Philadelphia 76ers 2014-15 Season Preview: Roster Breakdown, Record Prediction
Following a predictably futile 2013-14 season, the Philadelphia 76ers are primed to endure another year littered with losses and minor developmental progress, especially now that they are completely devoid of veteran playmakers.
Last October, four of the Sixers' five opening-day starters had at least three years of professional experience. This year, not one can make that claim.
That said, pockets of optimism exist in the City of Brotherly Love, where the NBA's most fascinating rebuilding project resides.
With reigning Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams seeking to evolve into a more dynamic floor general and Nerlens Noel ready to make his NBA debut following a year of exhausting rehabilitation, the Sixers' young core can finally start to develop some much-needed chemistry.
While it will rarely be pretty, this season could prove to be crucial for a team that's still searching for an identity.
Biggest Question Mark
How exactly are the Sixers going to score this season?
Last year, Philadelphia ranked last in offensive efficiency, generating 99.4 points per 100 possessions.
Despite embracing an analytic approach that resulted in 40.4 percent of the team's shots coming in the restricted area and another 25.6 percent from beyond the arc, according to NBA.com, buckets were tremendously hard to come by.
One reason why: The Sixers shot a league-worst 31.2 percent from three while playing at the league's fastest pace (99.2 possessions per 48 minutes).
So how have things changed?
Well, they haven't. At least not much.
Noel is finally healthy, but consider both Carter-Williams and Tony Wroten—the team's top two scoring holdovers from last season—posted negative offensive win shares, and there's clearly an uphill battle to be fought.
That sentiment is reinforced by the fact that Philadelphia floundered in every way possible from a shooting perspective in the half-court:
| Catch-and-Shoot | 37.6 | 29 |
| Drives | 42.2 | 24 |
| Pull-Up | 32.7 | 29 |
Simply put, the Sixers are being crafted to function as a defensive team that forces turnovers and finds ways to score in transition. Last season, Philadelphia ranked No. 4 overall in fast break points per game (17.4), according to TeamRankings.com, while forcing a league-leading 1,391 turnovers (17 per game). It's imperative that head coach Brett Brown continues stressing excellence in those areas in the months ahead.
Best Five
Considering how much turnover there's been on Philadelphia's depth chart since the February trade deadline, we'll take a speculative look at what the club's best five-man unit may look like moving forward.
As crazy as it may sound, the Sixers could possess some hidden gems on the wing.
Not only did Hollis Thompson lead all rookies by knocking down 40.1 percent of his threes last season, but rookie K.J. McDaniels possesses the raw physical tools and instincts necessary to quickly acclimate himself to Brown's run-and-gun offense.
The ACC leader in blocks last season, McDaniels and his 6'11'' wingspan should prove to be a major asset on defense as the season progresses.
| PG | Michael Carter-Williams | 1 | Tony Wroten | 2 |
| SG | K.J. McDaniels | 0 | Alexey Shved | 2 |
| SF | Hollis Thompson | 1 | Jerami Grant | 0 |
| PF | Nerlens Noel | 0 | Luc Mbah a Moute | 6 |
| C | Henry Sims | 2 | Arnett Moultrie | 2 |
And while we know Carter-Williams will hold down the fort at point guard upon returning from shoulder surgery, questions continue to linger regarding the team's frontcourt.
Noel projected as a center out of college, but his slight 228-pound frame makes playing the 5 an arduous task as this stage in his career.
However, don't assume Noel will be playing power forward for long. As Brown told reporters, according to CSNPhilly.com's Dei Lynam, it takes time for young bigs to put on the weight necessary to bang down low:
"He is just young, and it is hard to hold it. He has done his work. We have paid attention. I can't fault anybody. That is his DNA. That is Noel's build.
I get a little comfort when I look at (Pelicans center) Anthony Davis. I am friendly with Monty Williams, so I have been able to learn about his evolution and the things they did with Anthony on the side and how he just naturally got older. He was 212 pounds during stages of his rookie year and now he has put on 30 pounds. Davis is a stud.
"
And while Sims is hardly the rim protector or low-post presence Joel Embiid figures to be, he did post an offensive rating of 116 last season, good for No. 2 overall on a Sixers team that dished out minutes to 23 players.
That said, the frontcourt situation will remain muddled until Embiid returns from a navicular fracture in his right foot.
Youth Movement
The Sixers rebuild can still be described as a jumbled mess, but if last season was any indication, there's plenty of room for growth in Brown's program.
