Bold Predictions for the 2014 ALCS, NLCS Series Action

With the 2014 American League Championship Series set to kick off Friday at 8 p.m. ET at Camden Yards and the National League Championship Series ready to lift the lid Saturday at 8 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium, the MLB postseason officially enters the stretch run.

As usual, there are predictions aplenty. We’re here to make two bold predictions about each series.

No, that doesn’t include a prediction about who is going to win. That’s not all that bold.

(For the record, though, I have the San Francisco Giants edging the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games and the Kansas City Royals taking out the Baltimore Orioles in six.)

Here are four bold predictions for the ALCS and NLCS, including who will win the MVP for each series.

Matt Carpenter Will Continue His Dominance

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

In the National League Division Series, Matt Carpenter put up a .375/.412/1.125 slash line with three home runs, three doubles and seven RBI in 16 at-bats. He was the most impressive hitter in manager Mike Matheny’s lineup by a wide margin.

To say that it was unexpected would be an understatement.

In September, he slashed out at .250/.366/.310 with three extra-base hits and 19 strikeouts in 84 at-bats. He simply wasn’t getting the job done at the plate as the season drew to a close, but he came up big against the Los Angeles Dodgers pitching staff.  

He was so good that it would be easy to say that there is no way he can repeat the performance.

If we look at his splits versus the Giants rotation, however, there is every reason to believe that he won't skip a beat.

In five at-bats against Madison Bumgarner, for example, he is slashing out at .600/.667/1.000 with two doubles and a walk. Versus Ryan Vogelsong, his slash line is .500/.583/.700 in 11 plate appearances. And when Tim Hudson is on the bump, he’s 2-for-3 with a double.

Granted, the sample sizes are small, but that's what postseason baseball is—one small sample size that determines everything.

Either way, Carpenter is locked in. Look for him to be as effective against the Giants as he was against the Dodgers. 

Jake Peavy Will Win the NLCS MVP

Mark Tenally/Associated Press

Over his final five starts of the regular season, Jake Peavy pitched to a 1.44 ERA with a 0.957 WHIP and a .219/.266/.325 slash line against in 31.1 innings. In Game 1 of the NLDS against the Washington Nationals, he tossed 5.2 frames with three strikeouts and three walks en route to his first postseason victory.

True, Peavy got into a bit of trouble toward the end of his outing against the Nationals and had to be bailed out by the bullpen, but he is pitching at a high level right now.

He also has an advantage in that the St. Louis Cardinals lineup is largely unfamiliar with what he brings to the table. Only two players—Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta—have more than 17 at-bats against him. And while Holliday is slashing out at .286/.474/.393, Peralta has put up a pedestrian .206/.243/.382 slash in 34 at-bats, per ESPN.com.

Barring a sweep, Peavy will get at least two starts against the Cardinals in the NLCS. Look for him to limit the damage from Holliday, continue his dominance against Peralta and use pitch location and speed variations to keep the rest of the lineup at bay.

He will edge out Madison Bumgarner for the NLCS MVP with two victories and a sparkling ERA.

The Kansas City Royals Will Outhit the Baltimore Orioles

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

The Baltimore Orioles led the world in home runs this past season, compiled a .166 ISO as a club and finished with the sixth-highest wRC+ in MLB, per FanGraphs.

Simply put, the Orioles know what to do at the plate. That said, they will get outhit by the Kansas City Royals in the ALCS.

To be sure, a lot of this prediction is based on the fact that the Royals pitching staff will limit what the Orioles do on offense. Look no further for proof than what they accomplished against the Los Angeles Angels. They held MLB’s No. 3 offense based on wRC+ to a .170/.248/.311 slash line against. That is flat-out impressive.

Regardless of what the Orioles will do, however, the Royals will edge manager Buck Showalter's club on the stat sheet. Specifically, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain will show up and steal the offensive thunder from the O's. 

Now we are not suggesting that the Royals are going to develop more raw power than the Orioles by the time the series begins. What they will do is drive the gaps with authority and be better situational hitters.

Alex Gordon Will Win ALCS MVP

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Yes, Alex Gordon is only hitting .200 this postseason with a .702 OPS. And yes, Eric Hosmer would seem to have the momentum, but Gordon is going to walk away with the ALCS MVP award.

First off, he destroyed Orioles pitching during the regular season.

To that end, he had a .345/.367/.586 slash line with two home runs, a double and nine RBI in 29 at-bats against them, per Baseball-Reference. That is his best stat line against any AL club not in the Central.

He is also heating up at exactly the right time.

True, he went 0-for-5 against the Oakland A’s in the Wild Card Game. He redeemed himself, however, by posting a .300/.462/.500 slash line with four RBI, three walks, two stolen bases and two doubles in 10 at-bats during the three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels in the American League Division Series.

Expect Gordon to put up another round of solid offensive numbers and play exceptional defense en route to the MVP.

Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and historical statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.

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