The Biggest Must-Follow Storylines of the Upcoming ALCS, NLCS Battles
After a thrilling division series round, the championship series is set to kick off Friday night as the MLB postseason continues on.
The American League Championship Series side of things will get underway first, as the wild card Kansas City Royals take on the AL East champion Baltimore Orioles, with both teams coming off of sweeps in the ALDS.
The National League Championship Series kicks off the following day, as the wild card San Francisco Giants take on the AL Central champion St. Louis Cardinals, a team that came up with one clutch hit after another in its NLDS victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
If nothing else, this postseason has reinforced the idea that anything can happen in October, and it should continue to provide plenty of surprises between now and the World Series.
Before the next round gets underway, here is a look at the biggest must-follow storylines of the upcoming ALCS and NLCS battles.
ALCS: Oft-Praised Buck Showalter vs. Oft-Criticised Ned Yost
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When Buck Showalter took over as the Baltimore Orioles manager in the second half of the 2010 season, the team was riding a streak of 12 straight losing seasons and on its way to a 13th.
After going 69-93 in his first full season at the helm in 2011, the Orioles finally seemed to buy into what Showalter was selling, and the result was a 93-69 finish and the team's first postseason appearance since 1997.
All told, the Orioles are 274-212 (.564) over the past three years, and they ran away with the AL East title this season before sweeping the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS.
Showalter was praised all season for getting the most out of his pitching staff and overcoming the losses of Matt Wieters and Manny Machado. Perhaps most importantly, he has brought an identity to an Orioles team that had seemingly been lost for over a decade.
On the other side of the matchup is Ned Yost, who is managing in the playoffs for the first time in what is his 11th season as a big league manager and fifth season leading the Royals. There is perhaps no manager in baseball who has bounced back and forth between being on the hot seat and being a Manager of the Year candidate more than Yost, at least in the eyes of the fanbase.
His decision to lift ace James Shields in the fifth inning of the team's Wild Card Game immediately backfired, as Yordano Ventura promptly allowed a three-run home run. The Royals pulled it out, but it was enough for fans to again call for his head.
Love him or hate him, Yost has led the Royals to their first postseason appearance since 1985. He'll be going up against one of the game's best strategists in Showalter, and this will be his chance to prove he deserves more respect.
ALCS: Nick Hundley/Caleb Joseph vs. Royals Running Game
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The stolen base has become something of a lost art in today's game, but the Royals have used their speed to help offset their lack of power.
Despite hitting an MLB-low 95 home runs during the regular season, the Royals managed to score 4.02 runs per game (league average was 4.07), and that was thanks in large part to an MLB-best 153 stolen bases.
Their regular-season stolen base leaders were as follows:
| Jarrod Dyson | 36 | 7 | 83.7% |
| Alcides Escobar | 31 | 6 | 83.8% |
| Lorenzo Cain | 28 | 5 | 84.8% |
| Nori Aoki | 17 | 8 | 68.0% |
| Alex Gordon | 12 | 3 | 80.0% |
| Omar Infante | 9 | 3 | 75.0% |
| Terrance Gore | 5 | 0 | 100% |
The trend has continued in the postseason, as the Royals swiped a ridiculous seven bases in their Wild Card Game with the Oakland A's and added another five in their three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels.
Nick Hundley and Caleb Joseph split catching duties for the Orioles after Matt Wieters was lost for the year to Tommy John surgery, and they did so again in the ALDS. Hundley earned the start in Games 1 and 3, but it could be Joseph who sees the bulk of the action in the ALCS.
You see, he does a significantly better job throwing out would-be base stealers.
| Nick Hundley | 31 | 5 | 13.9% |
| Caleb Joseph | 34 | 23 | 40.4% |
Game 1 starter Chris Tillman pitched to a 2.78 ERA in 18 starts with Hundley behind the plate this year, compared to a 5.29 ERA in seven starts throwing to Joseph, so who draws the Game 1 start behind the plate will be telling in how concerned the Orioles are about the Royals' running game.
ALCS: Defense Could Take Center Stage
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Speed is not the only underappreciated aspect of the game that could play a significant role in this year's ALCS matchup. Defense could also wind up taking center stage.
FanGraphs assigns an overall defensive rating to each team, which can be defined as the total runs that team saved above or below average on the year. This is a more all-encompassing defensive rating than the standard defensive runs saved we often reference here.
