5 NBA Superstars Who Could Sign Short-Term Contracts to Cash in Later
Follow the money.
It's a credo NBA free agents should, in theory, live by. Position yourself for the most lucrative payday possible. Go wherever the dollar signs take you—which, in this case, is summer 2016.
The NBA agreed to a new national TV rights deal with ESPN and Turner Sports that will pay the Association approximately $24 billion over the next nine years, per The New York Times' Richard Sandomir. Yes, that's billion with a "b."
No one quite knows how the NBA plans on funneling its latest revenue stream into the salary cap, but it's expected to rise exponentially prior to the 2016-17 season, when the new broadcasting deal takes effect. Though the league could try to spread the inevitable increases out over time, beginning this summer, there's no escaping some type of abrupt ascent.
Grantland's Zach Lowe says the cap should reach at least $80-plus million by 2016-17. Bleacher Report's Howard Beck also says it will hit an "estimated $84 million" by then. With that type of jump on the horizon—the current cap is set at $63.2 million—players approaching free agency before then are facing a dilemma.
Annual salaries and raises are going to increase with the salary cap. Contracts are going to be worth more. Signing new, long-term pacts before the cap rises precludes a player from cashing in later.
So why not wait? Why not sign a shorter deal like LeBron James did, then hit the open market after league-wide spending power skyrockets?
Certain players have to be asking themselves these same questions. Some of them may even choose to go this route. Whether or not they do depends on a number of things. Age, position, team situation and future free-agency climate all come into play.
Put simply, it has to make sense for a player to delay financial security.
And for some of the league's top stars, it just might.
Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
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Call this a matter of self-confidence, of which Rajon Rondo has plenty.
"Yes, I do," Rondo said at Boston Celtics media day when asked if he thought he was a max-contract player, per The Boston Globe's Baxter Holmes.
To that, we should all utter two succinct yet almighty syllables: Prove it.
Rondo wouldn't receive flurries of max-contract offers if he hit free agency right now. Maybe a contending team desperate for a final piece—like, say, the Houston Rockets—throws one his way, but the market wouldn't be overwhelming.
There's no shortage of star point guard specimens in the NBA. Most of them, unlike Rondo, have appeared in more than 68 games over the last two seasons. And most of them, unlike Rondo, aren't nursing a broken left hand.
If he wants to elevate his earning potential, signing a one-year deal is the way to go. That way, if he plays well in 2015-16, he'll not only have reinforced his star standing, but he'll be capitalizing off a steeper salary cap.
Being open to a one-year deal—with a player option on the second for individual insurance purposes—also makes him easier to trade if the Celtics go that route. The promise of having Rondo for at least another season before he begins a long-term search could be enough for interested parties to meet Boston's asking price.
Entering free agency at 30 in 2016 while still playing a loaded position isn't foolproof, but Rondo's game isn't predicated on explosion like Russell Westbrook's and Derrick Rose's, so it should age well. Thirty isn't ancient either. Rather, it's the perfect time for Rondo to cash in one last time before bidding his prime adieu.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
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LaMarcus Aldridge is a good businessman who understands the importance of financial security. It is his fiscal responsibility, then, to ponder the possibility of becoming a free agent in 2016—especially given how he's already approaching his future with the Portland Trail Blazers.
"I'm happy to stay [in Portland], happy to be here, happy with the direction the team has gone the last year or two," he told The Oregonian's Joe Freeman in July. "I just want to get a five-year deal. I feel like that’s the best decision on my part."
A five-year deal will certainly be available to him at the end of this season. But it could also be awaiting him in 2016, as he's approaching 31.
Big men like Aldridge are supposed to cash in as soon as possible. The nightly beatings they endure tend to shorten their superstar shelf lives. And yet Aldridge could be different.
Post-ups aren't his offensive lifeline. He can take opponents off the dribble, and he feasts off mid-range jumpers. He converted 44.2 percent of his shots between 16 and 24 feet last year, markedly above the league's average, according to NBA.com.
Place him in the same offensive class as Tim Duncan, in that he, too, should age well. And with the cap set to explode, he can use that to his advantage by playing through next season before signing a short, option-loaded deal that gives him the freedom to explore free agency in 2016. That this maneuver also gives him another year to see if he's latched on to a legitimate title contender in Portland only enhances its appeal.
