Ultimate Guide to Notre Dame vs. Florida State

For the third consecutive weekend, college football's biggest game will feature a pair of undefeated teams, this time pitting 6-0 Notre Dame against 6-0 Florida State in Tallahassee.

But it's more than just the teams' records that are unsustainable. Projected starting quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Everett Golson have combined to win all 34 of their regular-season starts at the college level. Counting conference and national championship games—the latter of which both QBs played in as redshirt freshmen—their full combined record is 36-1.

Florida State is ranked No. 2 in the Associated Press Poll, and Notre Dame is ranked No. 5. The Irish have not played a regular-season game between top-five-ranked teams since losing 29-16 against Ohio State in 1996, per Mike Monaco of Bleacher Report.

All of which is to say, well, that this game might be one of the best of the season. It is without dispute the biggest nonconference game remaining on the schedule, and it might be the biggest overall.

Even though it will not affect either team's conference standing, it will go a long way toward determining which four teams make the inaugural College Football Playoff.

Here is everything you need to now.

College Football Playoff Implications

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For Florida State

Florida State is No. 2 in the AP Poll and one of five unbeaten teams remaining from the power-five conferences*. It is already in good shape to make the playoff, and even though beating Notre Dame might not restore it to No. 1 in the polls—a spot it inhabited until this week—it would give Florida State a great shot at making the CFP.

Bleacher Report's Bob Ferrante explored this in further depth:

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Notre Dame is by far the toughest game FSU will play in the second half of the season. Games against Louisville, Virginia, Miami, Boston College and Florida await, but none of the teams are ranked.

A win over Notre Dame puts FSU in the driver's seat for the final five games. FSU is firmly in control of the Atlantic Division with its win over Clemson and would then play in the ACC championship game.

There's plenty of football left, but, barring injury, FSU appears poised to secure a spot in the four-team playoff if the Seminoles knock off Notre Dame.

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The CFP selection committee will convene for the first time in two weeks and put out their first rankings of the season Oct. 28.

For Notre Dame

Like Florida State, Notre Dame is undefeated. Unlike Florida State, it is ranked behind all four of the other power-five undefeateds: Mississippi State, FSU, Ole Miss and Baylor. The only undefeated team in the country ranked lower than Notre Dame is Marshall.

This is not overly concerning, but it does speak to a national stigma against the Irish, whom many will tell you "ain't played nobody" yet this season. Their most impressive opponent, Stanford, already has two losses, and Notre Dame needed a desperation fourth-down touchdown to beat the Cardinal on its home field in Week 6. Its most impressive performance came against Michigan, against whom it has not been hard for teams to look impressive.

The Florida State game, however, begins Notre Dame's back-loaded schedule with an opponent that fans, voters and selection committee members respect. Beating the Seminoles would validate Notre Dame's fast start to the season and give it a quality road victory that few if any teams could stack up against.

If Notre Dame loses by a big margin in Tallahassee, finishing the year 11-1 might not be enough to get into the playoff. If it wins or loses a nail-biter, it will have a lot more slack in tough games against Navy, Arizona State, Louisville and USC.

*including Notre Dame, an FBS Independent

Will Jameis Winston Play?

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On Monday, Darren Rovell and Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com reported that "[Florida State's] athletic compliance department has begun to look into how so many Winston autographs were authenticated by a single company."

Specifically, it is investigating whether he committed an NCAA violation by selling his signature (i.e., profiting off his likeness).

Even before that, though, Winston's status for the game had been called into question. The university informed Winston before last week's Syracuse game that he would be facing a student disciplinary hearing that stemmed from last year's sexual assault investigation (that Winston was never charged in), per Schlabach.

All of which led Greg Couch of Bleacher Report to implore that Florida State end the Winston circus by suspending him:

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On Saturday, Florida State, the defending national champ, will play undefeated Notre Dame. The winner becomes a strong favorite to get into the College Football Playoff. The loser does not. But Florida State needs to make a real statement first and do one thing:

Suspend Jameis Winston. Now.

It's the only thing to do for Florida State; it must take a moral stand for football and society. And if Florida State lets Winston play? Then that makes a statement, too—a dangerous one. In fact, Florida State already did the wrong thing in allowing Winston to play this past Saturday against Syracuse.

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Michael McCann of SI.com took it one step further, suggesting that Winston's most prudent legal recourse might be dropping out of school altogether. And all of this came before news broke about the compliance department's investigation into whether Winston received money for signing autographs.

