San Francisco 49ers: Could Austin Davis Pull an Upset for the St. Louis Rams?

Could the San Francisco 49ers lose two games to divisional opponents' starting backup quarterbacks?

They face that possibility on Monday night, when the St. Louis Rams start Austin Davis against them.  Davis came into this year as the third-string quarterback, but injuries to both Sam Bradford and Shaun Hill forced him into the starting lineup—and, truth be told, he has been pretty solid for a third-stringer.

Davis had never appeared in an NFL game prior to this season, having spent time both with the Rams and on the Miami Dolphins' practice squad.  He did, however, produce in college at Southern Miss, where he broke most of Brett Favre’s passing records.

So far, Davis has been replicating that success in his first chance at NFL action.  He’s only 1-2 as a starter, but he’s completed 67.8 percent of his passes for 1,129 yards, with six touchdowns to only three interceptions.  He’s in the top 10 in yards-per-passing attempt at 7.9 and passer rating at 96.8.  He’s looked like a competent NFL player, which is more than can be expected out of most third-string players in the NFL.

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

Davis looked the best in his first start, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  He was accurate and safe, taking deep shots only when they were open for him.  Pro Football Focus charted him as being accurate on 82.8 percent of his passes, which is extremely good for a first-time starter. 

He didn’t try to win the game by his lonesome, but he did make the right decisions to keep the team in the game, leading to a winning field goal with less than a minute left in the game.

His subsequent games were notably less efficient.  Against Dallas in Week 3, Davis threw both of his interceptions, thus far, while he only completed 59 percent of his passes against Philadelphia in Week 5.  He went over 300 yards in both of those games but don’t let the raw numbers fool you—his first start was the most impressive from a decision-making point of view.

His level of competition also will suddenly shoot upward when he takes on the 49ers Monday night.  Football Outsiders ranks the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles' pass defenses as the 28th-, 16th- and 21st-best in the league, respectively.  The 49ers, on the other hand, are the seventh-best pass defense in the league, according to those statistics.

If you don’t like advanced stats, it’s backed up by the basic numbers, as well.  Entering Week 6, Dallas, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay had combined to allow 268.4 passing yards per game.  The 49ers have only allowed 205.6 passing yards per game.  Davis’ performance has been very solid, but he’s about to face his toughest test of the season.

Don’t take that as a guarantee that Davis will relapse into an undrafted player, however.  Despite his relatively unheralded status, Davis hasn’t played like a player pressed into an emergency situation.  He’s played with a sense of confidence and poise so far, which Jim Harbaugh noted in a press conference:

"

I would think that he would be very confident. He's got a knack of throwing the ball in traffic. He can have guys hanging on him, around him, and he's able to get the ball out at the last second.

Playing with no conscious [sic] about throwing the ball down the field and deep, so we're going to have to do a good job defending the deep ball. He's got receivers that are nice, big catch radius. A group of guys that are really good.

"

It’s worth noting that, like many young quarterbacks, Davis has struggled against the blitz so far this season. 

Pro Football Focus (subscription required) has charted 46 plays where Davis was blitzed, resulting in both of his interceptions and a yards-per-attempt figure of 7.1, significantly lower than his average. 

The 49ers did finally find a pass rush last week against Kansas City, hurrying Alex Smith 10 times and hitting him twice more.  They don’t need to necessarily sack Davis to have success in this game, but if they can continue their pass-rush success, the road to victory becomes a lot smoother.

The St. Louis Rams are better than your average one-win team at this point in the season, but there’s a reason they are only 1-3.  Their passing offense has been good—considering their injury situation. However, I feel that it’s a mirage, buoyed by playing some soft pass defenses.  I don’t think they’ll be able to be nearly as effective against a top-class defense like San Francisco.

Why don’t I think this game will be a blowout, then?  There’re a couple of reasons.

First of all, the Rams defense is too good for their pass rush to remain dormant forever.  They only have one sack so far this season, but that’s bound to change sooner or later, and the 49ers have not been great at pass protection this season.  That could be one area the Rams could exploit.

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Secondly, you have the energy of a prime-time game at home. 

The Rams don’t get many opportunities to play at home in prime time, and that might give them a boost—on Monday night home teams have historically done better against the spread than your average team, according to SharpFootballAnalysis.com. Add in the fact that the Greatest Show on Turf will be in attendance and you have the potential for the crowd to play a major role in this game.

Thirdly, you have the 49ers’ struggle to end their drive in touchdowns.  Only 44.4 percent of their red-zone drives have ended up in the end zone this season, per TeamRankings.com, and they’ve actually been trending down in recent weeks.  That’s something that has to be fixed sooner rather than later.

Finally, you have the relative importance of the game for the two teams.  The 49ers dropping to 3-3 wouldn’t be the end of the world; it would mean they would likely go into their bye with a losing record and probably would be looking at squeaking into a wild-card spot, but they wouldn’t be out of the race.

The Rams, on the other hand, could pretty much call their season over at 1-4.  

According to Benjamin Morris of FiveThirtyEightSports.com, teams with that record only make the playoffs 5 percent of the time, and they’d still have five games left against Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona.  That’s pretty much a “start looking at 2015” situation.  With their backs against the wall, the Rams might pull out all the stops to win this one.

In the end, I don’t think it will matter.  I feel the 49ers are clearly the superior team and will squeak one out on the road against a feisty, but ultimately losing, Rams squad.

Prediction: San Francisco 22, St. Louis 20

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.