Baltimore Orioles vs. KC Royals: Keys for Each Team to Win the 2014 ALCS

Getting to this point, the American League Championship Series, has been a long (looong) time coming for both the Baltimore Orioles and, especially, the Kansas City Royals.

The O's haven't made it this far into October since 1997, while the Royals, well, you're probably all too familiar by now about 1985.

That's right: These two franchises have a combined 46 years between them since they were last in the ALCS.

Think they're ready for this showdown to start up Friday evening at 8 p.m. ET in Baltimore?

While the two clubs are counting down the hours to game time, here's a rundown of a handful of keys that will determine which team is headed to the World Series.

Buck Showalter vs. Ned Yost

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

On the surface, this might not seem like a major mismatch, as both Buck Showalter and Ned Yost are sure to garner their share of votes for the AL Manager of the Year Award.

The honor, though, will most likely go to the Orioles skipper for his preparedness and decision-making throughout the season. Yost, on the other hand, is getting most of his points from guiding a team that is exceeding expectations.

Showalter is simply a better in-game manager because of his keen sense for making any number of calls—from which players to start based on the opposing starting pitcher, to how to properly use his bullpen, to the appropriate substitutions of pinch runners and defensive replacements.

As Orioles pitcher Andrew Miller said, via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com: "Whatever [Showalter] does seems to be the right one. I've had a lot of great coaches, a lot of great managers, but I don't know that I've ever seen anybody as prepared as Buck Showalter. I think it pays off. I think the staff as a whole is really, really special and I think it goes a long ways."

Given the two bench bosses involved, managerial maneuvers are going to be a big storyline to follow throughout this ALCS. And Showalter could put on a clinic.

Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz vs. Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland

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The two biggest bats in this series are unquestionably Nelson Cruz and Adam Jones. Both righty swingers, they destroy southpaws but have their share of struggles against same-side arms.

Against righties, Jones' OPS is just .709 and Cruz's is .823, compared to 1.003 and .977, respectively, versus lefties.

And when it comes to facing Royals right-handers Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland, Jones is 7-for-33 (.212) in his career with eight strikeouts and just one walk. Cruz, meanwhile, has only three hits in 21 at-bats (.143) with 11 whiffs and no free passes against those three.

Put it all together, and the O's two most dangerous hitters are 10-for-54 (.185) with only six extra-base hits (three homers) and a 19-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against the pitchers they're most likely to see from the seventh inning on.

As Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes:

"

Kansas City's three-headed monster of Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera went a combined 14-8 with a 1.28 ERA and 49 saves in the regular season. They struck out 258 in just 204 1/3 innings. They allowed just three home runs. …

"You look at their numbers, and it's the best I've ever seen for a back-end three guys, and we owe a lot of our success to them," Royals starter James Shields said."

If Jones and Cruz are going to do their damage in this series, chances are they'll have to do it before having to face Herrera, Davis and Holland.

Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas vs. Andrew Miller and Zach Britton

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

While Jones and Cruz have to be wary of the Royals' late-game trio, the same thing goes for K.C.'s biggest hitters against the Orioles' key relievers—only in reverse.

Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas all bat left-handed, and Baltimore's two best bullpen arms—setup man Andrew Miller and closer Zach Britton—just so happen to be southpaws.

Gordon, Hosmer and Moustakas have OPSes of .787, .676 and .554, respectively, versus same-side pitchers this year, compared to .782, .732 and .653 against righties. Gordon didn't show any real platoon split in 2014, but it's clear that Hosmer and Moustakas have their issues.

What's interesting, however, is that those three actually have fared well enough against Miller and Britton to this point.

While Moustakas is just 1-for-6 against them, Hosmer is 5-for-15 (.333) and Gordon has gone 11-for-20 (.550) with four extra-base hits (two homers).

Altogether, that's 17-for-41 (.415) with six extra-base knocks (two homers) and a 9-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Hosmer, Moustakas and Gordon have had better results against the Orioles' top two relievers than Jones and Cruz have had against K.C.'s top three. That could bode well for the Royals.

The only thing to point out here is that a number of the matchups took place prior to 2014, meaning they came before Britton's breakout year and before Miller came into his own as one of the game's very best relievers. Not to mention, both Britton and Miller were starters early in their careers, so past success might not be quite the same going forward.

The Royals' Running vs. the Orioles' Run-Stoppers

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

The Royals like to run more than any team in baseball (MLB-high 153 steals), and they're better at it than just about any team, too, with an 81 percent success rate.

They also set a postseason record with a whopping seven swipes against the Oakland Athletics in the AL Wild Card Game, which presents a problem for the Orioles, as Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun writes:

"

The Orioles haven’t faced the Royals since May, but in seven regular-season matchups, Kansas City was a perfect 5-for-5 in stolen bases.

"It’s kind of what they do, and they’re very good at it," Showalter said. "What do they say, speed doesn’t go into a slump?"

"

Baltimore's Game 1 starter, Chris Tillman, has allowed all of—count 'em—two stolen bases the past two seasons, while would-be thievers have been caught 11 times in that span. Folks, that's an 85 percent caught-stealing rate across 2013-14.

Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs gives a detailed report as to why Tillman does such a splendid job of holding runners and preventing them from, well, running. Namely, it's about his "terrific pickoff move, deception and varied timing."

And although runners had more success against Wei-Yin Chen, notching five steals, they only made six attempts against the left-hander all year long.

Then there's catcher Caleb Joseph, a rookie who has been one of the best around at nailing runners. In fact, he has thrown out 23 of 57, which translates to an AL-best 40 percent caught-stealing rate.

This is going to be a fun aspect to watch in this series. Especially when a big spot late in the game is calling for the Royals to use their well-wheeled weapons, Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore.

Statistics are accurate through Oct. 9 and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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