Ronnie Hillman Has Limited Fantasy Upside in Deep Broncos Backfield

The excitement surrounding Denver Broncos running back Ronnie Hillman's first career start is palpable. Regular starter Montee Ball is expected to miss multiple games with a groin injury, per ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold, and Hillman is expected to produce against a disjointed New York Jets defense that just gave up 182 all-purpose yards to San Diego Chargers fourth-string running back Branden Oliver.

The majority of the fanfare is likely generated by desperate fantasy football owners keen on a big day from Hillman to deliver a sleeper-based, handcuff win—the type of win that is especially worthy of post-glory braggadocio.

Hillman could very well prove to be a better fantasy option than Ball, who's been largely disappointing in 2014.

Week, Opponent	RSH	YDS	AVG	TD	REC	TGTS	YDS
1, Indianapolis Colts	23	67	2.9	1	2	2	16
2, Kansas City Chiefs	12	60	5.0	0	3	3	29
3, Seattle Seahawks	14	38	2.7	0	2	3	6
5, Arizona Cardinals	6	7	1.2	0	2	3	11

However, the Broncos have a deep stable of athletic, capable backs and thus could limit the number of touches—and overall fantasy production—of the former San Diego State standout.

Hillman played well after Ball exited the Broncos' Week 5 win over the Arizona Cardinals. He racked up 64 yards on 15 carries and was clearly the main weapon out of the backfield for the team. Quarterback Peyton Manning is expecting him to step up in all facets of the game with the starting role in hand.

"When you’re the starting back and you’re running out there in pregame warm-ups as a starting back, there’s a different hat that you wear,” he said, per a report from Arnie Stapleton of The Associated Press (h/t CBS Denver).

“So, we’re counting on him in the run game, pass game and pass protection. There is no question he has a burst that is pretty unique when he gets the ball in his hands, and it’s our job to give him the space."

All eyes are definitely on Hillman, but he had just three touches on the season prior to the Cardinals game and couldn't break through when Ball struggled, mostly because the offense flows through Manning and talented targets such as tight end Julius Thomas and wide receiver Demaryius Thomas.

Indeed, the Broncos don't rely on their running backs to shoulder a great offensive load with a healthy Manning in the fold. Ball has averaged a middling 3.1 yards per carry this season and has reeled in just nine catches in Denver's pass-happy offense. Hillman stepped up when Ball went down, but he wasn't the only back to impress against the Cardinals.

Rookie Juwan Thompson carried the ball three times for 15 yards and managed to poach a touchdown in Week 5. It was his first meaningful action of the 2014 season, but he's already caught the attention of head coach John Fox, per Troy Renck of The Denver Post:

Yahoo Sports' Brandon Funston doesn't see the point in expecting big things from Hillman this week, per a report from Brad Evans:

"

I want nothing to do with the Denver backfield this week for a couple reasons, first and foremost being that it is facing a Jets defense allowing 3.4 YPC to opposing running backs. Another concern is that Denver has been the fifth-least productive fantasy backfield to this point.

And, finally, there's a the lack of certainty of ball distribution in the backfield. Would anyone really be surprised if Hillman was mostly ineffective in the first half and suddenly Juwan Thompson is getting a featured shot after halftime?

"

It's a valid point. Ball didn't exactly light up opposing defenses before he went down with his groin injury, and yet Hillman couldn't break through and get onto the field. Running back C.J. Anderson received the majority of the limited tailback touches available, carrying the ball 11 times through the Broncos' first three games.

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Much of Hillman's fantasy value will likely come on passing downs. He averaged 9.9 yards per reception in 2013, and his (relatively) slight build makes him very tough for opposing defenders to corral in space.

The Chargers were able to gash the Jets defense on the ground quite often in Week 5, but the guys in green are still allowing just 3.3 yards per carry on the season, per ESPN.com.

However, there is no guarantee that he will be on the field for the majority of passing plays. Offensive coordinator Andrew Gase has confidence in the pass-blocking abilities of all three of his available backs.

"And the other two guys (C.J. Anderson and Juwan Thompson) are thicker guys to begin with and they do a good job of staying stout, but they have made so many strides,” Gase said, reports Arnie Stapleton of the Associated Press. “And right now I feel good about where we’re at on protection and those guys being able to step up and block linebackers."

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

There is a good chance the trio will rotate in on passing downs. Gase kept his comments to pass-protection abilities, but Manning has never been afraid to check down if there is nothing downfield, and any of these backs could get the call to chip an oncoming rusher and then get the ball out in the flat on a delayed route.

Hillman would probably do the most damage of the Broncos backs on a play like this, but he will need to prove his worth in every facet of the game, including running between the tackles, to earn this spot.

Expect Hillman to get 15-20 touches in this contest, even if the Broncos jump out to an early lead. The Jets are in complete disarray at this point in the season, and an upset victory looks highly unlikely, even in a game at MetLife Stadium. Should the Broncos move to the ground game to seal the win, they could very well turn to Hillman. 

If Hillman is to become a worthy fantasy starter, he will have to get his points early and often against the Jets. He's definitely worth a shot as an RB3 or flex option in Week 6, but any one of these halfbacks could emerge as the lead fantasy football threat in Ball's absence.