NLCS 2014: Cardinals vs. Giants Position-by-Position Breakdown, Predictions
For the second time in the last three years, the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals are set to square off in the NLCS.
The series begins at Busch Stadium, with Game 1 scheduled for Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
The Cardinals didn’t have as strong of a season as they did in 2013, when they lost the Boston Red Sox in the World Series, but they played well enough down the stretch to edge out the Pittsburgh Pirates for the NL Central crown. In the NLDS, St. Louis knocked off the Dodgers in four games, beating Clayton Kershaw twice in the process.
The Giants, meanwhile, captured the second Wild Card spot and promptly ended both the Pirates’ and Nationals’ seasons within a five-game span. The team has won 11 of its last 12 playoff games dating back to the 2012 NLCS.
San Francisco also beat the Cardinals in their regular-season series, taking four of seven games while outscoring them 30-20.
But which team is best equipped to move on to the World Series?
Starting with the catcher position, here is a position-by-position comparison of both teams, with an edge given at each spot, including the four starting pitchers and the bullpen.
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Catcher
1 of 12
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .200 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 5 | .391 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Yadier Molina’s thumb injury in July and subsequent surgery cost the Cardinal backstop 40 games during the second half, but he was able to return to normal catching duties in late August in time for the stretch run. But with only six extra-base hits (all doubles) in his last 116 at-bats (including the postseason), it’s clear Molina’s injury is preventing him from driving the ball as he normally does.
The six-time Gold Glove Award winner (two-time Platinum Glove winner) is outstanding behind the plate, as he led the major leagues with a 48 percent (21-of-44) caught stealing rate, committed only two errors (both throwing) and ranked among the best in the NL based on blocking-specific metrics.
And then there’s Buster Posey, the two-time World Series champion and 2012 NL MVP. Posey ranked second among major league catchers with a 5.7 WAR this season, a product of a monster second half in which he hit .354/.403/.575 with 12 home runs, 13 doubles and 43 RBI in 62 games.
Posey has been the Giants’ hottest hitter in the postseason, with a team-leading .391 batting average and nine hits over five games. He’s yet to pick up an extra-base hit, but that should change sooner or later. Plus, it’s hard to ignore Posey’s track record of production against the Cardinals, as he’s batted .391/.491/.630 with seven extra-base hits in 46 at-bats over the last three seasons.
Advantage: Giants
First Base
2 of 12Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .250 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| 5 | .333 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
Matt Adams carried the Cardinals’ offense during the first half of the season, posting an .876 OPS with 11 home runs and 41 RBI, but cooled off markedly following the All-Star break, with a .650 OPS and four home runs in his final 61 games.
Though he took Clayton Kershaw deep in Game 4 of the NLDS, Adams still struggles with left-handers overall, hitting just .190/.231/.298 against them during the regular season.
Brandon Belt was cleared of his concussion symptoms and rejoined the Giants’ lineup on Sept. 15. The 26-year-old made up for some of the lost time by hitting safely in five of his final six games, with a .381/.458/.619 batting line and three extra-base hits in 24 plate appearances during that time frame. He also posted respectable .715 OPS in 64 at-bats against left-handed pitching.
Belt has continued to swing a hot bat in the postseason, as he’s either first or second on the team in every major offensive category, and his go-ahead home run in the 18th innings of NLDS Game 2 is a big reason the Giants reached the NLCS.
Advantage: Giants
Second Base
3 of 12
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 3 | .182 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 5 | .292 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Kolten Wong, 24, was one of the Cardinals’ more productive hitters after returning from the disabled list (shoulder) on July 6, batting .262/.298/.443 with 11 home runs, nine doubles and 26 RBI over 262 plate appearances. He also stole 11 bases in 14 attempts during that time frame.
Overall, Wong showcased impressive power and speed this season with 12 home runs—not including his go-ahead, two-run homer in Game 3 of the NLDS—and 20 steals in 24 attempts, all while solidifying second base defensively.
In 72 games after taking over as San Francisco’s everyday second baseman, Joe Panik posted an impressive .306/.344/.369 batting line to go along with 10 doubles, two triples, one home run and 18 RBI over 286 plate appearances.
Panik carved out an important role in the top third of the lineup, batting .303/.333/.361 with 21 runs scored in 37 games as the team’s two-hole hitter, and also raked against same-side pitching to the tune of .373/.381/.458 in 84 plate appearances.