The top five on that list looks like this, along with their respective UZR/150:
| Royals | 9.0 | 74.8 |
| Orioles | 10.9 | 55.4 |
| Reds | 7.1 | 52.4 |
| Red Sox | 7.6 | 47.0 |
| Cardinals | 3.0 | 30.5 |
The Royals lead that category rather handily, though the Orioles are in second and lead the league in overall range as a team, so it's fair to call this a matchup of the two best defensive teams in baseball.
There are former Gold Glove winners on both sides, with Adam Jones (3), Alex Gordon (3), J.J. Hardy (2), Nick Markakis (1), Salvador Perez (1) and Eric Hosmer (1) all taking home the award at least once. However, the star of the series could once again be Lorenzo Cain.
Cain made four highlight-reel catches during the team's ALDS sweep of the Angels, and he has as much range as any outfielder in the game today.
"He’s a phenomenal center fielder," Yost told Kathleen Gier of The Kansas City Star. "Got tremendous athleticism, he’s got tremendous speed and he gets great jumps on balls because he reads them right off the bat."
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ALCS: Nelson Cruz and Delmon Young vs. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas
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The Orioles don't really have a lot of playoff experience, but they do have two of the more productive postseason hitters in recent memory on their roster in Nelson Cruz and Delmon Young.
Here is a quick look at their career postseason stats heading into the ALCS:
| Nelson Cruz | 37 | 1.059 | 25 (16) | 32 | 30 | 2011 ALCS MVP |
| Delmon Young | 35 | .855 | 14 (9) | 21 | 14 | 2012 ALCS MVP |
Cruz was 6-for-12 with a pair of home runs in the ALDS, while Young delivered the big blow in Game 2 with a pinch-hit three-run double to give the team a one-run lead. There are certainly others who can and will deliver as the Orioles look to reach the World Series, but those two guys have as impressive a track record of postseason success as any active hitters.
On the other side, we have a Royals team that's making its first postseason appearance since 1985, so for the most part, the extent of their postseason experience has come so far this October.
For a team that did not hit very many home runs during the regular season (an MLB-low 95), K.C. has already hit some huge bombs this postseason, and it was Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas leading the way in the ALDS.
Both guys had a pair of home runs in the series, with Moustakas going 3-for-11 and hitting the game-winner in Game 1 and Hosmer going 4-for-10 and launching the game-winner in Game 2.
It's a matchup of established postseason standouts against budding postseason stars, and the production of those four guys could wind up being a major key for both teams.
ALCS: A Battle of Elite Bullpens
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While neither the Orioles (3.10, sixth) nor the Royals (3.30, 10th) ranked in the top five in bullpen ERA during the regular season, both teams' bullpens were as dominant as any pens in baseball during the stretch run and were undoubtedly the two best relief corps among the 10 playoff teams.
The lights-out trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland at the back end has received the bulk of the attention for the Royals, and understandably so.
However, the addition of Jason Frasor at the trade deadline and the emergence of 2014 draft pick Brandon Finnegan gives their pen plenty of depth. The Royals should also have Danny Duffy available as a long reliever, provided he doesn't earn a start, and he could be a real weapon.
| Danny Duffy | 31 G, 25 GS, 9-12, 2.53 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 |
| Tim Collins | 22 G, 0-3, 1 HLD, 3.86 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 |
| Jason Frasor | 61 G, 4-1, 10 HLD, 2.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 |
| Brandon Finnegan | 7 G, 0-1, 1 HLD, 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 |
| Kelvin Herrera | 70 G, 4-3, 20 HLD, 1.41 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 |
| Wade Davis | 71 G, 9-2, 33 HLD, 1.00 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 13.6 K/9 |
| Greg Holland | 65 G, 1-3, 46 SV, 1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 13.0 K/9 |
The Royals bullpen pitched a combined 12 innings in the ALDS, allowing just four hits and one run while walking five and striking out 12. It was 2-0 with with a .108 opponent batting average, and Holland converted both save chances.
Not to be outdone, the Orioles feature an impressive late-inning trio of their own in Andrew Miller, Darren O'Day and Zach Britton. Their Opening Day closer, Tommy Hunter, gives them another plus arm, and Kevin Gausman already proved what a weapon he can be as a long reliever, with 3.2 innings of one-run ball in Game 2 of the ALDS.
