Broncos vs. Jets: Breaking Down New York's Game Plan
Somehow, the New York Jets will need to put last week's blowout loss behind them and find a way to take down the once-beaten Denver Broncos, led by reigning MVP Peyton Manning.
With the team in such disarray, the Broncos are the last team the Jets want to see roll up to MetLife Stadium on Sunday. Manning rarely loses in the first place—he almost never loses to 1-4 teams in such bad shape like the Jets.
For the Jets, what is almost as important as trying to get the win is simply showing signs of life after last week's debacle. Not only did they not score any points (which is quite a "feat" in today's NFL), they did not even cross midfield until the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the defense gave up points seemingly at will, raising questions from their own players as to whether or not their practice habits are up to par.
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Even if they are 1-4 and in a season that looks as bleak as any in the Rex Ryan era, they must put themselves in the best possible situation to pull off what would possibly be the biggest upset of the season, at least based on the trajectory of these two teams.
Antonio Allen Moves Back to Cornerback
There are two main reasons as to why converted/unconverted safety/cornerback Antonio Allen will need to return to his post on the perimeter at cornerback.
For one, an injury to Darrin Walls may give the Jets no choice. After not returning to the game against the San Diego Chargers last week, the Jets are acting as if they will be without their No. 2 cornerback for this week, working out Aaron Berry, according to ESPN's Rich Cimini.
Even if Walls were healthy, the Jets still need Allen to move back to corner just to help contain Manning's top target, Demaryius Thomas. After a somewhat slow start to the season, the Georgia Tech product exploded against the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday, catching eight passes for 226 yards, including two touchdowns—at the expense of former Jets and current Cardinals cornerback Antonio Cromartie.
One of the few bright spots from Sunday's debacle was the performance of second-year cornerback Dee Milliner, shutting down Keenan Allen for most of the game. However, the Jets would be much better off using Allen against Thomas because of his size and physicality.
There is no player on the Jets roster that can come close to matching up with Thomas from a physical standpoint, but Allen gives them the best chance. After all, Allen made his bones last year covering the likes of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. Early in the preseason, he held A.J. Green to one catch in a half of football.
As well as Milliner played last week, he cannot match Allen's physicality and aggressiveness, making him a relatively poor matchup against Thomas.
Thomas is just one weapon in an arsenal of weapons in the Broncos arsenal. If the Jets chose to use their top corner, Milliner, on Thomas, they would still need to give him help (as they will need to with Allen). Why not use Milliner to shadow Emmanuel Sanders on the other side, giving Ryan a tad more flexibility in his coverage schemes as he tries to cover all of Denver's passing threats?
Yes, Allen will be missed in the deep area of the field at safety, but the Jets can at least take advantage of the fact that Allen now has (somewhat accidentally) acquired enough experience at cornerback to survive against Thomas.
Zone Up in the Red Zone
It is no secret that Rex Ryan loves to use a heavy dose of man-to-man schemes, but the Broncos' surplus of offensive weaponry will leave Rex no choice but to use more zone concepts, especially as Denver gets closer to the end zone.
One player to watch for in particular in the red zone is tight end Julius Thomas. Already with seven touchdowns to his name this season, Julius, not Demaryius, is the Thomas the Broncos look to when the field is condensed and size is at a premium.
If the Jets try to lock up on Thomas with any of their defensive backs, they are asking for trouble. Not only is Thomas a physically imposing player, but the timing and precision of the Broncos offense makes it nearly impossible to stick with these players.
The Broncos are particularly difficult to cover with man-to-man concepts because of their use of pick-and-rub concepts. Quick crossers and outs are extremely difficult to cover, especially on the interior of the formation and dealing with passing off receivers.
On this third-down touchdown pass, the Cardinals have the ideal player to cover Thomas in this situation: safety Tony Jefferson. Jefferson is an athletic player that specializes in coverage, but even he has no chance to stop this quick out pattern that results in a touchdown.
Julius and Demaryius are lined up on the same side of the formation. Demaryius draws attention with his route that goes deep into the end zone, leaving Julius in a one-on-one situation with Jefferson.
Jefferson actually has quality coverage on this play, but the ball is so well thrown and on time that he never has a chance to break it up.
Let Geno Run
Leaning on the run game to keep the ball away from a borderline-unstoppable quarterback is hardly a revolutionary idea, but giving the Broncos a heavy dose of Chris Ivory is not where the Jets running game should end.
The quickest way for the Jets to sustain drives and keep the ball away from Manning is to make the most of Smith's underrated mobility, getting him to create more production from his legs than he has in recent weeks.
Unlike Vick, Smith has never had a reputation as a dynamic threat with the football tucked away, but his Aaron Rodgers-esque ability to run at opportune times not only helps sustain drives by picking up first downs—it plants a seed in the defenses' mind that forces them to allocate personnel to prevent more runs from occurring.
Ryan, a defensive coordinator at heart, knows how frustrating a mobile quarterback can be to an opposing play-caller.
When a defense has to account for a quarterback's mobility, it opens the field up for receivers to get open while slowing down pass-rushers. Given the Jets' protection issues last week and their putrid level of talent at receiver, a mobile quarterback is just what the doctor ordered in order to cure this Jets offense.
If Smith is effective enough running the football, he essentially forces the opposing defense to play with 10 players when one has to stay home to account for his mobility.
Perhaps in an effort to become more of a classic pocket passer, Smith has been more hesitant to make use of his legs this season than he was as a rookie—unless he was forced to run away from oncoming defenders.
Smith is actually averaging more attempts per game than his rookie season, but his average has declined because many of his attempts were desperate scrambles of insignificant yardage.
| 2013 | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 366 | 22.88 |
| 2014 | 5 | 25 | 5 | 91 | 18.1 |
The Jets offense is clogged with too many problems to expect dramatic improvements in a week's time. The reality is the Jets offense may be another offseason away from ever being a respectable unit. In the meantime, however, Smith's legs can be used as an X-factor that could help level the playing field as much as possible.
Even at home, defeating the Broncos is a tall order for a team that has looked as putrid as the Jets have in recent weeks. However, with this challenge presents a great opportunity: Even if the Jets lose, playing competitive to arguably the best team in the AFC would be a huge confidence boost for a team that is in desperate need of good vibes.
If the Jets can hang with the likes of the Broncos, they will have flashed enough potential to beat any team they play for the rest of the season—which is all they can ask for at this point.
Advanced statistics provided by ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required).
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