Winston already missed the Clemson game after yelling sexually charged obscenities on campus. Backup Sean Maguire steered FSU to a win, but it wasn't pretty. The Seminoles trailed until Rashad Greene caught a late 74-yard touchdown pass and needed overtime to eke out the win, 23-17. If not for a botched snap when Clemson was on the FSU goal line in the third quarter, the Seminoles likely would have lost.

When asked about his level of concern regarding Winston's playing status, head coach Jimbo Fisher responded, "None. I know the facts of the case. The facts haven't changed the case. There's nothing new that is out there. We have been through this."

But Fisher's statement—like Couch and McCann's articles—came before the news of the compliance department's investigation. Georgia running back Todd Gurley missed last week's game against Missouri and is suspended indefinitely as he undergoes a similar investigation. That parallel will not be lost on anybody.

We'll keep you updated as more information emerges.

Can Everett Golson Take Care of the Football?

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Golson played himself into the crux of the Heisman conversation with huge games against Rice and Michigan at the start of the year.

He hasn't done enough to play himself out of that crux, especially since Notre Dame keeps winning, but it's difficult to ignore the rate at which he has turned the ball over the past three weeks:

• First Three Games: 0 interceptions, 0 fumbles, 0 fumbles lost
• Next Three Games: 4 interceptions, 6 fumbles, 5 fumbles lost

Golson committed four turnovers last week against a pillow-soft North Carolina defense that allowed East Carolina to score 70 points in Week 4. His carelessness was almost enough to cost Notre Dame a game in which it dominated. Bleacher Report's Keith Arnold gave a frank assessment, saying Golson did not look ready for FSU:

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If next Saturday night's main event is the heavyweight title fight the Irish have been waiting for, they nearly KO'd themselves following the ring girl up the stairs. And after leading Notre Dame to three impressive wins by playing near-flawless football, Golson heads to Tallahassee a quarterback in crisis. 

After producing touchdowns at an amazing rate, the engine of the Notre Dame offense is now piling up turnovers at an equally troubling pace. On Saturday afternoon, the Irish scored 50 points for the first time since the season-opening game of 2012 but seemed to do so in spite of its quarterback, not because of him.

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Golson makes plays that few if any quarterbacks in college football can make. He is elusive in the pocket and has one of the strongest arms in the country. After missing last season with a university-imposed academic suspension, he has come back with improved deep accuracy and command. He is talented enough to give Notre Dame a chance against anyone, including the defending national champions.

In recent weeks, however, it seems Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace has transferred the "Good [first name], Bad [first name]" virus to Golson, whose Jekyll-and-Hyde tendencies will not be given a pass in Tallahassee. If the Irish win this game, it will be because their Heisman candidate plays like a Heisman candidate.

If he doesn't, they don't stand a chance.

True Sophomores Anchoring Both Defenses

USA Today Sports (left) / Michael Conroy, Associated Press (right)

Winston and Golson are the leading men, the names you know the best and the faces you will see on most (if not all) of the promotional matter. But on the other side of the ball, each team's defense is anchored by a 5-star true sophomore/potential All-American.

Florida State DB Jalen Ramsey

For Florida State, that player is defensive back Jalen Ramsey, the No. 15 overall recruit in the 2013 class. He began his career at cornerback last season, becoming the first Florida State true freshman to start in that position in Week 1 since Deion Sanders in 1985.

After only three games, injuries forced Ramsey to move from cornerback to safety, where he continued to excel for the eventual national champions. This year, he has inherited the Star role from All-American LaMarcus Joyner and is tied for the team lead with five tackles for loss and ranks third with 45 total tackles.

Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith

Notre Dame's defense is led by outside linebacker Jaylon Smith, the No. 2 overall recruit in the 2013 class. For reasons that defy explanation, the players who sandwiched him in those rankings—Ole Miss defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche and Florida cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III—have gotten much more national press than Smith has this past season-and-a-half.

Some would argue "SEC bias," although the fact that Notre Dame has not played a huge national game since Smith arrived on campus seems like a much more plausible reason. Either way, he has been every bit as good as his SEC counterparts.

Smith leads Notre Dame with 49 total tackles and 6.5 tackles for loss and is tied for the team lead with two sacks. He played his best game of the year against the Irish's best opponent, logging 14.5 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss in the 17-14 win over Stanford. For his efforts, he was named the Lott IMPACT Player of the Week for the second time this season, the first having come after the Michigan game.

