Has Wild Card Game Really Provided Daunting Hurdle for Postseason Run?

When Major League Baseball created the second wild card in each league in 2012, thus expanding the postseason field to 10 teams, there were two main agendas at play.

The first, of course, was to give more teams a chance to hang around the playoff picture and matter late into the regular season. The idea of creating excitement for more teams and fanbases by keeping hopes alive has paid off.

The second? Putting more of an onus on winning the division rather than settling for the wild card. Remember, prior to 2012, any club that made it to October was guaranteed a best-of-five Division Series, regardless of whether they won their division.

That was all well and good, except there was no real difference between earning a playoff berth via a division crown or sneaking in with a wild-card spot.

And so from the 17 seasons from 1995, when the wild card was first created, through 2011, 10 wild-card clubs wound up reaching the World Series.

SEASON	TEAM
1997	Marlins
2000	Mets
2002	Giants
2002	Angels
2003	Marlins
2004	Red Sox
2005	Astros
2006	Tigers
2007	Rockies
2011	Cardinals
*Highlight = Won WS

As you can see, among those 10 teams that made it via the wild card and reached the Fall Classic, five went on to win it all, including three in a row from 2002-04. What's more, at least one World Series team came from the wild card every year from 2002 through 2007.

CHARLES REX ARBOGAST/Associated Press/Associated Press

The wild card didn't seem to be a big enough disadvantage, so MLB changed that by adding a second wild card to each league and having those two face off in a one-game, do-or-die play-in contest.

And yet, here we are in the Championship Series round and (wouldn't ya know it?) both the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants—the two wild-card winners—not only are still around, but they also look extremely confident and strong.

So again, baseball is left to wonder: Is winning the Wild Card Game the sort of thing that actually can provide a boost and send a team on a journey into late October?

Maybe, but that's about buying into the momentum narrative.

A quick look at the past two postseasons—the ones with two wild-card teams per league—reveals that getting past the one-game playoff isn't necessarily going to catapult a club to the World Series.

Season	AL WC Winner	Postseason Outcome	NL WC Winner	Postseason Outcome
2012	Orioles	Lost ALDS (3-2)	Cardinals	Lost NLCS (4-3)
2013	Rays	Lost ALDS (3-1)	Pirates	Lost NLDS (3-2)
2014	Royals	ALCS vs. Orioles	Giants	NLCS vs. Cardinals

Of the four wild-card winners from 2012 and 2013 clubs, only the '12 St. Louis Cardinals made it through the Division Series. And even that required a remarkable four-run comeback in the ninth inning of Game 5 against the Washington Nationals.

As for this year, it's entirely possible that neither the Royals nor the Giants will make it all the way to the Fall Classic.

If one or both do, however, there's another factor besides momentum that doesn't get discussed enough in this whole situation: playoff scheduling.

Because of all the off-days built into each series and between series, teams are pretty much able to get their rotations realigned by the Championship Series, provided they get through the Division Series.

Heck, that's why the Royals are able to have their No. 1, James Shields, go in Game 1 of the ALCS, and why the Giants can turn to Madison Bumgarner for the first game of the NLCS—both on regular rest, by the way.

"I feel good, my body feels great," Shields said in his press conference ahead of his Game 1 start. "Everything is right on track with where it needs to be. I'm ready to go."

The current format certainly puts the Wild Card Game winners at a disadvantage for having to use their aces before even getting to a playoff series, but the breaks and pauses in the schedule—primarily for television purposes—is what mitigates that disadvantage after just the Division Series.

In other words, if a division winner doesn't want to have to worry about falling just short of the World Series in an LCS matchup against a wild-card winner, it's best not to let them get there in the first place.
 

Statistics are accurate through Oct. 9 and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.

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