Advantage: Giants
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Third Base
4 of 12Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .375 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 5 | .261 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
Leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter may have failed to match his phenomenal 2013 production, but he still scored the third-most runs in the NL (99) and ranked seventh in on-base percentage (.375).
Carpenter is also coming off a monstrous NLDS in which he smashed three home runs and three doubles—he became the first player in playoff history to notch one of each in three straight games—in 16 at-bats, with all but one double coming off a left-handed pitcher.
Pablo Sandoval’s production this year was nearly identical to his 2013 campaign, as the switch-hitting third baseman batted .279/.324/.415 with 16 home runs, 26 doubles and 73 RBI while playing in 157 games. The two-time All-Star and 2012 World Series MVP has collected a few big hits in the postseason, but he batted only .211 with one extra-base hit in the NLDS against Washington.
Advantage: Cardinals
Shortstop
5 of 12
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .214 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| 5 | .273 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
The Cardinals gave Jhonny Peralta a four-year, $53 million contract last offseason, looking for an offensive upgrade at shortstop after Pete Kozma and Daniel Descalso combined to hit just .222/.280/.303 with four home runs there in 2013.
That’s exactly what they got in the 32-year-old veteran, as Peralta posted a .779 OPS and led the Cardinals with 21 home runs and 38 doubles. On top of that, the veteran shortstop enjoyed the best defensive campaign of his 11-year career, ranking third in the major leagues at the position in terms of defensive runs saved (17 DRS) and fourth in zone rating (12.7 UZR/150).
The 32-year-old’s 5.4 WAR in 157 games was the highest among all qualified shortstops and 25th-best in the major leagues.
Brandon Crawford batted only .246 on the year, but the left-handed hitting shortstop did set career highs in home runs (10), triples (10), RBI (69), on-base percentage (.324) and slugging percentage (.389). He also finished the regular season on an absolute tear, batting .365/.388/.541 with eight extra-base hits and 16 RBI in 23 September games. Crawford’s white-hot bat carried over into the postseason, as his grand slam off Edinson Volquez helped the Giants defeat the Pirates in the NL Wild Card Game. In the NLDS, he collected two and three hits in Games 1 and 4, respectively.
Advantage: Cardinals
Left Field
6 of 12Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .267 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
After a disappointing first half of the season, Matt Holliday has hit .286/.365/.524 with 14 home runs and 45 RBI since the All-Star break, helping propel the Cardinals to first place in the NL Central. Holliday’s 2.1 fWAR during the second half trailed Jhonny Peralta (2.3) for highest on the team, while his 2.73 WPA (win probability added) ranked second among all big league hitters behind Buster Posey.
Holliday’s extensive postseason experience shouldn’t be ignored, too, as he owns a .257/.319/.461 batting line with 13 home runs 36 RBI in 63 playoff games.
Travis Ishikawa has manned left field for the Giants in the postseason, but has just two hits (both singles) in 13 at-bats. But with Mike Morse finally healthy and expected be added to the Giants’ NLCS roster, there’s a good chance Ishikawa will be relegated to pinch-hit duties moving forward.
Morse obviously represents the better offensive option at the position, as he finished the regular season with 16 home runs and 32 doubles in 131 games.
Advantage: Cardinals
Center Field
7 of 12
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .455 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 5 | .091 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
The Cardinals acquired Peter Bourjos in the offseason hoping he’d take over as the team’s everyday center fielder. Jon Jay just wouldn’t let that happen, though, as he batted .303/.372/.378 in 140 games and played markedly better defense compared to 2013.
Jay was similarly impressive in the NLDS on both sides of the ball, going 5-for-11 (.455) at the plate while making a pair of nice catches in center field.
The Giants have been without Angel Pagan, their everyday center fielder and leadoff hitter during the regular season, this October after he underwent season-ending back surgery in late September. In Pagan’s place the Giants inserted Gregor Blanco, who gave the club an unexpected boost during the second half by batting .296/.365/.449 and holding his own as the leadoff hitter.
Blanco has struggled atop the Giants’ lineup in the postseason, though, with just two hits in 22 at-bats over five games.