Keep a close eye on Smith and Ramsey on Saturday. I have a Sessler that one of them will come up with a key turnover.

Florida State Offensive X-Factor

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OG Tre' Jackson

Tre' Jackson was an All-ACC first-teamer last season and showed up on the first team of most Preseason All-America lists.

He has lived up to that billing on certain occasions this season, but his performance has varied from week to week, and the Florida State ground game has followed suit. Jackson is the team's best run blocker, and he deserves the credit he gets after performances such as last week's at Syracuse. But he also deserved the blame that came with rushing for 13 yards on 27 carries against Clemson.

Notre Dame's run defense has done well against pro-style offenses such as that of Florida State. It held Michigan to 100 rushing yards on 35 carries, which was easy to throw away at the time because of the wretched state of Michigan's offensive line. But when the Irish held Stanford to 47 yards on 32 carries in Week 6, it became much harder to cast their defense off as a fluke.

It's not a fluke.

Jackson will be paramount to establishing the ground game Saturday, and establishing the ground game will be paramount to scoring points. The biggest difference between the 2013 Florida State offense and the 2014 Florida State offense has been the state of the offensive line and the ability to gain yards running the football.

Now would be a fine time to fix that.

Notre Dame Offensive X-Factor

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RB Tarean Folston

Tarean Folston had a breakout game against North Carolina, needing only 23 touches (18 carries, five receptions) to gain 169 yards and score three touchdowns. For the season, his per-touch stats are on line with those of Greg Bryant, who will also see the ball against Florida State, but the momentum is in Folston's favor.

Florida State has a substantially better defense than that of North Carolina, but it hasn't looked exceptionally strong against the run. According to the S&P+ ratings at Football Outsiders, it has actually looked downright bad, ranking No. 81 in the country in rush defense. UNC ranks not too far behind that at No. 86.

Establishing the run will keep Notre Dame's offense on schedule and Golson out of perilous positions. The nearer the line-to-gain, the less Golson will feel like he has to do. And the less Golson feels like he has to do, the more likely he is to avoid costly turnovers.

Folston doesn't need to be a superstar, but he does need to grind out consistently positive plays. Especially now that Florida State redshirt freshman linebacker Matthew Thomas—the No. 8 overall recruit in the 2013 class—has had his suspension lifted, Notre Dame's running backs will have to play their best game of the season.

Florida State Defensive X-Factors

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DEs Mario Edwards Jr. and Lorenzo Featherston

Notre Dame's offensive line can be had. It has allowed only nine sacks this season, but that number is deflated because Golson has been so good at eluding pressure. Stanford, for example, had only two sacks of Golson but pressured him 13 times (two sacks, 11 QB hurries). Purdue sacked Golson four times and added six QB hurries.

Florida State's pass-rush, however, has been anemic so far this season. The Seminoles are averaging 3.33 pressures per game—1.33 sacks and two QB hurries. Eight of its 20 total pressures came against North Carolina State, which means it is averaging 2.5 pressures in its other five games. In the past two weeks against Wake Forest and Syracuse, it has combined for just two sacks and three QB hurries.

Mario Edwards Jr. and Lorenzo Featherston will be the keys to getting after Golson on Saturday, and doing so might be the key to stopping Notre Dame's offense. Golson, after all, has looked great when he hasn't been struggling with poor decisions and turnovers. Nothing arouses those struggles as well as an active pass-rush.

Edwards was the No. 2 overall recruit in the 2012 class but has underachieved at FSU. He has not been bad by any stretch, but his play does not stack up with similarly ranked defensive-line recruits such as Jadeveon Clowney, Robert Nkemdiche and Myles Garrett. 

Featherston is a true freshman who wasn't supposed to contribute much this season but has quickly become one of FSU's best defenders. He has only recorded one sack and one QB hurry, but he forced a key fumble against N.C. State and has more tackles for loss the past three weeks (five) than any other FSU defender all year.

Notre Dame Defensive X-Factor

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Defense: CBs Cole Luke and Cody Riggs

Last year, Florida State's passing game could beat you in any number of directions. Kenny Shaw was a menace in the slot, and Kelvin Benjamin could beat you over the top. The presence of those options allowed Rashad Greene to exploit single coverages and lead the team in receiving for the third consecutive season.

