Washington Huskies vs. Oregon Ducks Complete Game Preview
The Oregon Ducks (5-1, 2-1) are coming off their best road victory of the season, but there’s no time to relax as the rival Washington Huskies (5-1, 1-1) come roaring into Eugene on Saturday.
Oregon, ranked No. 9 in the latest Associated Press poll, has earned a victory in its last 10 meetings against the Huskies—a fact that doesn't sit well with Washington fans. However, this will be the first time that Oregon gets to face Washington’s new head coach Chris Petersen.
Duck fans remember Petersen well from his time at Boise State. With Petersen at the helm, the Broncos defeated the Ducks in 2008 and 2009.
The Huskies are still getting their feet wet under their new head coach but are coming off their most convincing win of the year—a 31-7 destruction of California in Berkeley.
There will be a lot on the line come Saturday at Autzen. Pac-12 North standings will take a back seat to this heated rivalry. This isn’t just another game for fans of the Ducks and Huskies. This is a border war and a fiery one at that.
Here's what you need to know:
Date: Saturday, Oct. 18
Time: 5 p.m. Pacific Time
Place: Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Ore.)
TV: Fox Sports 1
Spread: Oregon -19, according to OddsShark.com.
Oregon Keys to Victory
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Run, Run and Run Some More
Since 2007—Chip Kelly’s first year as offensive coordinator—the Ducks are 57-0 when they run 240 or more yards in a single game. Well, now we know what the Ducks plan against Washington should be.
The Ducks had been struggling on the ground through their first two conference games. Oregon had only rushed for a total of 311 yards against Washington State and Arizona, but the Ducks rushing attack finally gained some traction against UCLA.
Led by true freshman running back Royce Freeman—who registered Oregon’s first 100 yard performance of the year by gaining 121 yards on 18 carries—the Ducks gained 258 total yards on the ground. While Freeman led the charge, quarterback Marcus Mariota added 75 yards and two touchdowns on seven carries, and sophomore Thomas Tyner gained another 58 yards on 13 carries.
When the running game is going, the Ducks are nearly unstoppable, as evidenced by their 42-10 lead early in the fourth quarter against UCLA. The Ducks running game was aided by a less-than-stellar Bruins defense—ranked No. 77 against the run—and the addition of left tackle Jake Fisher, who bolstered the Ducks flawed offensive line.
The Ducks will face a stiffer test against the Huskies. Washington is ranked No. 28 against the run and is only allowing 3.08 yards per carry this season. However, the Ducks proved that they can run the ball effectively against strong competition with a near-healthy offensive line.
Oregon ran for 173 yards against Michigan State, who is ranked No. 5 in the country against the run this season and is only allowing 81.5 yards per game and 2.83 yards per carry.
It will be a tough test for the Ducks, but with Jake Fisher healthy and Royce Freeman running the ball, Oregon should be able to establish a strong rushing attack against the Huskies. However, if they fail on the ground, the Ducks could be in for another tough game.
Win the Turnover Battle
The Ducks are ranked No. 5 in the country in turnover margin. Oregon has only turned the ball over three times this season, and all three have come via lost fumbles. Marcus Mariota has yet to throw an interception this season. Conversely, Oregon’s defense has forced 12 turnovers this year—6 interceptions and 6 fumble recoveries.
The only game in which the Ducks forced a turnover and didn’t win the turnover battle was against Arizona. Both teams turned the ball over twice and Oregon’s turnovers, especially Mariota’s lost fumble on the final drive, proved to be more costly.
Against UCLA, the Ducks didn’t commit a turnover and forced a fumble and interception from quarterback Brett Hundley. Both of those turnovers were converted into touchdowns.
The Ducks face a much tougher test against a Washington team that is ranked No. 1 in the country in turnover margin. The Huskies have only committed one turnover this season—a fumble—and have forced 15 turnovers—10 fumble recoveries and five interceptions.
The winner of the turnover battle will likely win this contest. It is imperative that the Ducks offense keeps control of the ball and that the Oregon defense does everything in its power to get the ball back to Marcus Mariota and company.
