The 3 Biggest X-Factors for Florida State vs. Notre Dame

There are three X-factors at play Saturday night that will go a long way toward determining whether or not No. 2 Florida State knocks off No. 5 Notre Dame at Doak Campbell Stadium—and yes, one of them is most certainly a news-generating quarterback.

1. Jameis Winston

FSU’s embattled quarterback is the ultimate X-factor in the premier matchup of Saturday’s slate of college football games. Winston has been expected to play against the Fighting Irish despite an impending disciplinary hearing, but news broke Monday that the reigning Heisman Trophy winner has been linked to an autograph authentication company.

Star Georgia running back Todd Gurley has already been suspended indefinitely for his link to the same company, so while Winston’s status for Saturday’s game remains the same as of Oct. 14, a lot could change in the next several days before FSU hosts Notre Dame.

Should Winston ultimately not be permitted to play against the Fighting Irish, the betting line would drastically shift. The Seminoles are currently 13.5-point favorites, according to Odds Shark.

Without Winston, the 'Noles’ quarterback situation would be a major issue.

Backup Sean Maguire, who started in place of a suspended Winston and beat Clemson earlier this season, missed last weekend’s game at Syracuse with a hand injury. John Franklin III stepped into the No. 2 role last week, but the redshirt freshman has never taken a college snap under center and has been cross-training at wide receiver.

Maguire’s status is not yet known.

Should Winston remain eligible, FSU would maintain its status as the favorite as the program looks for its 23rd consecutive victory. Despite the swirling off-field distractions, Winston was undeterred against the Orange last weekend, finishing with 317 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 92.0 quarterback rating.

It would be hard to bet against Florida State with Winston under center, even if Notre Dame represents the team’s biggest challenge to date. Should FSU be without its leader, the nation’s longest winning streak could very well come to a screeching halt.

2. Defending a Playmaking Quarterback

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Florida State showed some significant vulnerability already this season to playmaking quarterbacks as it struggled to slow Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and then North Carolina State’s Jacoby Brissett.

Watson threw for 266 yards in an overtime loss, and Brissett finished with 359 yards and three touchdowns in the Wolfpack’s near upset of FSU.

Notre Dame's more established Everett Golson could be even more dangerous.

“No matter what you do—whether you’re pass pro or running—they can always outnumber you on the run,” FSU coach Jimbo Fisher said at his Monday press conference. “The defense can … the only way to even those numbers up is to run the quarterback so you have a blocker for everybody, and you can handle that. That’s the only way you can even numbers up.  

“Running quarterbacks are always a problem and [Golson] is a good player.”

Golson has 1,683 passing yards with 16 touchdowns this season and is second on the team with 209 yards rushing. He is turnover-prone, but the Notre Dame quarterback has to be bottled up if the Seminoles defense wants to have success.

3. The Return of Matthew Thomas?

According to a report this week from Warchant.com, former 5-star prospect Matthew Thomas’ suspension has been lifted and he could be eligible to play for the first time this season Saturday against Notre Dame.

Fisher wasn’t able to confirm Thomas’ status, though, when asked Monday afternoon.

“I haven’t got official word, but I am anticipating that,” Fisher said. “I don’t know. That has to come from them, but we think he will be.”

Should his ban be lifted, the talented linebacker would immediately add a punch to FSU’s defense. Thomas has the ability to play a traditional linebacker role or be used as a rush end. With no proven pass-rusher on the roster opposite star Mario Edwards, Jr., Thomas’ athleticism off the edge could be a difference-maker against Notre Dame’s Golson-led offense. 

Thomas played in four games as a true freshman last year and posted four total tackles, two tackles for loss and one sack. He was granted a medical redshirt after sustaining a season-ending shoulder injury early in FSU’s 2013 campaign.

Brandon Mellor is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of Seminoles.com. All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.

Follow @BrandonMellor on Twitter.