Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Texas A&M Aggies Complete Game Preview

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Some would call it a win. Many Alabama fans are treating it like a loss.

The Crimson Tide’s 14-13 win over Arkansas last week isn’t exactly going to inspire many to put a down payment on College Football Playoff tickets, but a win is a win. And in a year where nothing is certain in college football that’s all you can ask for.

Alabama’s next test is Texas A&M, a team that has produced two great games against Alabama in its two years in the SEC.

This time the Aggies are without Johnny Manziel, but quarterback Kenny Hill has been just as prolific throwing the football.

Can Texas A&M pull off the upset in Bryant-Denny Stadium?

Here’s everything you need to know:

Date: Saturday, October 18

Time: 2:30 p.m. CT

Place: Bryant-Denny Stadium

TV: CBS

Radio: Crimson Tide Sports Network, Texas A&M Radio Network

Spread: Alabama by 12 to 12.5, according to OddsShark.com.

Alabama Keys to Victory

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Run the Ball

Alabama is averaging its lowest yards-per-carry total since 2008, coach Nick Saban’s second year in Tuscaloosa. In last season’s 49-42 shootout, Alabama rushed for 234 yards, and that was a big reason the Crimson Tide were able to get back in the game, take the lead and hold it.

This season, Alabama has only eclipsed that total on the ground twice, against West Virginia and Southern Miss, and has only gone for 234 combined in its last two games.

Stop the Pass

It’s what Texas A&M does best, and it’s what Alabama has struggled with at times this season. Last year, the Aggies threw for 464 yards, lighting up the Crimson Tide secondary. They’re averaging 396.0 passing yards per game this year and will undoubtedly be the focal point of A&M’s attack this week.

Texas A&M Keys to Victory

USA TODAY Sports

Three-and-Outs on Defense

Alabama will try to control the ball on offense to keep the Texas A&M offense out of a rhythm. This is where A&M’s defense can help its offense. Getting off the field quickly will put its high-scoring offense right back out there. It can be done against Alabama. The Crimson Tide ran six offensive plays in the first quarter—two three-and-outs—and in the second half only had one drive where they gained a first down.

Big Plays

Alabama’s defense has been susceptible to big passing plays at times this season (see: West Virginia and the second half of Ole Miss). And if there’s an SEC offense built to hit big plays in the passing game it’s the Aggies. They hit several last year in College Station that were big momentum swings in a tight game. They’ll need to do the same this year to have a chance.

Alabama Players to Watch

Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press

Bradley Bozeman and Leon Brown/Alphonse Taylor

Bozeman has been filling in for injured center Ryan Kelly. Brown and Taylor have been rotating at right guard. Alabama’s offensive line has struggled to get a consistent push, especially in the run game and especially from those two spots.

Blake Sims

Alabama’s quarterback threw for just 161 yards on Saturday, his lowest output of the season, and while he tossed two touchdowns, he had two more passes that could have been intercepted. How he bounces back will be something to keep an eye on.

Texas A&M Players to Watch

Bob Levey/Associated Press

Kenny Hill

Hill is actually averaging more passing yards per game through seven games than Manziel did during either of his two years in College Station. Manziel has him beat though by a long shot running the ball. Hill will need to have the same success Manziel has had against Alabama to pull the upset.

Myles Garrett

Texas A&M’s freshman defensive end has his career off to a scorching start. Garrett has recorded seven sacks, already just one shy of Jadeveon Clowney’s SEC freshman record. Alabama’s tackles will have their hands full with Garrett trying to keep Blake Sims’ jersey clean.

What They're Saying

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Alabama

Saban on how Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin’s offense has evolved over the years:

"

Well I think it’s changed a little bit, not systematically but relative to the players that they have, especially who plays quarterback. They’ve always been a spread out, like to be four open, four wideouts as much as they can, spread you out, make the defense declare itself, do the no-huddle thing to try to put themselves in the most advantageous play—pass, whatever, relative to the coverage. QB throws the ball to the right guy based on how the defense declares itself.

"

Jonathan Allen on Manziel vs. Hill:

"

I feel like they have pretty similar playing styles. Great arm, can run, very elusive, hard to bring down, have to contain them. So we feel they have a pretty similar playing style.

"

Texas A&M

The Houston Chronicle’s Brent Zwerneman writes that Texas A&M has fallen a long way:

"

The Aggies are bursting at the seams with swagger, glitter and glamour, but what they're lacking three years into the Kevin Sumlin Swagxperiment is the substance needed to truly compete in the Southeastern Conference West Division.”

"

Sumlin on what to do going forward, per TexAgs.com:

"

You are always analyzing where you are. When things are going good you're analyzing and when things are going bad. As a team you're always looking to get better and fix problems. As a coach you have to be honest with your schemes and with yourself and really that was a message to players and coaches. You have to be able to look yourself in the mirror and be honest with deficiencies that have been presented and then either be able to fix those during the week or adjust during the week. There were a number of times during the day when we just got whipped and it’s hard to fix that.

"

Prediction

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Alabama 31, Texas A&M 24

This has probably been the hardest game to predict of any on Alabama’s schedule. A&M’s strength is in its pass game, which would seem to play to the Crimson Tide’s defensive weakness. But the Aggies haven’t exactly been menacing on defense either. So, home-field advantage wins out here. Alabama comes out motivated after a stagnant showing at Arkansas, and Texas A&M’s downward slide continues.

Marc Torrence is the Alabama lead writer for Bleacher Report. All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats come from cfbstats.

Follow on Twitter @marctorrence.