College Football Week 8 Predictions: Picking Top-25 Games Against the Spread
College football’s regular season is halfway complete, which is jarring and, yet, somehow familiar.
Each campaign moves at extraordinary speed, and we don’t realize how swiftly it goes until the schedules are empty and we’re left gazing into nothing. Thankfully, they are not. There is still so much meaningful football to be played—so much to look forward to—and it kicks into force yet again for Week 8.
While the overall slate of games may not reach Week 6 or Week 7 levels, at least on paper, there are more than enough intriguing games to satisfy your football palate.
To add further intrigue, of course, are point spreads. And our weekly tradition of picking all games featuring the AP Top 25 against the spread has no bye week. We could have used one last week—offering up an overall performance under .500 after a solid run of selections—but that’s no excuse.
Winning ways return with our Week 8 picks; at least that’s the plan.
All spreads are courtesy of Odds Shark unless noted otherwise.
No. 20 Utah at Oregon State
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The Line: Utah (-2.5)
The unranked Beavers actually opened as a slight favorite, although that quickly changed and the Utes took over that role. Now ranked No. 20 in the nation, Utah’s success is one of the quietest surprises of the 2014 season.
Having started the season at 4-1 (also 4-1 against the spread), Utah beat UCLA outright as nearly a two-touchdown underdog before enjoying a bye. Oregon State also just had its bye, although the Beavers enter having only covered twice this season. And yet, the dog could be live here.
Oregon State will play at home for the first time since September 20, and it will be in an environment that can breed strange results.
The Pick: Oregon State (+2.5)
No. 17 Arizona State vs. No. 23 Stanford
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The Line: Stanford (-3.5)
The status of Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly is still up in the air—at least at the time I’m forced to make a pick—which makes this difficult. Still, even in his absence, Mike Bercovici has played well outside of a few ugly throws against UCLA. The backup has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns in just two starts.
Stanford, meanwhile, has not been able to deliver anywhere close to the same kind of offense, particularly in the red zone. And for the season, the Cardinal have covered just once.
Although David Shaw’s defense is one of the nation’s best yet again, Arizona State has the skill position talent to push this group regardless of whether Kelly plays or not. (Translation: Those points sound lovely.)
The Pick: Arizona State (+3.5)
No. 12 TCU vs. No. 15 Oklahoma State
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The Line: TCU (-8)
Despite blowing a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter against Baylor, the oddsmakers are still mighty confident in TCU, as seen by this point spread. And although injury rumors of Trevone Boykin gained steam on Monday, TCU quickly debunked those. Boykin should play. That’s exceptional news for the Horned Frogs as they try to bounce back and stay perfect against the spread.
Oklahoma State was nearly dealt disappointment of its own last Saturday, and it nearly came courtesy of Kansas. The Jayhawks easily covered the 19.5-point spread at home, losing to the Pokes by just a touchdown.
On the road once again—and only for the second time this season—Oklahoma State could be overmatched if TCU gets off the mat. I think it does.
The Pick: TCU (-8)
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No. 11 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Kansas State
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The Line: Oklahoma (-8)
Give the Texas defense credit. It made Oklahoma look remarkably vulnerable, and for the second week in a row, quarterback Trevor Knight looked remarkably mortal. (I, for one, blame Katy Perry.)
The Sooners did not cover the 16.5-point spread against the Longhorns despite flirting with the possibility of doing so for a short while in the second half. While Oklahoma struggled, Kansas State was busy enjoying its bye. Before that, the Wildcats easily took care of Texas Tech as nearly a two-touchdown favorite.
My concern with K-State in this spot, however, is the travel involved. This will serve as only the second road game of the season for the Wildcats, and the Sooners have one of the nation’s premier home advantages.
As a result, I’m laying the points, even though I hate betting against Bill Snyder off the bye.
The Pick: Oklahoma (-8)
No. 10 Georgia at Arkansas
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The Line: Georgia (-3.5)
It has been one gut punch after the next for Arkansas, and the last two games against Texas A&M and Alabama certainly could have been won. They weren’t, however, and as a result, Bret Bielema is still searching for his first conference win as a head coach.
From a covering standpoint, Bielema has delivered. The Hogs have covered in five consecutive games, and they’ll have the opportunity to put that streak on the line at home.
The main story with Georgia, of course, is running back Todd Gurley. His status is obviously a storyline to keep an eye on, although the Bulldogs played just fine without him against Missouri. As a three-point favorite, Georgia shut out the Tigers 34-0 on the road, covering for just the second time this season.
Is this the week Bielema finally gets his first SEC win? The line would indicate Arkansas has a shot, and I believe the rushing attack takes the covering efforts one step further.
The Pick: Arkansas (+3.5)
No. 9 Oregon vs. Washington
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The Line: Oregon (-20.5)
Jake Fisher's return to the Ducks offensive line was the boost Oregon needed against UCLA. Suddenly, one of the nation’s premier offenses looks a lot like a top offense once again, albeit in a limited sample size.
The world’s brightest, fastest covering machine might be back on track. After losing against the spread in three straight, Oregon finally covered against the Bruins.