The O's carried only 11 pitchers in the ALDS and excluded left-handers Brian Matusz and T.J. McFarland against a right-handed heavy Tigers lineup. My guess is Ubaldo Jimenez gets the boot and Matusz replaces him when ALCS rosters are announced
| Kevin Gausman | 20 GS, 7-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 |
| Brian Matusz | 63 G, 2-3, 14 HLD, 3.48 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 |
| Brad Brach | 46 G, 7-1, 8 HLD, 3.18 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 |
| Tommy Hunter | 60 G, 3-2, 12 HLD, 2.97 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 |
| Andrew Miller | 73 G, 5-5, 22 HLD, 2.02 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 14.9 K/9 |
| Darren O'Day | 68 G, 5-2, 25 HLD, 1.70 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 |
| Zach Britton | 71 G, 3-2, 37 SV, 1.65 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 |
That group combined to throw 12 innings in the ALDS, allowing nine hits and three earned runs while walking four and striking out 11. It was 1-0 with a .220 opponent batting average. Britton converted both of his save chances, and the middle relief added four holds.
The offenses in this series had better do everything in its power to score early, because both of these bullpens are capable of significantly shortening games.
NLCS: Adam Wainwright Is Not 100 Percent...Can He Pitch Like an Ace?
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Somewhat lost in the shuffle of a pair of bad starts from Clayton Kershaw was an even worse outing from Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright in his Game 1 NLDS start against the Dodgers.
Wainwright lasted just 4.1 innings, allowing 11 hits and six earned runs, as Dodgers hitters went a whopping 11-for-22 against him during his time on the mound.
Those struggles came as something of a surprise considering the way the 33-year-old finished out the regular season. He was 4-0 with a 0.55 ERA over his final four starts. However, he has been dealing with "some tendinitis and discomfort around his right elbow" for several months now, according to an article from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
"There’s no question that Waino has been fighting it," manager Mike Matheny said in the Dispatch article. "I haven’t made that a secret and neither has he. It’s all going to come down to how he feels. The likelihood of him saying ‘I can’t go’ is very slim. But it is a possibility that something might not feel right."
All signs point to the Cardinals ace taking the ball for Game 1 of the series, and considering the way he finished the regular season while pitching through those same arm issues, the comments from Matheny seem like he's talking about a worst-case scenario.
Still, this is not an insignificant issue, with the format shifting from a best-of-five to a best-of-seven, as that means Wainwright will almost certainly start twice barring a sweep and could be looked to on short rest if things wind up at a Game 7.
The Cardinals don't necessarily need Wainwright to go out and fire a complete game next time he takes the ball, but they do need him to be an awful lot better than he was in the NLDS opener.
NLCS: Hunter Pence Wears Out Cardinals Pitching
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Buster Posey has been red hot since the start of the second half, Pablo Sandoval has an impressive track record of postseason success and Brandon Belt hit the biggest home run of his career to win Game 2 of the NLDS.
That being said, Hunter Pence may be the key for the Giants offensively in their NLCS matchup. He has flat-out owned Cardinals pitching over the years, dating back to his time with the Houston Astros.
All told, Pence has hit .301/.341/.467 with 16 doubles and 13 home runs and 53 RBI in 366 career at-bats against the Cardinals, and that includes head-to-head success against a number of guys currently on their roster.
| Adam Wainwright | 15-for-54, 4 2B, 3 HR, 5 RBI |
| Lance Lynn | 4-for-13 |
| Shelby Miller | 2-for-7, HR, RBI |
| Carlos Martinez | 1-for-5 |
| Marco Gonzales | 2-for-3, 2B, RBI |
| John Lackey | 1-for-3, 2B |
| Seth Maness | 1-for-3 |
| Pat Neshek | 1-for-3 |
| Trevor Rosenthal | 1-for-3 |
| Michael Wacha | 1-for-3 |
| Totals | .299/.306/.485, 6 2B, 4 HR, 7 RBI |
Pence hit .277/.332/.445 with 29 doubles, 10 triples and 20 home runs during the regular season, and he ranked second in the NL with 106 runs scored, so regardless of the matchup, it's easy to call him an impact bat in the Giants lineup.
NLCS: Lance Lynn Has Struggled Against the Giants in the Past
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Lance Lynn will likely be the Game 2 starter for the Cardinals once again in the NLCS, and there is an outside chance he could take the ball in Game 1 if ace Adam Wainwright is unable to go. The 27-year-old enjoyed the best season of his career in 2014, going 15-10 and lowering his ERA by over a run from the previous season—from 3.97 to 2.74.