Washington Keys to Victory
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Slow Down Mariota
In order to beat Oregon, the Huskies have no choice but to key in on Marcus Mariota and do everything in their power to slow him down. If Mariota gets going there is no stopping Oregon’s potent offense.
The Arizona Wildcats gave the entire conference a blueprint on how to slow down the Ducks. A defense must keep Mariota in the pocket thereby limiting his ability to make plays with his legs, slow down the Ducks rushing attack and force turnovers.
Washington leads the country in turnover margin and is ranked No. 3 in team sacks, having racked up 24 so far this season. The Huskies are ranked No. 28 against the rush, but they are susceptible to the pass. Washington is ranked No. 105 against the pass and is giving up 274.7 yards through the air per game.
The Huskies are clearly much better against the run and the Ducks offense operates at a much higher level when the running game is going. If the Huskies can win in the trenches and force Mariota to throw from the pocket, Washington will have a great chance to stealing this one from the Ducks and ending Oregon’s decade of dominance.
Move the Chains on the Ground
Washington’s rushing attack, while not its strongest quality, is ranked No. 40 in the country and is averaging 191.5 yards per game on the ground. Meanwhile, Oregon’s defense is now ranked No. 78 in the country against the run after allowing a season-high 328 yards on the ground against UCLA.
The Ducks defensive line struggled at times without defensive tackle Arik Armstead. We don’t know if Armstead will play against Washington, but if he’s not able to go the Huskies will be able to take on Oregon’s defensive line and win the battle.
The Huskies feature two very capable running backs in Lavon Coleman and Dwayne Washington. Establishing a running game against the Ducks is of the utmost importance for the Huskies.
While the Ducks don’t care much for time of possession, as evidenced by the fact that they rank No. 124 out of 125 teams in the category, a running attack that keeps the ball away from Oregon’s offense and continually moves the chains is an effective strategy for beating the Ducks.
Oregon Ducks Players to Watch
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Royce Freeman
Despite the fact that Freeman is Oregon’s least experienced running back, he’s been the Ducks best back so far this season.
With Tyner struggling in his sophomore season and junior Byron Marshall being moved to wide receiver—a move that was weeks in the making—Freeman took over the featured back role against Arizona.
And it doesn’t look like he’ll be relinquishing that job any time in the near future.
Freeman ran for 121 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries against UCLA. Through the first six games of his college career, Freeman has gained 467 yards and scored seven touchdowns on 85 carries. He’s the real deal.
With so much riding on his play, the Ducks can no longer consider Freeman to be a freshman. The Ducks coaches must let Freeman handle the rock as long as he’s churning out yards and touchdowns and not turning the ball over.
He’s been Oregon’s most effective running back by far this season, and now is the time to let the kid loose and see if he can take on one of the strongest rushing defenses in the country.
Jake Fisher
The Ducks starting left tackle returned to the team after missing the previous two games with an undisclosed leg injury. Oregon sorely missed his leadership and play.
Without Fisher, the Ducks gave up 12 sacks in two games against Washington State and Arizona. However, with Fisher back in the Ducks didn’t allow a single sack against UCLA.
Fisher solidified a line that had been downright putrid in conference play, and the Ducks will need Fisher to play at his best against a Washington team that is ranked No. 3 in the country with 24 sacks so far this season.
The Ducks offense finally looked liked itself again versus UCLA, and it had everything to do with Fisher’s return and Oregon’s offensive line finally playing together as a collective unit.
If Fisher is healthy and protecting Mariota’s backside, the Ducks have the stuff to win every game the rest of the season.
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Washington Huskies Players to Watch
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Shaq Thompson
Shaq Thompson is a bad, bad man.
Last week the junior linebacker had perhaps his best game as a Husky. If you haven’t seen it by now, Thompson returned a fumble 99 yards for a touchdown in Washington’s 31-7 win over California.
Thompson is tied for fifth in the NCAA in forced fumbles and is tied for second in fumble recoveries, with three of each in six games. Thompson also recorded a game-high 11 tackles against the Bears and was named the National Defensive Player of the Week by Athlon Sports following the game.