Hoping to ensure this cover streak stays at one is Washington. The Huskies dismantled Cal as only a short favorite, and they enter this matchup with only one loss on the schedule.
Playing in Eugene at night, however, will be a tall order for quarterback Cyler Miles. I don’t feel all that comfortable laying these points, but I will still do so. Oregon isn’t fixed, but it proves it’s getting closer to fully operational this week.
The Pick: Oregon (-20.5)
No. 7 Alabama at No. 21 Texas A&M
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The Line: Alabama (-11.5)
In its past eight games, Alabama has covered the spread only once. And although the remarkable streak of consecutive games favored is now over 60, Nick Saban’s team has been unable to match the incredible expectations.
The Crimson Tide squeezed past Arkansas last week 14-13 thanks mainly to a missed extra point.
Alabama’s opponent this week didn’t have the same fortune. As a slight favorite over unbeaten Ole Miss, Texas A&M lost 35-20, and really, it wasn’t even that close. In consecutive weeks, the Aggies gave up 83 combined points.
Although A&M has the offensive weapons to push the Alabama secondary, the cracks with this team are starting to show. At some point, Alabama will look the part of a Top 10 team, and there’s a good chance it might happen here.
The Pick: Alabama (-11.5)
No. 4 Baylor at West Virginia
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The Line: Baylor (-8)
After winning its first three games against the spread—and doing so in convincing fashion—West Virginia has been unable to cover the last three times out. The good news, however, is that the Mountaineers have won two of those matchups, the latest coming to Texas Tech off a 55-yard game-winning field goal.
Baylor needed some theatrics of its own to beat TCU. Down three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the Bears came back and eventually won the game, although they did so by less than the touchdown point spread.
Magnificent Morgantown will play host to this game, one that could eclipse the 100-point mark. However, as much as West Virginia has outperformed its expectations, Baylor—despite its recent struggles—still has the talent advantage. The Mountaineers are a great story, I’m just not sure they hang here.
The Pick: Baylor (-8)
No. 3 Ole Miss vs. Tennessee
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The Line: Ole Miss (-17)
It’s been a perfect season for Ole Miss on a variety of fronts. The Rebels are one of the nation’s most balanced teams, they’re 6-0, and they’re also perfect against the spread thus far. They've also won their past two games outright despite entering as an underdog.
That changes this week, as Tennessee comes to town, and it will do so with 17 points in its back pocket.
The Vols easily covered the 25-point spread against Tennessee-Chattanooga in Week 7, and now it hits the road for a slight upgrade in competition. Ultimately, Ole Miss will win, but Tennessee has enough talent defensively to make this ugly for just long enough to stay within the number.
The Pick: Tennessee (+17)
No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 5 Notre Dame
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The Line: Florida State (-11.5)
If Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston doesn’t play, the following words should be wiped from your brain.
Now that FSU is investigating whether Winston was compensated for signing autographs, there is uncertainty as to what happens next. For now, however, let’s operate under the assumption that he does suit up, because there’s no reason (yet) to assume otherwise.
Undefeated Notre Dame is headed to Tallahassee, which is significant. Although the Irish have traveled this year—playing in Texas and New Jersey—this will mark their first true road game of the year. The other stops were Notre Dame-friendly neutral sites.
The Irish squeaked by North Carolina in the ultimate sandwich game, and they are far better than that score might indicate. But Florida State—despite controversy swirling—appears to be hitting its stride.
If Winston plays—and that part’s important—I’m laying the points. If not, abort mission.
The Pick: Florida State (-11.5)
Other Top 25 Games
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No. 8 Michigan State (-14) at Indiana
The Spartans got a surprising scare out of Purdue a week ago, and perhaps it woke them up. Although Indiana has an explosive offense, Michigan State’s attack should ultimately be too much to deal with.
The Pick: Michigan State (-14)
No. 13 Ohio State (-19.5) vs. Rutgers
Rutgers might be the sneakiest one loss-team in the country, although Ohio State is flying high now that J.T. Barrett is in control. I’m not sure the Scarlet Knights have the firepower necessary to keep this game close.
The Pick: Ohio State (-19.5)
No. 19 Nebraska (-6.5) at Northwestern
Even though the Wildcats fell short at Minnesota last week, they’re still less than a touchdown underdog against the nation’s No. 19 team. Weird things happen in Evanston, and that trend could continue with a really tight game.
The Pick: Northwestern (+6.5)
No. 22 USC (-19.5) vs. Colorado
The Trojans have played two emotionally draining games in a row, and Colorado will head to California off a bye. USC certainly has the edge at most positions in this matchup, but the Buffs are so much better than they used to be.
The Pick: Colorado (+19.5)
No. 24 Clemson (-5) at Boston College
Deshaun Watson is out with an injury for Clemson, which is an absolute bummer. It also makes the Tigers incredibly vulnerable against a surprisingly capable opponent. A Boston College victory wouldn’t be all that surprising.
The Pick: Boston College (+5)
No. 25 Marshall (-21.5) at FIU
FIU—yes, that FIU—has been one of the nation’s best teams against the spread this season, covering in six out of seven games. As good as Marshall is—and it will certainly win this game—the spread feels just slightly higher than it should be.
The Pick: FIU (+21.5)
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