He gave the Cardinals a quality start in the NLDS, allowing seven hits and two earned runs in six innings of work, walking two and striking out eight.
The Giants could prove to be a much tougher challenge for him, though, as they have enjoyed some success against him in the past. That includes a rough outing earlier this season in their lone head-to-head matchup.
Here is a quick rundown of the big right-hander's history against the Giants, including his major league debut back in 2011.
| Jun. 2, 2011 (L) | 5.1 | 4 | 5 (5) | 0 | 5 |
| Aug. 7, 2012 (L) | 6.0 | 8 | 4 (4) | 3 | 6 |
| Oct. 14, 2012 | 3.2 | 5 | 4 (4) | 2 | 3 |
| Oct. 19, 2012 (L) | 3.2 | 4 | 4 (0) | 2 | 6 |
| Jun. 1, 2014 (L) | 3.1 | 8 | 7 (4) | 4 | 2 |
As you can see, included among those five starts are a pair of outings against them in the 2012 NLCS, when the Giants eliminated the Cardinals in seven games on their way to a World Series.
Lynn has been a different pitcher this year, and he proved in his NLDS start that he is capable of battling out of trouble on the big stage. It's hard to ignore the fact that the Giants have really had his number over the years, though.
NLCS: The Starting Rotation Is Once Again a Strength for the Giants
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I'm going to cheat a little bit here and include one of my points from Wednesday's biggest division series takeaways article as a storyline for the NLCS as well: the resurgence of the San Francisco Giants starting pitching.
In 2010, the Giants ranked third in the majors in starters' ERA at 3.54 behind the foursome of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and a 20-year-old Madison Bumgarner. They would go on to win the World Series.
In 2012, they came in at sixth in the major leagues with a 3.73 ERA from their rotation. Lincecum was relegated to bullpen duties, but Cain, Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong still gave the team a lights-out trio once October rolled around. They would again hoist the World Series trophy.
This season?
The Giants starters went a combined 56-60 with a 3.74 ERA, ranking them just 16th in the majors and 10th in the National League.
Bumgarner is a stud, and Jake Peavy has been a second ace since coming over at the trade deadline, but the rest of the rotation was a major question mark entering October. Veterans Vogelsong (3-6, 4.20 ERA) and Tim Hudson (2-7, 4.73 ERA) both struggled after the All-Star break, and the team's other option to start was Yusmeiro Petit, who had zero postseason experience.
So, how have things worked out so far? Pretty well.
| WC: Bumgarner | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| G1: Peavy | 5.2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| G2: Hudson | 7.1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| G3: Bumgarner | 7.0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| G4: Vogelsong | 5.2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
Add to that six innings of one-hit, shutout relief from Petit to earn the win in the Game 2 marathon, and what was once a legitimate question mark for the Giants again looks like their biggest strength.
They don't have an easy matchup in a Cardinals team that has all the momentum in the world offensively after coming up with one hit after another, but they have to feel an awful lot better about their pitching situation than they did a couple of weeks ago.
NLCS: Can the Cardinals Keep Coming Up with Clutch Hits?
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Has a team ever put together a more clutch series of games than the Cardinals did against the Dodgers in the NLDS?
Here's a quick rundown in list form:
- Game 1: Matt Carpenter three-run double in the seventh for a 7-6 Cardinals lead.
- Game 1: Matt Holliday three-run home run in the seventh for a 10-6 Cardinals lead. (STL wins 10-9)
- Game 2: Matt Carpenter two-run homer in the eighth to tie the game 2-2. (LAD wins 3-2)
- Game 3: Kolten Wong two-run homer in the seventh for a 3-1 Cardinals lead. (STL wins 3-1)
- Game 4: Matt Adams three-run home run in the seventh for a 3-2 Cardinals lead (STL wins 3-2)
Two of those home runs were off of Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, two were left-handed hitters against left-hander relievers and all of them were absolutely huge.
All told, the team was 9-for-29 with 13 RBI with runners in scoring position and 4-for-15 with a double and two home runs in late/close situations. Add to that an inexplicable .560/.593/1.040 line with 14 hits, three doubles, three home runs and 13 run scored in the seventh inning of those four games, and this team put together an awful lot of late-inning magic to reach the NLCS.
That's a small sample size, and it's hard to think those sort of clutch numbers are sustainable, but then again, "clutch" tends to defy logic.
Unless otherwise noted, all standard and advanced stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference and accurate through Wednesday, Oct. 8.
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