss, Tom Brady is rising from the ashes of a 2-2 start. Look for Brady's strong play to continue with one of his patented bad-weather games.

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Verdict: Patriots

Running Backs

Shane Vereen has been average this year and Stevan Ridley is done. Chris Ivory, however, is running like a man possessed. Until James White or Brandon Bolden can provide consistent production between the tackles, the running game may struggle.

Verdict: Jets

Wide Receivers

Julian Edelman has been a consistent performer all year, while Brandon LaFell is starting to show why the Patriots signed him this offseason. After Eric Decker, no Jets receiver has distinguished himself in 2014.

Verdict: Patriots

Tight Ends

After a poor preseason, Jace Amaro is starting to warm up for New York. Jeff Cumberland has been a disaster in the run game, though. Rob Gronkowski—seemingly healthier each week—dwarfs anyone the Jets can trot out.

Verdict: Patriots

Offensive Line

Neither line has been superior this year, but New England isn't playing with anything close to a full deck with injuries to Bryan Stork, Dan Connolly and Cameron Fleming. Nick Mangold has been as advertised in 2014 and will surely give Vince Wilfork all he can ask for.

Verdict: Jets

Defensive Line

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

If there is a better defensive line in football than the Bills' monster unit, the Jets could take the cake. Damon Harrison, Quinton Coples play second fiddle to incredible duo of Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson. As well as Chandler Jones and Vince Wilfork may be playing, they are simply outmatched here.

Verdict: Jets

Linebackers

Demario Davis and David Harris are the Jamie Collins and Jerod Mayo of the New York Jets. Dont'a Hightower's presence would give the Patriots the edge if not for Mayo's injury. Watch out for Calvin Pace and Jason Babin rushing the quarterback.

Verdict: Push

Defensive Backs

This is where the Patriots will make their money. The Jets secondary breaks down if the pass rush doesn't get home. Calvin Pryor and company are stout against the run, however.

Verdict: Patriots

Special Teams

Ryan Quigley is having a fantastic year punting for the Jets. Ryan Allen has been a bit more inconsistent. Nick Folk and Stephen Gostkowski have both been money. With Matthew Slater injured and Danny Aiken far from perfect, New York gets the edge here.

Mike Groll/Associated Press

Verdict: Jets

Overall: Push 4-4-1

On paper, the Patriots and Jets are set to have another fantastic finish. However, if the Patriots can exploit the Jets secondary, things could get ugly. With weather the great equalizer, I wouldn't be surprised to see this come down to a late field-goal try.

Wednesday's Injury Report Analysis (via Patriots.com)

Out: Nate Ebner, Cameron Fleming, Stevan Ridley, Jerod Mayo

Questionable: Brandon Browner, Jamie Collins, Dan Connolly, Dominique Easley, Dont'a Hightower,  Matthew Slater, Bryan Stork

Probable: Tom Brady, Chandler Jones, Devin McCourty

With so many injuries on the offensive line, don't be surprised to see New England bring up an offensive lineman as a reserve. If Connolly or Stork can play, that would be a huge coup. 

On the Jets side of the ball, Trevor Reilly and Greg Salas have been ruled out. Dee Milliner and Brian Winters are out for the season.

Stats and figures courtesy of NFL.com.