49ers vs. Rams: Breaking Down San Francisco's Game Plan
A two-game winning streak is nice, but it will mean very little for the San Francisco 49ers if they cannot take to the road and defeat the 1-3 St. Louis Rams in Week 6 on Monday Night Football.
San Francisco is coming off a 22-17 Week 5 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, where 15 of its points came by way of field goals.
The week before against Philadelphia, the Niners again struggled to finish drives with touchdowns, settling for four field goals that nearly cost them the win.
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One can be assured that Rams head coach Jeff Fisher took notice of the 49ers' red-zone woes from the previous weeks and will implement some sort of game plan that keeps this negative trend going for Jim Harbaugh's squad.
On the flip side, San Francisco must impose its will upon a division rival that has quickly fallen out of the conversation in the tough NFC West.
In this article, we break down San Francisco's approach to defeating St. Louis in Week 6. We'll pay special attention to some of the various factors and elements the 49ers need to address, implement and exploit.
Recognizing St. Louis' Strengths
While many consider the Rams a weak team this year, their 1-3 record may be misleading.
Indeed, St. Louis has been hindered with some bad luck and unfortunate circumstances this season—injuries to quarterback Sam Bradford and defensive end Chris Long are no exceptions.
But the Rams do have some positives on both sides of the ball. Their defense is 13th in yards allowed per game.
| Week 1 | vs. Minnesota | 170 | 185 | 355 | 0 | L, 34-6 |
| Week 2 | @ Tampa Bay | 175 | 157 | 332 | 1 | W, 19-17 |
| Week 3 | vs. Dallas | 217 | 123 | 340 | 2 | L, 34-31 |
| Week 4 | Bye | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Week 5 | @ Philadelphia | 207 | 145 | 352 | 3 | L, 34-28 |
| Total | 769 | 610 | 1,379 | 6 | 1-3 |
On top of that, St. Louis has allowed just 192.3 passing yards per game—ranked No. 1 in the league.
But let's take a smaller sample size to show what can happen when the Rams defense is exploited correctly.
In Weeks 3 and 5, St. Louis gave up a total of 340 and 352 yards to the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively. Both the Cowboys and Eagles rushed for over 100 yards in each game and their aerial attacks netted over 400 yards combined.
Granted, the Cowboys and Eagles offenses carry some firepower, but it points out that the Rams defense is permeable. We'll get to how San Francisco will exploit it in a bit.
Instead, let's shift to what the 49ers have to watch out for from St. Louis' offense.
Backup quarterback Austin Davis, who has started three games in place of the injured Shaun Hill, seems to have improved week by week. In total, Davis has notched a 96.8 quarterback rating over four games. In Week 2, he threw for 235 yards. In Weeks 3 and 5, Davis passed for 327 and 375 yards, respectively.
Going by his numbers, he is getting better week by week. But we have to take those numbers with a grain of salt, considering the defenses he went up against. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cowboys and Eagles do not exactly stand out as stalwart defensive teams.
Wide receiver Brian Quick has emerged as Davis' favorite target this season. He currently leads all Rams receivers with 21 receptions for 322 yards and three touchdowns.
Other dangerous targets include wide receiver Kenny Britt and tight end Jared Cook.
On the ground, running back Zac Stacy will look to build upon his 4.2 yards-per-carry average entering the matchup. The 49ers, meanwhile, have allowed just 3.9 yards per carry, the ninth-best mark in the league.
Exploiting the Weaknesses
While the Rams have some positives in their corner, their weaknesses appear to play right into the 49ers' hands.
St. Louis has given up an average of 152.5 yards on the ground in 2014. While the defense has performed adequately against the pass, the inability to stop the run plays right into what San Francisco does best—moving the ball on the ground.
We should expect San Francisco's offense to come out run-heavy early in the game. This should help set up quarterback Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers passing game.
To get Kaepernick going, the 49ers will have to contain the Rams' pass rush. A key matchup to watch is between left tackle Joe Staley and defensive end Robert Quinn—aspects of which are described further by Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.
The 49ers have just five sacks this season, ranking 26th in the league.
But the Rams have been even worse, recording just one sack all season.
If the Rams pass rush can't get to Kaepernick consistently, the 49ers offense will have a field day.
Jerrell Richardson of CBS Sacramento goes into further detail about the 49ers' pending offensive attack:
"While some of it may have to do with opponent’s ability to run the ball against them, St. Louis is ranked first in the league defending the pass. Conversely, the 49ers are 207 passing yards per game puts them towards the bottom of the NFL. Despite the numbers, the matchup between the 49ers passing attack and the Rams secondary though still goes to the road team. San Francisco has not been forced to pass due to its running game, and continues to show signs of putting it all together.
