MLB Playoff Schedule 2014: ALCS, NLCS Bracket, Coverage Guide and Predictions
In the American League, a World Series drought of no fewer than 29 years will be snapped. In the National League, uhh, the best we can do is 24 months.
The stories of each respective League Championship Series can only be told on polar-opposite terms. The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Ravens have spent decades as the broke stepchildren sharing a home with richer, more successful siblings. Kansas City is not only looking for its first World Series appearance since 1985—it's in the midst of its first playoff outing since Bret Saberhagen went all God Mode.
The Orioles have had more intermittent successes, but they've been offset by moments of despair. The last time Baltimore set foot in the ALCS, it was sent packing in six games despite outscoring the Cleveland Indians 19-18 overall. A year earlier, Jeffrey Maier helped birth the legend of Derek Jeter and spark a Yankees dynasty.
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The 15 years since have produced exactly one other playoff berth. In 2012. It was ended by—you guessed it—Jeter and the Yankees.
In the NL, success only breeds more of it for the Giants and Cardinals. This will be the fifth straight season either San Francisco or St. Louis represents the O.G. league. The Giants have become an even-year dynasty, winning the World Series in 2010 and 2012 while missing the playoffs in both repeat attempts. The Cardinals are looking for their fifth World Series appearance overall since 2004.
So, no, not exactly like the Baltimore-Kansas City situations. But that dichotomy is what helps make both series interesting. Let's take a quick preview of what to expect with everything getting underway this weekend.
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
| Game 1: Kansas City Royals (James Shields) at Baltimore Orioles (TBD) | October 10 | 8 p.m. | TBS |
| Game 2: Kansas City Royals (TBD) at Baltimore Orioles (TBD) | October 11 | 4 p.m. | TBS |
| Game 3: Baltimore Orioles (TBD) at Kansas City Royals (TBD) | October 13 | 8 p.m. | TBS |
| Game 4: Baltimore Orioles (TBD) at Kansas City Royals (TBD) | October 14 | 8 p.m. | TBS |
| *Game 5: Baltimore Orioles (TBD) at Kansas City Royals (TBD) | October 15 | 4 p.m. | TBS |
| *Game 6: Kansas City Royals (TBD) at Baltimore Orioles (TBD) | October 17 | 8 p.m. | TBS |
| *Game 7: Kansas City Royals (TBD) at Baltimore Orioles (TBD) | October 18 | 8 p.m. | TBS |
I am still mostly uncertain how the Royals managed to not only defeat but sweep the more talented Angels. Watching Ned Yost's hours-long love affair with the bunt against Oakland, it seemed borderline impossible that the Royals take down a team that features the best player in baseball, a solid enough starting rotation and the best offense in baseball.
But the Royals made it happen. Game-winning home runs from Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer gave Kansas City Games 1 and 2 in thrilling, extra-innings fashion, and James Shields got the job done in Game 3 to close out shop.
Phrases like "team of destiny" are typically complete hokum, but it's hard to come up with any better explanation. The Royals are the first team in MLB history to win three consecutive extra-inning playoff games. They are also, to my knowledge, the first team of the social media era actively encouraged by folks to bunt every at bat. Simply because it amuses us.
Kansas City feels like the world's kid little brother who finally got his act together. The Royals are the Midwestern Pirates; their plight has been so disheartening that it's impossible to not rub their shoulders and tell them everything will be all right along the way.
''For the fans, 30 years without feels like a lifetime. It's an eternity to me,'' designated hitter Billy Butler said, per the Associated Press (h/t Fox Sports). ''Kansas City deserves everything they're getting and we want to give it to them.''
The words "Royals" and "success" are so oxymoronic that somehow the Orioles are the bully of this series. Theirs is the roster featuring the most prolific power hitter of 2014 (Nelson Cruz), one of the most underrated superstars in baseball (Adam Jones) and the confidence boost of having slain arguably the world's best starting rotation.
There is a reason that Baltimore as it stands is a solid favorite to take the Fall Classic in most major sportsbooks, per Odds Shark. The combination of Kansas City's unlikely rise and Baltimore's talent advantage makes the line between favorite and underdog quite clear.
