Baylor Bears vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Odds, Analysis and Prediction

Baylor and West Virginia have played two crazy games since the teams became Big 12 rivals a couple of years ago, combining to score an amazing 248 points in two contests. As one might expect, both games flew over their totals. How many points might the Bears and the Mountaineers put up when they meet Saturday afternoon in Morgantown?

Point spread: The Bears opened as 9.5-point favorites at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick via Odds Shark computer: 53.8-31.6 Bears

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

The Bears are 6-0 straight up, 4-1-1 against the spread and 3-0 in Big 12 play after rallying to beat TCU last week 61-58. Baylor allowed the Frogs to score touchdowns on both a kickoff return and an interception return and trailed 58-37 with 12 minutes to go. Then, the Bears scored 24 straight points, the last three on a short field goal on the last play of the game to steal the victory.

The Bears racked up 782 yards of offense on what is supposed to be a pretty good TCU defense. Quarterback Bryce Petty, who struggled in the previous game against Texas, threw for 510 yards and six touchdowns. For the season, Baylor still leads the nation in both total offense and scoring and ranks 10th in total defense.

Why the West Virginia Mountaineers can cover the spread

The Mountaineers are 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, and 2-1 in the Big 12 after coming from behind to beat Texas Tech last week 37-34. West Virginia trailed the Red Raiders 34-20 with seven minutes to go but tied the score with two minutes left and then won it on Josh Lambert's 55-yard field goal at the buzzer.

Led by senior quarterback Clint Trickett, who has completed 69 percent of his passes this year with 12 touchdown throws against four interceptions, the Mountaineers rank eighth in the country in total offense, averaging 552 yards per game. And the West Virginia defense, which allowed 455 yards and 33 points per game last year, is playing 60 yards and six points per game better so far this season.

Smart pick

Baylor is moving up in the rankings with its eyes on the prize of not just a repeat Big 12 championship but also a berth in this season's College Football Playoff. And getting a good team on the road at a discounted spread is often a good bet. So the smart money in this spot resides with the Bears, minus the points.

Betting trends

• Baylor is 7-1 SU in its last eight games on the road.
• West Virginia is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.