Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals: Keys for Each Team to Win ALCS Game 4
The Kansas City Royals are one win away from the World Series.
The team is still undefeated this postseason, earning seven consecutive wins en route to a 3-0 lead in the American League Championship Series. In fact, its last loss in the playoffs was Game 4 of the 1985 World Series.
With their backs against the wall, the Baltimore Orioles will turn to Miguel Gonzalez to save their season. He was 10-9 with a 3.23 ERA during the regular season, though you can throw those numbers out the window. This is the biggest start of his life.
Kansas City will counter with left-hander Jason Vargas. He was 11-10 with a 3.71 ERA in the regular season.
Looking to win the American League pennant at home, the Royals must stay composed during the biggest game of each player's career. That's the key for the Royals.
The key for Baltimore is simple—win. But how will they get there?
The following slides contain the keys to the game for both squads.
Royals: Pitch Carefully to Nelson Cruz
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Nelson Cruz owns Jason Vargas.
The soft-tossing lefty has had little success against the right-handed slugger, as Cruz is 10-for-30 with four homers against him in his career. He also has seven walks and eight RBI.
If the Royals are going to sweep the Orioles, then they absolutely cannot let Cruz beat them. He can single-handedly change the outcome of a game given his power.
Cruz will tell you differently, though. He told Kevin Richardson of The Baltimore Sun that no one player on the Orioles is more important than another: "You can't never rely on one particular guy to win. It has to be the whole team together."
With nobody on, expect Vargas to attack the strike zone. With even one runner on base, look for Vargas to pick the corners and avoid the middle of the zone at all costs.
Of course, Cruz isn't just a power threat. He's an overall hitter, evidenced by his .271 batting average this year. This is why he's so dangerous.
Orioles: Keep Jarrod Dyson off the Bases
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It really goes without saying that Jarrod Dyson is a threat on the bases. His speed is second only to Terrance Gore on the team, but that's in no way an insult.
Dyson isn't exactly the most polished hitter, as he owns a career average of .256. That hasn't stopped him from dominating Miguel Gonzalez, however.
In his lifetime against the Orioles right-hander, Dyson is 5-for-6. That comes out to .833.
It's definitely a small sample size, but there's no denying that Dyson sees the ball pretty well coming out of Gonzalez's hand. That could also be an added benefit on the bases, as his familiarity with him could provide the edge necessary to get good jumps.
Look for Nori Aoki to take a seat in the beginning of Game 4 in order to let Dyson wreak havoc on Gonzalez. It will be interesting to see what happens when Gonzalez leaves the game, though.
Royals: Throw First-Pitch Strikes
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Down 3-0, the Orioles are going to be very aggressive in Game 4 of the series. That means getting ahead in counts is paramount.
If Jason Vargas falls behind against the Orioles, then they'll put runs on the board, especially in a win-or-go-home situation. Look for Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz and Steve Pearce to capitalize on cookies down the middle in favorable counts.
That's why Vargas needs to work the corners and pick up strikes on the paint. This will allow him to work ahead in the count and force the hitters to hit his pitch.
Pitching ahead in the count also sets up Vargas' nasty changeup. While Vargas is a mid-tier pitcher in the bigs, his changeup is truly elite. If he can pitch in 0-2 and 1-2 counts, Vargas will be successful.
Of course, all he needs to do is give Kansas City five innings or so and turn it over to the bullpen. The Royals can wrap this up in four games, giving their relievers plenty of time to rest before the World Series.
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Orioles: Get Length from Miguel Gonzalez
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Chris Tillman went just 4.1 innings in Game 1. Bud Norris also went 4.1 in Game 2. Wei-Yin Chen pitched 5.1 innings in Game 3, marking the longest start for the Orioles in the ALCS.
That's a big reason why the team is down 3-0 in the series.
It'll be up to Miguel Gonzalez on Wednesday to give this team some length. Then again, manager Buck Showalter will likely have all hands on deck to avoid elimination—meaning five solid innings from Gonzalez might be enough for Showalter to turn it over to the bullpen.
At the very least, Gonzalez cannot be pulled from Wednesday's game due to ineffectiveness. Even if it's only five innings of one- or two-run ball, Gonzalez just needs to get the outs Showalter asks him to get.
Should the 30-year-old get pulled in the fourth or fifth inning, Baltimore's chances of winning are bleak.
Both Teams: Hit with RISP
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The Royals need to slam the door. The Orioles need to deflate K.C. and regain some momentum.
The best way to accomplish either of those tasks is to plate some runs. But not just one run here and there. Both teams need to throw some crooked numbers up on the scoreboard.
These teams need to get runners in when they are in scoring position. Many would assume that the Royals do that well considering how often manager Ned Yost calls for stolen bases and sacrifice bunts. They'd probably be quick to dismiss the Orioles, as their reliance on the long ball can be detrimental to their offense when the ball isn't leaving the yard.
Those people would be wrong, at least when it comes to this series. The Orioles are hitting .360 (9-for-25) with runners in scoring position through three games, whereas the Royals are hitting .286 (6-for-21).
So why are the Royals ahead in this series?
The timeliness of getting these runners home cannot be overlooked, and neither can the situations in which there are multiple runners in scoring position and the pressure is entirely on the pitcher.
Both teams can make a statement with a big offensive performance in Game 4. Of course, it would mean a whole lot more for the Orioles.
Follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter: @KennyDeJohn_BR
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