Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Cleveland Browns are just 1-5 both straight up and against the spread the last six times they've been lined as favorites at home. They're also 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the rival Pittsburgh Steelers. The 2-2 Browns are short home chalk for Sunday's game against the 3-2 Steelers.

Point spread: The Browns opened as two-point favorites; the total was 47 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 26.9-18.7 Steelers

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers are 3-2, including a season-opening victory over Cleveland, and would be 4-1 had they not blown that game against Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago.

Pittsburgh just won at Jacksonville last week 17-9, outrushing the Jags 111-56, winning time of possession by a 35-25 margin and picking off rookie quarterback Blake Bortles twice, all while covering the spread as six-point favorites.

The Steelers rank fourth in the league in total offense, seventh in rushing, ninth in total defense and 11th versus the run. Most notably, a Pittsburgh running game that averaged just 86 yards per outing last year is averaging 137 yards this season.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns just won another close game last week, rallying from a 28-3 deficit at Tennessee to win 29-28 on a Brian Hoyer touchdown pass with one minute to go, salvaging a push on the spread as one-point favorites.

The comeback from 25 points down was the largest on the road in NFL history. Cleveland is now 5-2 SU and 5-0-2 ATS in games Hoyer has started. The Browns ran for 175 yards last week, 123 from newcomer Ben Tate, and the Cleveland defense, which had struggled a bit so far this season, came up with a stop on a 4th-and-1 near midfield that set up the game-winning drive.

Smart pick

The Browns are a neat story, playing well with Hoyer, a team on the improve. But they're also capable of falling behind an outfit like the Titans 28-3 or the Steelers 27-3 in Week 1. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has rediscovered how to run the ball, and that just helps make Big Ben better. So the smart money here resides with the Steelers.

Trends

• Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last eight games.
• Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last six games when playing at home against Pittsburgh.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.