The Only 7 Teams Who Control Their Own College Football Playoff Destiny
There is still so much to be determined, and yet, it’s amazing how much we already know.
The bedlam of the college football season has created a foggy College Football Playoff picture at the halfway point. Entire conferences already need help to garner consideration for one of the four coveted spots. As a result, the usual jam-packed list of undefeated teams is surprisingly modest. Auburn, Arizona and TCU fell this week, making a small list even smaller.
"Only six unbeatens remain. There were 14 following the games of Week 7 last year and 12 at this point in 2012.
— Brett Edgerton (@EditorEdge) October 12, 2014"
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Resumes are being crafted, and a group of human beings—better known as the selection committee—will likely have its work cut out.
Through the madness, a handful of programs still control their own playoff destiny, pushing past the various bits of carnage. Some of these teams will eventually clash, two as early as next week.
As for those currently in control of their playoff destiny, here is the updated rundown.
Mississippi State
Thought by many, including me, to be the No. 1 team in the nation, Mississippi State is racking up critical wins week after week. Although the path to an unbeaten regular season is far from a given, Mississippi State certainly controls its own playoff fate as it dives deeper into SEC play.
With their win over Auburn, the Bulldogs have done a complete perception transformation. It was by no means a clean game on either side—with conditions and turnovers playing a significant role—but the victory served as a reminder that this team is very much for real for those who weren’t ready to embrace this unfamiliar contender.
Still, the path to perfection is riddled with difficult games. Dan Mullen’s squad still has road games at Kentucky (yes, this should be noted), Alabama and rival Ole Miss. It also has a home matchup against Arkansas.
"If we keep on this path, ask me the second week of December," Mullen said to CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd following Saturday’s game.
At this rate and path, we might have to.
Ole Miss
“Some” college football writers on Bleacher Report—writers who will remain nameless—predicted that Ole Miss would struggle against Texas A&M due to an Alabama hangover. Boy, were “those” guys wrong.
Playing on the road a week after taking out the Crimson Tide, the Rebels dominated Texas A&M at Kyle Field. As a result, much like its instate rival, the expectations for this team have evolved, even more so from where it was a week ago.
The obvious obstacle, of course, is Mississippi State. On top of what could be the most hyped Egg Bowl ever played, Ole Miss still has road trips to LSU and Arkansas. The Rebels also play Auburn at home.
Of all undefeated teams, this is likely the most turbulent playoff path. But given the way Hugh Freeze’s team has played thus far on both sides of the ball, the possibility of a playoff appearance should be embraced.
Like Mississippi State, Ole Miss has gone from good story to SEC wrecking ball.
Florida State
Even with negativity and distractions hovering over the program, the Seminoles have quietly gone about their business while the teams around them have fallen.
In many ways, Florida State’s 38-20 victory over Syracuse on Saturday was a microcosm of the season: a lot of good on both sides of the ball, and yet, the overall product isn’t quite where it was a year ago.
Through it all, FSU is right where it needs to be. Although you could question the overall strength of the ACC, it does not matter for the Seminoles.
If they win out, they’re in the playoff. There’s no debate there.
With games against Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami and Florida on tap—along with a matchup against an ACC Coastal team to be determined—the Seminoles’ road to the playoff is much kinder than others. Arguably the biggest test still to come is now in the on-deck circle.
Speaking of…
Notre Dame
It has not always been clean. It has not always been efficient. It has not always been easy on the eyes. But through the first two months of the college football season, Notre Dame has managed to stay unbeaten.
Faced with the ultimate sandwich game, Notre Dame powered past North Carolina 50-43 after a slow start. This came a week after the Irish needed a late touchdown to squeeze past Stanford 17-14 at home and before a critical matchup against Florida State in Tallahassee.
While style points are not exactly piling up for Brian Kelly’s team, they’re of no importance right now. If—and the open-ended nature of the word is critical here—the Irish beat Florida State, they will immediately vault into playoff consideration. Of course they will.
Beyond Florida State, a team you can’t simply glaze past, Notre Dame still plays at Navy, at Arizona State and at USC. No one said it would be easy, but the Irish are in position.
Baylor
Even without a conference championship game, Baylor is sitting pretty for one of the four vacant CFB Playoff openings. “Pretty” isn’t a word you’d use to describe how the Bears got to this point, although, like others included, it’s gotten the job done.
A basketball score-infused comeback against TCU to maintain this position was needed for Baylor on Saturday. Down three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the Bears ultimately took down TCU 61-58 at home. Despite watching the game in its entirety, the score still felt strange to type.
As a result, Art Briles’ group is still in lovely shape. It doesn’t erase the holes that require attention, but Baylor is still unbeaten. With games against West Virginia, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State to come, however, the Bears will need to get right in a hurry to stay in control of their fate as the season progresses.
Georgia or Kentucky (the “Let’s Get Weird” Scenario)
In a game of “who doesn’t belong?” this category would light an M-80 and throw its hand up straight up into the sky to be noticed. Your confused outrage at this point is understood and appreciated.
However, the team to come out of the SEC East still—at this moment in time—controls its own playoff destiny. The two teams at the top of the standings, Georgia and Kentucky, will play one another on November 8. It is uncertain if running back Todd Gurley will play in this game for Georgia or what Kentucky will look like if/when he does, but these are the only two two teams with one loss in the East.
That means they’re still alive.
For this to transpire, one of these two teams would also have to win every other game on its schedule. And, making it even more complicated, the one-loss team will have to beat the SEC West champion as a significant underdog. At that point, they would be all but guaranteed a spot in the playoff even without an unblemished loss column.
It is strange and remarkably unlikely. And yet, the scenario remains very real.
In a year built on madness, no doomsday stone should go unturned.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