This year, however, the Seminoles have struggled to establish an outside threat beyond Greene. Fortunately for them, Greene has been up to the task of compensating, playing like an All-American through six weeks. But if a defense finds a way stop him, Florida State's passing game might be knocked off its axis.

Enter: Cole Luke and Cody Riggs.

Luke has been a pleasant surprise this season, ascending to the top of the depth chart after KeiVarae Russell was suspended (along with four other Irish players) right before the season. He has three interceptions in the past two games.

Riggs transferred from Florida this offseason and is familiar with what Florida State does offensively. He started at safety when the Gators played the Seminoles in 2013, a game in which Benjamin's size was too much to handle (nine catches for 212 yards and three touchdowns) but Shaw and Greene were kept silent.

Mike Monaco of Bleacher Report called Notre Dame's secondary one of the X-factors against Florida State:

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"Obviously [Greene is] a guy that can stretch the field vertically, and they're not afraid to throw it against anybody,” (Notre Dame head coach Brian) Kelly said. "Just a great, great weapon."

Irish cornerbacks Cody Riggs and Cole Luke must be on top of their games against Greene. Riggs, who was banged up briefly Saturday, should be ready for the Seminoles, and Luke has steadily improved through the first half of the season.

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How Luke and Riggs fare Saturday will go a long way in deciding the outcome. Is this where losing Russell finally comes back to haunt the Irish? Or can their defense continue its overachievement?  

Top 2015 NFL Draft Prospects

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QB Jameis Winston, Florida State

We'll spare you the lengthy discourse about Winston's NFL draft stock. There will be time enough for that between the moment he declares and the moment he's selected (and probably long after). For now, just know that Winston has the physical tools of a high first-round selection, but his off-field conduct has left a number of NFL executives feeling leery, per Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report.

CB P.J. Williams, Florida State

P.J. Williams stepped into the starting lineup when Ramsey was moved to safety last season and quickly became one of the best cornerbacks in America. A hamstring has slowed him down in the early part of this year, but he has still had some impressive moments on the outside, where his size (6'0"), length, instincts and willingness to play physical make him an ideal new-age cornerback.

DT Sheldon Day, Notre Dame

Sheldon Day has been a bit of an enigma, but when he's on, he's on. "[He] can be the best lineman that we've had here," head coach Brian Kelly told Sports Illustrated earlier this season, knowing full well that it would evoke comparisons with Louis Nix and Stephen Tuitt. Day had four QB hurries against Michigan in Week 2.

DT Eddie Goldman, Florida State

Eddie Goldman has not replaced Timmy Jernigan in the middle of Florida State's defense—doing so would be impossible—but the 6'4", 314-pound defensive tackle has done well to mitigate his loss. He played the best game of his career against Clemson in the Seminoles' last home night game, forcing a key fourth-quarter fumble and blowing up the Tigers' 4th-and-1 run attempt in overtime.

QB Everett Golson, Notre Dame

Golson (6'0") doesn't have the height one looks for in an NFL quarterback, but the success of smaller players such as Drew Brees and Russell Wilson has forced the League to re-evaluate its measurement standards. Despite his size, Golson has one of the strongest arms in the country, impressive mobility and great deep accuracy. Earlier this season, an NFL scout told Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com that Golson "can start in our league."

Predictions

Florida State is a heavy betting favorite, settling in at around minus-11.5 or minus-12, per Oddsshark.com. But the opening number has been bet down from minus-13.5, which means a decent amount of money has come in on the Irish to cover the spread.

Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee, however, thinks Notre Dame will do more than just keep things close, predicting it to win the game outright. "I think that defense for Notre Dame rattles Jameis Winston," he says in the video above. "The offensive line for Florida State has been playing better, but I don't trust it."

Counter Sallee, Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer thinks the Seminoles will be too much for Notre Dame to handle. He predicts that Winston will "play his way back into a very hazy and confusing Heisman picture," alluding to the salient fact that Notre Dame has yet to play a true road game at any point this season.

Personally? I skew in the direction of Kramer. Neither of these teams has been particularly impressive (both rank outside the top 12 in the Football Outsiders F/+ ratings), but Florida State has felt like an underachiever while Notre Dame has felt like an overachiever.

Florida State is getting players back at the right time, but Notre Dame's suspended stars are still missing. The Irish have relied on a ton of young players who have never played in a game this big. Some have never played in a road game period. By the time they get their nerves in order, it might be too late to come back.

Prediction: Florida State 38, Notre Dame 20