Thompson is Washington’s best defender and will be charged with slowing down Marcus Mariota and containing Oregon’s rushing attack.
There’s no doubt that Thompson will have an impact on this football game. If you don’t know about him already, you’ll know about him by the time this one is over.
Levon Coleman/Dwayne Washington
Washington’s two top running backs are freshman Levon Coleman and sophomore Dwayne Washington. So far this season the duo has produced 657 yards on the ground on 155 carries. They’ve also combined to score four touchdowns on the ground.
While Coleman and Washington are only producing 4.24 yards per carry, they’ve both run the ball effectively and helped the Husky offense move the chains down the field. The scary part for opposing defenses is that they’re only getting better.
While quarterback Cyler Miles will get most of the attention—considering he’s completing 66 percent of his passes this season and has thrown nine touchdowns versus zero interceptions—it is Coleman and Washington who are the backbone of Washington’s offense.
If they’re tearing up Oregon’s poor rushing defense, the Huskies have a shot to pull off the upset.
What They're Saying
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Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports has Marcus Mariota ranked No. 2 in his latest Heisman poll.
"Heisman Top 5 after Week 7
1) Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State
2) Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon Ducks
3) Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin Badgers
4) Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana Hoosiers
5) Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor Bears
"
Joel Odom of The Oregonian provides some perspective on how long it's been since Washington defeated Oregon.
"The last time the Huskies beat the Ducks, on Nov. 1, 2003, Beyoncé's "Baby Boy" was the nation's No. 1 single. And when Oregon's win streak started on Oct. 30, 2004? "My Boo" from Usher and Alicia Keys topped the charts.
Also on Oct. 30, 2004, the New Hampshire Wildcats beat Northeastern 27-23, and New Hampshire's offensive coordinator that day (and for two more seasons) was Chip Kelly.
"
Andrew Greif of The Oregonian says Washington provides a mediocre threat to Oregon.
"Threat level (1-5 scale) 3: If Oregon's offensive line can play like it did against UCLA, when it gave up zero sacks, then even a defense as talented as Washington's will have a hard time stopping the run game and Marcus Mariota.
Early prediction: Oregon 42, Washington 24
"
ESPN's Chantel Jennings has Oregon back on top of the Pac-12 Power Rankings after their big win over UCLA.
"Oregon looked like the best team in the conference again in a convincing win over UCLA. The offense -- powered by an O-line that saw the return of Jake Fisher -- put up big numbers, while the defense forced two turnovers and kept the Bruins from finding any kind of consistent momentum. The Ducks still need to take steps forward in their game, but this was a great win for Oregon as it looks to inch its way back into the national conversation and return to the forefront of the playoff talk as the best Pac-12 representative.
"
Bill Bender of Sporting News explains that Oregon's offense finally found the "explosion plays" it had been looking for.
"Oregon, however, finished with seven plays of 20 yards or more; UCLA had three and two of those came in the fourth quarter. Once Mariota got comfortable, the Ducks ripped off three "explosion plays" in the second quarter. Mariota hit Thomas Tyner on a 21-yard screen pass, the go-to call against a pass rush, for a TD. A 23-yard run by Royce Freeman set up a 31-yard TD pass to Pharaoh Brown. Oregon built a 21-3 lead with 3:01 left in the second quarter.
"
Video Breakdown
6 of 7Bleacher Report's Michael Felder breaks downs Oregon versus Washington.
Prediction
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The Ducks know they cannot afford to lose another game this season if they want to have any chance at earning a bid into the College Football Playoff. While Washington possesses a significant threat to their postseason aspirations, the Ducks should be able take care of the Huskies once again.
This matchup will come down to Oregon’s offensive line being able to create room for the running game and the Ducks defense being able to slow down Washington’s multi-faceted attack and force turnovers.
Marcus Mariota, as always, will be the difference-maker for the Ducks and lead Oregon to another conference victory.
Oregon 38, Washington 24
Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.
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