
MLB Playoffs 2014: TV Schedule, Live Stream and Predictions for ALCS Game 1
With the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals winning on Tuesday, the full field for the league championship series is set.
The American League Championship Series begins the round, with Game 1 scheduled on Friday. The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles both swept their opponents in the American League Division Series, with the former toppling the top-seeded Los Angeles Angels and the latter the only higher seed to advance after taking out the Detroit Tigers.
The 2014 postseason has already had its fair share of craziness, so it's hard to gauge how the ALCS will go.
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When: Friday, Oct. 10, at 8:07 p.m. ET
Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Watch: TBS
Live Stream: TBS.com and Postseason.TV (subscription required)
Prediction
The beauty of the Royals sweeping the Angels, at least from a Kansas City perspective, is that James Shields can start Game 1 of the ALCS without working him on three days' rest. The Royals couldn't ask much more than to have their ace start the biggest game the franchise has seen in decades.
According to MLB.com, the Baltimore Orioles have yet to announce their starter for Game 1, so it remains to be seen with whom they'll counter.
Shields made two starts against the Orioles during the regular season, going 2-0 and posting a 3.21 ERA over 14 innings pitched. In 13 starts, his numbers at Camden Yards are a bit mixed. He's 7-2 but has a somewhat pedestrian 3.81 ERA.
But you don't earn the nickname "Big Game James" by wilting under pressure.
The Royals gambled big on Shields, giving up Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi in December 2012. Many were extremely skeptical of the deal—myself included—but it's almost impossible to argue that Kansas City gets to the 2014 ALCS without Shields or Wade Davis, who also arrived in the deal.
"When you look at it, it means everything. It was the trade that put us over the hump," said Royals manager Ned Yost, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. "Would we be in this position without James Shields and Wade Davis? No. It did exactly what we hoped it would."
In the long term, the Tampa Bay Rays might be the real winners. However, the more success Shields has in this year's postseason, the more Royals fans will be happy to trade potential success for an actual run at the first World Series title since 1985.
Kansas City will certainly need its ace to be his ALDS self rather than his AL Wild Card self.
The immediate problem for the Orioles in the ALCS is that they won't have the Tigers bullpen to kick around anymore. Baltimore torched Detroit's relievers for 11 runs, which is slightly more than half of its total runs scored for the series (20).
Kansas City, on the other hand, finished with one of the best bullpens in baseball. Here's a look at where Royals relievers ranked in a few different statistical categories, courtesy of FanGraphs.
| ERA | 3.30 (10th) |
| FIP | 3.29 (6th) |
| xFIP | 3.54 (10th) |
| K/9 | 8.65 (14th) |
| BB/9 | 3.30 (16th) |
| LOB% | 73.7% (17th) |
| WAR | 5.9 (T1st) |
All Shields needs to do in Game 1 is go six strong innings, and then he can turn things over to the Royals' dominant trio of Kelvin Herrera, Davis and Greg Holland. Any doubts that Herrera's forearm injury might linger throughout the postseason were put to rest in Game 3 of the ALDS, per Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan:
Much is made about how the Royals are winning games by going back to strategies utilized by teams before the advancement of sabermetrics. In most years, you can't hope to win the World Series by eschewing things like slugging, on-base percentage, home runs and walks.
Christopher Kamka of Comcast SportsNet Chicago illustrated how little the other three remaining playoff teams have valued baserunning and stolen bases:
But Kansas City is making it work. Grantland's Rany Jazayerli also explained that the Royals didn't rely solely on small ball in the ALDS as much as people are making out:
"For all the talk about the Royals turning back the tide of 30 years of sabermetrics by winning with speed and defense, let’s not forget something kinda important here: the Royals won Game 1 on an extra-inning home run. They won Game 2 on an extra-inning home run. They won Game 3, 8-3, and their first six runs came on a bases-clearing double, a two-run homer, and a solo homer.
"
Over the course of the entire ALCS, the Royals model may not be sustainable. Plus, the Orioles have one of the best offenses in the league coupled with a pitching staff that is largely underrated across the board. A seven-game series also lends itself to less variability than you'd see in a five-game series like the LDS. The cream generally rises to the top.
When looking at the teams player by player, the Orioles arguably get the edge. Now that's not a guarantee that Baltimore will advance, of course. With home-field advantage in their pocket, though, the Orioles should be the favorites in the ALCS.
In Game 1, however, with Shields on the mound for KC, the Royals should get off to a great start.
Prediction: Royals 3, Orioles 2



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