Bowl Predictions 2014: Updated Playoff Picks Heading into Week 7
When 11 of the Top 25 teams in the Associated Press Poll lose in a single week, it is bound to turn the College Football Playoff race upside down.
That is exactly what happened in the aftermath of Week 6, when the Nos. 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18 and 19 teams all lost. Predicting the four playoff spots is anyone’s guess now, as mainstays like Florida State remain among the leaders alongside Cinderella stories from Mississippi State and Ole Miss.
We recently projected Georgia as the fourth playoff team after the Week 6 upsets, but that now changes after the latest news regarding star running back Todd Gurley, via national college sports writer Bryan Fischer:
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Now that Georgia is out of the field, read on for a refresher on the other three squads and to find out which team takes the Bulldogs' spot.
Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: Florida State vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: Michigan State vs. Alabama
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (Semifinal winners)
Teams
Florida State
As long as Florida State continues to win, regardless of how impressive the final deficit is, it is going to crack the field of four.
It’s not only because the Seminoles are the defending champions, either. An undefeated regular season would include wins over Notre Dame, Oklahoma State and Clemson, as well as victories in a number of trap games against the likes of Florida, Miami, Virginia and Louisville. What’s more, it is hard to argue with Florida State’s overall talent level if we are discussing best teams.
The Notre Dame game stands out as the one remaining significant challenge. It will help Florida State that it is at home, but it is more important that it is Notre Dame’s first true road game. That’s right, the Fighting Irish only play four true road games this season, and the first one just so happens to come against the defending champs.
The thinking here is that Notre Dame is unprepared to challenge Florida State into the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma
The key here for Oklahoma—or anyone with plans on winning the Big 12—is the Pac-12 beating itself up.
We are working under the assumption that the SEC champ and Florida State are already taking two spots, so the Pac-12 champion having multiple losses would be critical for the eventual Big 12 and Big Ten champions.
The Sooners will bounce back from their loss to TCU quickly because contests against Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State are all at home. Oklahoma will take care of business in Norman while squads such as Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State, Utah, Stanford and Arizona are all handing each other multiple losses.
Head coach Bob Stoops also had an answer to anyone who thinks the Sooners have a relatively easy schedule, via Jason Kersey of The Oklahoman:
"To me, strength of schedule is the biggest issue. Some conferences play nine conference games; some play eight. That’s a big deal, who you’re playing in those other four or other three games.
We’re playing nine [conference games] and Tennessee. We just had Notre Dame and Florida State, outside of our nine conference games. Hopefully that should make a difference, if you’re all winning.
"
Michigan State
The Pac-12 decimating itself will have the same impact for Michigan State’s playoff chances as Oklahoma’s.
The Spartans will move up the polls as the SEC and Pac-12 teams accumulate losses, and that loss to Oregon will fade into the memory of early September. Michigan State should handle Purdue, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, Rutgers and Penn State as well, which means the team will have to beat Ohio State to reach the playoffs.
The Buckeyes and quarterback J.T. Barrett look much better now than they did at the start of the year, but that game is in East Lansing under the lights. The prediction here is that Michigan State prevails with a strong defense against the young Ohio State offense, which will give it an excellent opportunity to reach the playoffs.
Assuming the Spartans will easily win out is perhaps showing a lack of respect for the Big Ten as a whole, but we are clearly not the only ones who think Michigan State will crack the playoff field, as Joe Rexrode of the Detroit Free Press pointed out:
Alabama
Georgia was projected here largely because we were working under the assumption that the SEC West teams would beat each other up.
However, now Todd Gurley is suspended, the thought is that Alabama will emerge from the SEC West and beat the SEC East champion. The SEC has built up so much capital the past few years—with seven straight national titles before Florida State won last season—that the champion will reach the playoffs, even if that team has two losses.
Alabama gets Auburn, Mississippi State and Texas A&M at home, while Auburn has to go to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. That is an absolutely brutal road schedule for the Tigers.
What’s more, Ole Miss still has to go to Texas A&M and play Auburn and Mississippi State, while Mississippi State has to go to Alabama and Ole Miss on top of a home game with Auburn.
None of these schedules are easy by any stretch (such is life in the SEC West), but Alabama faces all its challenges at home. Not to mention the fact that we are talking about the program that has dominated college football recently and will likely be playing with a chip on its shoulder for the rest of season after a heartbreaking loss to Ole Miss.
The result will be a playoff spot for Nick Saban’s bunch.
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