That line starts to blur when looking at the individual matchup. The Royals all season have subsisted on the oldest of old-school small-ball tactics. Their bunting and free-wheel swinging run in direct contrast to every analytical piece of data we have available. Bunting has been statistically proven to be an inefficient means of producing runs. Striking out is just fine, but failing to work pitch counts or draw walks gives the pitcher an advantage.
The Royals had MLB's fourth-highest batting average but were 16th in on-base percentage. That's a disconcerting turnaround; it would typically point toward Kansas City being an unusually lucky team in terms of underlying statistics. That's not really the case. The Royals ranked only 12th in BABIP; the difference between their BABIP and batting average was among the lowest in baseball.
In layman's terms: Kansas City is good at getting base hits because it puts the balls where fielders are not. The Orioles' world-beating defense will be able to mitigate that somewhat, but they can only offset their shaky starting rotation so much. Baltimore's pitching staff ranked 25th in quality starts, lacks a go-to ace in high-priority situations and relies a little too much for my liking on a bullpen that's yet to really break.
Baltimore remains the favorite here. I'm just going to roll with the feel-good story.
Prediction: Royals in 6
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
| Game 1: San Francisco Giants (TBD) at St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) | October 11 | 8 p.m. | Fox |
| Game 2: San Francisco Giants (TBD) at St. Louis Cardinals (TBD) | October 12 | 8 p.m. | Fox Sports 1 |
| Game 3: St. Louis Cardinals (TBD) at San Francisco Giants (TBD) | October 14 | 4 p.m. | Fox Sports 1 |
| Game 4: St. Louis Cardinals (TBD) at San Francisco Giants (TBD) | October 15 | 8 p.m. | Fox Sports 1 |
| *Game 5: St. Louis Cardinals (TBD) at San Francisco Giants (TBD) | October 16 | 8 p.m. | Fox Sports 1 |
| *Game 6: San Francisco Giants (TBD) at St. Louis Cardinals (TBD) | October 18 | 4 p.m. | Fox |
| *Game 7: San Francisco Giants (TBD) at St. Louis Cardinals (TBD) | October 19 | 7:30 p.m. | Fox Sports 1 |
The Giants and Cardinals are good at baseball. As we established in the intro, these two franchises have a recent habit of October success. That doesn't make their respective LCS appearances any less surprising. The duo were both met by more talented teams on paper in the division series. In fact, their opponents were the only two National League teams with plus-100 or better run differentials.
Going further: The Dodgers would have had to divide their run differential by 6.3 to come within the same ballpark as the Cardinals. The Nationals would have shaved theirs by more than half to match the Giants. Run differential being the best long-term predictor of success, the odds of both St. Louis and San Francisco pushing through was pretty low.
To both do it in four games is pretty damn astounding.
The flaw with the Giants and Cardinals is basically the same: Neither are especially good at one single thing. St. Louis ranks right around 10th in every major pitching category and is around league average or a little below in every offensive category except on-base percentage.
The Giants do a great job of keeping opposing batters off the basepaths but do a less-good job when they do get on and have quietly dreadful underlying numbers. San Francisco has received by far the lowest wins above replacement from its pitching staff among remaining playoff teams, finishing worse than all but two teams in the regular season.
The Giants have gotten very lucky on balls in play, and they're not an especially strong defensive team. In terms of defensive runs saved, the San Francisco fielders actually cost their pitchers five runs during the regular season.
So...what gives? Are these just two pretty good teams that lack much discernible separation from one another?
Pretty much, yeah.
The Giants have Madison Bumgarner, the Cardinals can counter with Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals might not have an the individual answers for Buster Posey and Hunter Pence, but their lineup is arguably deeper and more well-rounded. Plus, it appears Matt Carpenter has morphed into one of the premier power hitters on the planet overnight.
The winner of this series will be the one that gets the breaks. I think it's going seven games regardless. And if that's the case, it's always best to roll with the home team.
Prediction: Cardinals in 7
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