Forecasting the Top 2014 League Championship Series MVP Candidates

As we get deeper into the American and National League Championship Series, let's forecast each team's top contender to hoist the LCS MVP award.

San Francisco Giants—Madison Bumgarner

Fresh off pitching Game 1, Bumgarner has really come into his own this season, notching his second straight All Star appearance as a reward for his best campaign to date. Turning 25 in August, the left-hander set a career high in innings pitched (217.1) and in strikeout-to-walk ratio, his 5.09 mark ranking fourth in the NL behind Clayton Kershaw, Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg.

Bumgarner's ability to pitch deep in games and limit baserunners are a few reasons why he's the top candidate from the Giants to win the MVP. Going seven or eight strong innings twice in a playoff series automatically makes you a contender for the award and will increase Bumgarner's notoriety on the national stage.

St. Louis Cardinals—Lance Lynn

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Why Lance Lynn and not Adam Wainwright? For one, Wainwright has a lot of injury questions surrounding him. Second, Lynn is better than people realize and appears poised to start twice at home, and the right-hander sure enjoys his home cooking.

The 27-year-old finished the 2014 regular season with a 2.77 ERA in 203 innings, the second straight year he has passed the 200-inning mark. His peripherals have held up, as his fielding independent pitching mark checks in at a strong 3.35 on the back of a good strikeout rate, solid walk rate and an uncanny ability to limit home runs. In 616 career innings, he's only given up 46 round-trippers and only allowed 13 this year. Avoiding the big hit is half the battle for a pitcher.

At home in 2014, Lynn's ERA is 2.50 in 18 starts compared to 3.05 on the road in 15 starts. But that doesn't tell the entire story. Remember his ability to limit home runs? This kicks in at home (which is unsurprising given Busch Stadium is slightly favorable to pitchers), where he allowed just four in those 18 starts compared to nine on the road. It's not just small sample size, either. Over his career, Lynn has a 2.80 ERA at home through 309 innings and a 4.13 ERA on the road in 307 innings. As one would expect, he also has a much better home run and K/BB ratio historically at home.

Winning two starts at home would give Lynn all the narrative he needs to earn the MVP award.

Baltimore Orioles—Nelson Cruz

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Speaking of narrative, Cruz is a no-brainer when it comes to winning the MVP award.

The narrative with Cruz has been his clutch abilities. Remember 2011, when Cruz won the ALCS MVP award? It's hard to forget for this particular author, who was in attendance. Cruz had six home runs, which set an ALCS record along with 13 RBI, as I wrote for CBS Sports at the time. He's also the first person in postseason history to hit two extra-inning home runs in the same series, one a walk-off grand slam.

Since then, Cruz just keeps flying high.

He blasted past his previous career high (33 in 2009) in home runs this season, banging 40 for the Orioles, which puts him in prime MVP contention. He's since added two more, going yard twice in the American League Division Series to put away the Tigers.

Already one of the most prolific home run hitters in postseason history, if he can knock a couple crucial home runs, the narrative will take over from there, and Cruz will grab his second ALCS MVP award.

Kansas City Royals—Greg Holland

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The ALCS boasts a battle of two of the best bullpens in the league, with Kansas City closer Greg Holland and setup man Wade Davis battling it out against Baltimore's Zach Britton and Andrew Miller.

If Kansas City hopes to pull out a victory over the Orioles, it's going to come down to Holland nailing down saves. It's entirely possible he could become the second straight closer to take home MVP honors after Koji Uehara completely nullified the Tigers offense in 2013.

Holland, who already has two saves to his name after closing out Games 1 and 2, has been one of the best closers since assuming the position partway through the 2012 season. Over the last two seasons, he's racked up an incredible 93 saves in 133 games with a minuscule 1.32 ERA. Over 129.1 innings, he's punched out 193 and walked just 38. He's as automatic as it gets when it comes to slamming the door on opponents, with just five blown saves over the past two years, good for a 95 percent save rate.

Given how often Kansas City has had to play into extra innings, the vaunted bullpen—led by Holland—has been the most important element to the Royals' run to the pennant. If they should make the World Series, chances are Holland will be hoisting the hardware that signifies he made it happen.

Advanced stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.