After watching Carter-Williams stuff stat sheets on a nightly basis, Noel should be salivating at a chance to be considered the franchise's rookie du jour.
By now, you're likely familiar with Noel's strengths. He primarily operates as a human pogo stick capable of disrupting opponents' close-range attempts and entry passes thanks to his otherworldly quickness and leaping ability.
But what shouldn't be ignored is the impact Noel can make on the other end of the floor after being labeled an offensive liability during his time at Kentucky.
Here's Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman on one of the visible adjustments Noel has made to his game since being drafted:
"We've also seen Noel attempt to take more advantage of his first step. And though he's always been quicker than the guys defending him, his lack of ball skills has held him back from converting off drives.
That hasn't been entirely the case early on. Noel has looked more under control and more decisive when attacking his man and the rim. And he's getting off better looks at the end of his takes, whether they're resulting in finger rolls or trips to the line.
"
You can also take it from Brown, who recently discussed the myriad ways in which Noel can impact the game:
Plenty of focus will be thrust on Carter-Williams and his quest to improve as a shooter during Year 2, but Noel's adaptation to the pro game will be under the microscope plenty, particularly after Philadelphia started tearing things down the moment general manager Sam Hinkie acquired Noel as the centerpiece of the Jrue Holiday trade.
Proponents of the Sixers rebuild will rightfully seek validation in the form of Noel's incremental developmental achievements, but it's crucial to remember growing pains (and significant ones at that) are an unavoidable part of the process.
Team Award Predictions
Best offensive weapon: Michael Carter-Williams
The field of worthy candidates is admittedly slim, but it's impossible to pick against the reigning Rookie of the Year.
Even if Carter-Williams' per-game averages hold steady or dip slightly, he can still make considerable strides as a scorer. Last season, Carter-Williams shot an underwhelming 40.5 percent from the field and 26.4 percent from three while converting a meager 37.7 percent of his drives, according to SportVU player tracking data provided to NBA.com.
With Wroten the team's only other capable off-the-dribble creator, the Sixers will need to lean heavily on Carter-Williams as a jump shooter and penetrator.
Best defensive stopper: K.J. McDaniels
He's yet to make a regular-season start, but McDaniels easily possesses the most defensive potential among Philadelphia's pedestrian group of wings.
A ferocious defender, McDaniels should be an instant-impact contributor despite his offensive limitations, according to DraftExpress' Mike Schmitz:
"His size, length, and tremendous athleticism allows him to guard up to four positions at the college level, and give him the potential to emerge as a lockdown defender in the NBA. He's a huge playmaker already, putting up gaudy numbers as a rebounder, shot-blocker and ball-thief, even if he still has room to improve here, particularly with his ability to defend off the ball and stay consistent with his effort.
"
After the Sixers allowed opponents to shoot 37 percent from three last season (No. 25 overall), Brown will be thrilled to bestow playing time upon a second-round pick who's hungry to earn a raise after agreeing to terms on a non-guaranteed deal.
Biggest surprise: Hollis Thompson
In order to lift themselves out of murky efficiency waters, the Sixers will need a few unsung heroes to step up from beyond the arc.
After Sims and Thaddeus Young were the only Sixers to rank in the top 100 in points scored per half-court touch last season, according to NBA.com, it's clear there's no reliable source of offense who can help alleviate stress each time down the floor.
However, Thompson may be able to provide some relief.
As we saw throughout last season, Thompson has the sweet stroke necessary to lock down a starting job at the 3, exemplified by the following shot chart from Nylon Calculus:
True on 41.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes last season according to SportVU, Thompson can help alleviate the heavy offensive burden on Carter-Williams.
Most likely to entertain without playing: Joel Embiid's Twitter
Given the state of the Sixers' roster, optimism is largely limited to silver linings.
Exhibit A:
Exhibit B:
When the Dust Settles...
Conference Rank: 15th
Win-Loss Prediction: 16-66
For the second year in a row, Philadelphia is predicted to finish with the worst record in the Eastern Conference.
A season removed from winning 19 games with a few established veterans in Young, Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes, it would be an upset if the Sixers bested Odds Shark's over/under projection of 15.5 wins, much less improved on last season's total.
However, here are some historical figures to keep handy: Since the franchise moved to Philadelphia in 1963, the Sixers have recorded fewer than 20 wins three times (1972-73, 1995-96, 2013-14) and have never done so in consecutive seasons.
All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.
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