As for Aldridge embracing short-term risks for long-term gains, that may all depend on how much the cap—and therefore, his earning potential—actually mushrooms between now and then.
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
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This goes against acceptable free-agent logic, but hey, we're swimming in unexplored waters here.
Marc Gasol will become an unrestricted free agent in July, at which point he'll be 30 and seeking one last make-it-rain payday before he's associated with phrases such as "over the hill" and "remember when..." But he can also roll the dice by re-signing with the Memphis Grizzlies for a year, if they're so inclined to let that happen.
Pushing off his real free-agency excursion would be about more than money. Not to say it isn't about money. A fatter contract is something that could—and should—interest him. Reaching free agency in 2016 just affords him the luxury of waiting and seeing what the Grizzlies assemble.
Memphis has under $15 million in guaranteed contracts on its 2016-17 books as of now. Mike Conley is slated to become a free agent that summer as well. Timing his free agency with the Grizzlies' impending financial plasticity provides the unique opportunity of observing the team's direction before rendering a decision.
Whom will the Grizzlies keep? Whom will they sign? Will they be a title contender in the ultrabrutal Western Conference?
Structuring his next contract in a way that thrusts him into the 2016 free-agent fray at 31 puts Gasol in the driver's seat, with a bird's-eye view of how those developments unfold. It's an opportunity he won't otherwise have. And, assuming he's still interested in returning to Memphis, it's one he cannot rule out.
Goran Dragic, Phoenix Suns
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Why yes, Goran Dragic is a superstar. Joining James as the only players in the NBA to average at least 20 points and 5.5 assists per game while shooting 50 percent from the field last season has earned him this calling card.
Likewise, it's also left him barreling toward free agency next summer, his $7.5 million player option a formality. When he gets there, max contracts could be waiting.
Dragic's value to the Phoenix Suns is particularly high. They have Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas, but their propensity for dual-point guard lineups makes Dragic indispensable. Cases are already being made in his favor, one of which comes from USA Today's Bob Young:
"Dragic will be 29 years old in May, and his next contract is probably going to be his last chance at a well-deserved payday.
Unlike Bledsoe, Dragic has a proven track record on the court, a great reputation off of it and has shown a commitment to the Suns that Bledsoe has avoided since the Suns obtained him in a deal with the Clippers.
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Max offers won't be off the table in 2016, when Dragic is 30. If he opts into the last season of his current contract or signs a one-year deal and continues playing at a high level, more choices will be available to him then as opposed to this coming summer.
Loads more teams will have cap space at that time if the salary cap doesn't rise immediately as part of the smoothing-out process Lowe outlined earlier.
More options can equate to more money, and more money is something a perennially undervalued point man angling for his last contractual hurrah should be pining after.
Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Of anyone else preparing to explore free agency, it makes the most sense for Kevin Love to follow in the footsteps of James.
Love holds a player option for 2015-16, which he's almost certain to decline. When he was first traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers, Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reported there was a "firm agreement" in place between Love and his new team. He would hit free agency next summer, then re-sign with the Cavaliers long term.
But nothing is a given in the NBA. Especially now. Love will still be 26 next July. He can opt in to the last season of his deal or sign a one-year contract without fear of facing a physical or statistical decline. Then in 2016, before he turns 28, he can ink a long-term pact worth substantially more.
"For a player with seven-nine years of service, like Kevin Love, the max is 30 percent of the cap," writes SB Nation's Tom Ziller. "Under the current cap, that's about $19 million in starting salary. With the new TV deal, that could be something like $28 million. "
Waiting to hash out his distant future could promise Love tens of millions of dollars in additional salary over the next half-decade. As someone who's guaranteed a max deal, he would be remiss not to consider putting pen to paper on a shorter contract this year. Negotiating a second-year player option like James did, just in case something goes wrong (injuries) during the 2015-16 campaign, only diminishes personal risk.
Let's also not forget this lengthens Love's evaluation period. Living in Cleveland may be all hearts and rainbows now, but Love could grow weary of playing third fiddle to James and Kyrie Irving. And though James told reporters he plans on retiring in Cleveland, delaying commitment allows Love to make sure that's true, since both players would (presumably) be free agents at the same time.
Lucrative opportunity—and unparalleled clarity—is knocking at Love's door. He only need skirt the far less worthwhile venture facing him in 2015 to answer it.
*Contract information via ShamSports.