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It is a safe bet that San Francisco can simply overpower St. Louis using its traditional run-first approach.
But on defense, how will the 49ers take advantage of what appears to be a surging Rams offense?
First, it all starts with stopping Stacy. Yet again, this plays directly into the hands of what San Francisco has done best on defense this season. Aside from Week 1 in Dallas, the 49ers have not allowed a single 100-yard rusher.
While Stacy remains a potent threat, the combination of 49ers run-stuffers should get the job done here.
This should force the Rams to move the ball through the air, at least in theory. With that comes the pass rush—an element that has widely eluded the 49ers in the wake of linebacker Aldon Smith's nine-game suspension.
Yet the emergence of rookie linebacker Aaron Lynch has given San Francisco a boost. Over five games, Lynch has totaled eight hits on quarterbacks and 14 pressures, which are the second-most totals on the team behind Justin Smith, per Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News.
Therefore, it should be no surprise that Lynch has supplanted second-year pro Corey Lemonier on pass-rushing downs.
If the 49ers can generate some semblance of a pass rush, they may be able to force Davis and the Rams into committing turnovers.
Winning the turnover differential will be key. The 49ers have committed just one turnover since their Week 2 loss against the Chicago Bears. On the flip side, the Rams have six turnovers in the same span while playing one fewer game.
The 49ers defense has forced six turnovers in their last three matchups and is second in the league with 282.8 yards allowed per contest (73.8) on the ground.
Formulating a Game Plan
As stated above, St. Louis' weaknesses play right into the hands of San Francisco.
The Rams cannot stop the run, so look for Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde to gash the St. Louis defense early and often. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that the 31-year-old Gore tops 100 yards once more in this contest.
We all know how the 49ers do when that happens.
Kaepernick's legs may not be a part of the equation. While a few designed runs may be called for, the Niners offense will likely center around its power backs. Kaepernick should do his damage through the air, having been set up by the running game.
Rookie cornerback E.J. Gaines has put together a solid first season with St. Louis. Fellow defensive back Janoris Jenkins has had some up-and-down moments during 2014. Both will have to be at their best to stop Kaepernick.
While we might expect some enticing matchups between the Rams secondary and wideouts Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree, the biggest potential contributor in the receiving game could very well be tight end Vernon Davis.
Davis looks to be on track to return in Week 6, per David Fucillo of Niners Nation, after missing the game versus Kansas City last Sunday.
Considering San Francisco's red-zone woes—we'll get to that in a second—having Davis on the field could be the difference-maker in turning some of those Phil Dawson field goals into touchdowns.
For the defense, San Francisco's approach will be as simple as stopping the run and generating a pass rush. The team is good at one aspect but not so great at the other.
Lynch and Justin Smith must generate pressure like they did against Eagles quarterback Nick Foles in Week 4. This will be critical if the 49ers want to limit Davis' production through the air.
And, of course, the invaluable time-of-possession battle can't be overlooked. But with San Francisco emphasizing the run, this advantage should clearly tilt toward the 49ers.
Maintaining Momentum
This thought goes far beyond simply building upon San Francisco's back-to-back wins. Rather, this should be applied to the game itself. The 49ers have yet to score a touchdown in the fourth quarter this season—a fact not lost upon the players.
“We’re definitely not coming away with enough touchdowns,” Staley said via Doug Williams of NBC Bay Area. “It’s definitely something we will improve on. We have to.”
This applies not only to the fourth quarter, but inside the red zone. Williams notes that following Week 5, San Francisco's red-zone percentage has fallen to just 44.4 percent—25th in the NFL.
Considering the Rams' near-comeback against the Eagles in Week 5, the 49ers would be wise to finish their drives with touchdowns early and often. Trailing at one point 34-7, Austin Davis helped bring St. Louis back into contention with 21 unanswered points.
While Philadelphia's defense falls way short when compared to that of San Francisco, the 49ers can't afford another late-game implosion like the ones suffered in losses to the Bears and Arizona Cardinals.
This is where a strong red-zone presence will be key for Kaepernick and the offense. While the Rams defense is suspect against the run, a little creativity and unpredictability may be very useful here.
San Francisco is vastly superior to St. Louis entering this matchup—at least on paper. The 49ers also hold the edge in momentum, having upended hot teams back-to-back in Weeks 4 and 5.
On the other hand, the Rams have suffered back-to-back losses and find themselves struggling to maintain the identity that made them one of the better sub-.500 teams from a year ago.
The 49ers should beat St. Louis. But it will ultimately fall on the ability to put the pieces together to take advantage of San Francisco's strengths.
We'll see if this can be accomplished on Monday.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterMcShots on Twitter.
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