Ohio State Buckeyes Are Still a Long Shot to Make the College Football Playoff

In college football, a team is only as good as its last win. Fresh of its 52-24 victory at Maryland last Saturday, Ohio State is looking pretty good heading into its second bye week.

The renewed sense of optimism in Central Ohio is palpable. Three dominating wins in a row will do that. Buckeye Nation is back to thumping its chest. While laudable, there is considerable work remaining to be done. Demanding respect in the polls is a little premature.

The good news is the carnage in the Top 10 last weekend has the Buckeyes poised to climb back into the College Football Playoff picture. The bad news is they have no room for error. They also need help from a lot of teams in front of them. Chances are still slim that they make it into the selection committee’s top four. Here are three reasons why.

Must Finish 12-1

The Buckeyes need to win the rest of their games to have any chance at making the playoff. The schedule is certainly favorable considering how ordinary the Big Ten is this year, but the trip to East Lansing on November 8 is still looming. Are the Buckeyes good enough to beat the Spartans? Not yet.  

Ohio State’s offensive production over the last three games has been remarkable, but the reality is it was playing against pathetic defenses. Kent State’s defense is allowing 462.2 yards and 33.6 points per game, Cincinnati is giving up 561.8 yards and 37.3 points per game and Maryland is yielding 451.2 yards and 25.2 per game. Granted, the offense could have struggled to move the ball or put up points. Instead it was in command in all three games.

Head coach Urban Meyer’s young offense is beginning to find its rhythm and is playing with increasing confidence. Momentum is building, but the offense still needs to show that it can execute against a formidable defense before any real assessment can be made.

Rutgers and Penn State will provide reasonable tests for Ohio State over the next three weeks. Both teams have good defenses. They’re not as stout as Michigan State’s defense, but they are definitely better than the doormats the Buckeyes have been playing lately. These games will measure whether or not they are capable of scoring a lot of points against the Spartans.

Michigan State’s defense certainly grabs most of the headlines, but its offense is dangerous too. The Buckeyes defense will have its hands full the entire game. Evidence is starting to mount that it is able to handle the challenge.

Until the second half of the Cincinnati game, there was cause for concern because the secondary looked like it was going to be a serious problem again this year. For the last six quarters, the back seven has played well. They are maturing and beginning to demonstrate just how dominant they can be. This growth needs to continue for the Buckeyes to have a shot at winning a night game against a highly motivated Michigan State team.  

One Major Conference Champion, and Notre Dame Must have Two Losses

With just four spots to spread among the champions from the five major conferences and Notre Dame, the Buckeyes will need one conference champion and Notre Dame to have at least two losses for them to make into the playoff.

For argument’s sake, let’s say all of the conference champions finish with one loss. The SEC and Pac-12 champions are in because these conferences are clearly the best this season. This leaves two spots for the Big 12, Big 10, ACC and the Fighting Irish.

Barring a complete meltdown, the Seminoles will win the lowly ACC. Despite being even weaker than the Big Ten, the likelihood is minimal that the committee would deny a one-loss Florida State team the chance to defend its national championship.

This leaves one spot for the Big 12, Big Ten and Notre Dame should it stay in the hunt.

Ohio State would probably get picked over a one-loss Baylor and TCU, but edging out a one-loss Oklahoma or Notre Dame is questionable. The Big 12 is better than the Big 10 this year, and it would be tough for the committee to select the Buckeyes over the Sooners.

Presuming Notre Dame’s one loss is against Florida State, it would still have wins over Michigan, Purdue, Northwestern, Navy, Arizona State, Stanford, Louisville and USC. Even the most diehard Buckeye fan would have to admit that this resume would trump Ohio State’s resume if the fourth spot comes down to these two teams.

Like it or not, the perception around the country is the Big Ten is weak. The Buckeyes can win the Big Ten, finish 12-1 and still not get selected if several other high-quality teams finish with just one loss too. Ohio State will need significant help to get into the selection committee’s top four. A few additional losses by some of the remaining favorites would do it.

Lack of Chances to Earn Style Points

Unlike all of the remaining contenders who have several games to prove they are one of the four best teams, Ohio State’s remaining opportunity to earn credible style points is the game at Michigan State. A potential game against Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship Game would help a little, but the only game with legitimate flare is against the Spartans.

To counter, the Buckeyes must run up the score on every team and soundly beat the Spartans. They cannot afford any close games or scares against inferior opponents. Ohio State must continue to show that the loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2 was a minor setback caused more by the loss of Braxton Miller than any systemic flaw in the team.

Analysis

Ohio State can only control how it plays. The early-season loss to the Hokies may be forgiven as long as the rest of the body of work is extraordinarily impressive. Anything less is a knockout punch.

The Buckeyes' best hope is a continuation of chaos. Working in their favor is there seems to be a lack of dominant teams in college football this season. Many of the preseason favorites have already lost a game, and Florida State has looked vulnerable in several games. More upsets are likely.

Expectations are that the committee will select conference winners. The Pac-12 and SEC champions are in unless there is complete pandemonium in conference play. Despite its flaws, Florida State will find a way to remain unbeaten and make it. This means it is time for the Buckeyes to root against the Big 12 and Notre Dame. They are the primary roadblocks if the Buckeyes take care of their business.

A month ago, Ohio State looked lost, but Meyer has held the ship together and weathered the storm. The tide is slowly turning in their favor. With eight more wins and a little luck, the Buckeyes might get selected for the inaugural playoff. Odds are long, but that will make the journey much more interesting.