Nationals Future: Gloomy Or Glorious Depends on Next Few Days

If baseball is truly a ballet, then general managers all across the nation are strapping on their slippers and practicing their pirouettes. Midnight is fast approaching and the dance is about to end.

In about a week, the curtain will fall on all of those easy, I’ll-get-rid-of-him-because-I-can trades. Some teams, like the Yankees and Red Sox, are always buyers. They have more payroll dollars between the cushions of their couch then most teams have on the field.

Other teams, like the Pirates and Royals, will trade their talent for prospects, who then grow up to become talented major leaguers, who are then traded for prospects. It’s a process that lives somewhere between a vicious circle and Catch-22.

And then there is the Washington Nationals. 

The Nationals are not a poor franchise, and they aren’t playing in a small market. At least, I don’t think so. The Lerner family, owners of the franchise, is one of the richest in the District. And in terms of demographics and power, Washington is about as major market as it gets.

So with a week until the trade deadline, are the Nationals buyers, sellers, or stand-patters?
A couple of days ago, I would have said the Nationals were prepared to-for the most part-stand pat.

Oh, they might trade Willie Harris, and they need to trade Nick Johnson, but other than that, the team will likely wait until the off-season before trying to dig itself out of its 28-66 nightmare.

Now, several sources have reported that the Philadelphia Phillies were trying to work a deal for outfielder Josh Willingham.

And then, Baseball Prospectus reported the following yesterday: "When Adam Dunn was signed to a two-year deal for $20 million prior to the season, it seemed obvious that he'd play no role on a good Nationals team, and it seems like the organization was taking advantage of the deflated free-agent market to acquire a talent that could be more easily flipped later. Rizzo's initial statement that Dunn would not be dealt caused a lot of confusion in the industry, but that now looks like posturing for a better package."

Oh boy.

The Nationals are at a crossroads, no question about that. They have a few pieces of their puzzle in place, but not enough to make a difference this year. Two of the most important pieces are Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn.

Certainly, the Nationals wouldn’t be that much worse without them, but it’s on them that Nats’ fans have hung their hopes. They are indicators that team management can, and will, make the team better from outside of the organization.

During these last days of July, teams send signals to their fans. Through a single move, they give a strong indication as to what the team’s future will hold. Nationals’ fans are watching for those signs, fearful of what they might see.

Though I don’t want the team to trade Adam Dunn, I could at least understand if Mike Rizzo makes a deal for the slugging left fielder. He is only signed through 2010, and I doubt his time with the Nationals has been very enjoyable.

That said, Rizzo and the Nationals would be telling the fans point blank that there is no hope for next season either. They would be telling us that they have no intention of infusing the necessary funds to just keep the team as bad as they currently are.

In other words, 2010 would become a lost season even before it starts.

But Josh Willingham? Willingham will be under team control for a couple of more years, is a solid clubhouse guy and, if healthy, can be penciled in for .275-25-85 year in and year out. Why jettison someone that reliable in the hopes that he could bring a young player who one day might hit .275-25-85 for the Nationals?

The Nationals can do a couple of things over the next few months. They can, as hinted, get rid of their two power-hitting outfielders and, once again, start from scratch.

Or they could do the unthinkable and try to build a contender sooner rather than later.
There are basically five holes in the roster that is causing the team to be a pretender and not a contender.

As mentioned in an earlier story, the Nationals could move Dunn to first, sign players like (but not necessarily these players) Matt Holliday (left), Freddie Sanchez (second), Jack Wilson (short), and Brandon Webb (starting pitcher). All will be free agents in 2010.

Based on last year’s free agent market, those four players would cost the Nationals roughly $40 million per year, but they’ll free up $21 million when the contracts of Austin Kearns, Dmitri Young, Ronnie Belliard and Nick Johnson come off the books this fall.

So for about $20 million in additional funds, the Nationals can sign four big-name free agents and be good enough to contend for the Wild Card.

To me, it’s a no brainer. After five lousy years of baseball, the Nationals can either push back the hope of the fans another few years or they can step up and give the team a winner in 2010 for not a whole lot of dollars.

Oh, I’ll still support them regardless of what they do over the next few days, but the same cannot be said for those remaining “fair weather” fans that still come to Nationals Park and watch the team.

The Nationals can average 15,000 fans per game in 2010, or they can average 33,000 fans a game, and what ends up happening to Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham in the next week will be the indicator of what will happen.

Keep Dunn. Keep Willingham. Keep your fans.

Simple enough for you, Mike?