Advantage: Cardinals
Right Field
8 of 12Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .188 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| 5 | .273 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
The hope was that Oscar Taveras would run away with the everyday right field job after Allen Craig was shipped to the Boston Red Sox, but he finished his rookie season hitting just .239/.278/.312 with three home runs and 22 RBI in 234 at-bats.
Instead, Randal Grichuk, another rookie, played his way into a starting role by hitting .320/.346/.520 with four doubles and two home runs over 50 at-bats in September. The 23-year-old started all four NLDS games for the Cardinals and hit a first-inning home run off Clayton Kershaw in Game 1, but he also batted just .188 with seven strikeouts in 16 at-bats.
Hunter Pence enjoyed another strong offensive campaign, hitting .277/.332/.445 while playing in all 162 games for the second straight year. The 31-year-old paced the Giants in hits (180) and runs scored (106) and ranked second in home runs (20), RBI (74) and stolen bases (13).
Pence finished the regular season mired in a 4-for-54 slump, but he’s batting .273 in the postseason with hits in each of the Giants’ five games between the Wild Card and NLDS.
Advantage: Giants
Bench
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Projected NLCS Benches for Cardinals, Giants
| C Tony Cruz | C Andrew Susac |
| IF Daniel Descalso | IF Joaquin Arias |
| IF Pete Kozma | IF Matt Duffy |
| OF Peter Bourjos | OF/1B Travis Ishikawa |
| OF Oscar Taveras | OF Gary Brown |
The Giants received minimal production from its bench this season, as the team’s pinch-hitters batted .221/.287/.317 with 11 extra-base hits and 63 strikeouts in 208 at-bats. The bench becomes even weaker if Morse is healthy enough to crack the starting lineup, though it would give the Giants a decent left-handed bat in Ishikawa, a .333 hitter in 21 pinch-hit at-bats during the regular season.
Infielder Matt Duffy batted .375 (6-for-16) with six RBI off the bench, so expect manager Bruch Bochy to keep giving him at-bats late in games. The Giants also are likely to carry outfielder Gary Brown on the NLCS roster, as he’s without question the best runner on the team.
Rookie Oscar Taveras served as the Cardinals’ best pinch-hitter this year, batting .353 in 17 at-bats with five RBI, so it wasn’t surprising to see him used in that role during the NLDS. Taveras came off the bench in all four games in the series, tallying a single (off a left-handed pitcher) in four at-bats.
The rest of the Cardinals’ projected NLCS bench is on the roster for defensive purposes, as manager Mike Matheny likes to use Descalso, Kozma and Bourjos late in games.
Advantage: Cardinals
Starting Rotation
10 of 12
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4.30 | 1.52 | .766 | 9.8 | 2.7 | 0.39 | 1.21 | |
| 1.04 | 0.81 | .404 | 8.1 | 1.8 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
Projected Cardinals Rotation vs. Giants (Career Statistics)
1. Adam Wainwright: 10 GS, 5-5, 75.1 IP, 3.11 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, .668 OPS
2. Lance Lynn: 3 GS, 0-3, 14.2 IP, 7.98 ERA, 1.841 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, .871 OPS
3. John Lackey: 2 GS, 1-1, 14 IP, 2.57 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, .704 OPS
4. Shelby Miller: 2 GS, 2-0, 12.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, 1.216 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, .586 OPS
A lot has been made of Adam Wainwright’s health this week, as we learned the right-hander might not have been available to start Game 5 of the NLDS due to elbow tendinitis. But after a full week of rest following his shaky Game 1 start against the Dodgers (4.1 IP, 11 H, 6 ER), Matheny is confident his veteran right-hander will start Game 1 of the NLCS.
Lance Lynn takes the ball for the Cardinals in Game 2 after serving as the team’s top starting pitcher during the second half. While Adam Wainwright paced all Cardinal starters with eight wins after the All-Star break, Lynn led the club in almost every other notable pitching metric, including ERA (2.22), FIP (3.36) and strikeouts per nine innings (8.09 K/9). Meanwhile, his 1.4 WAR during the second half was tops among Cardinal pitchers.
The right-hander is also riding a streak of 10 consecutive quality starts including the postseason, and he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in an outing since June 28.
John Lackey went 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA and seven quality starts in 10 games after joining the Cardinals at the trade deadline, but that move was made with his impressive postseason track record in mind.
After winning Game 3 of the NLDS with seven innings of one-run ball, the 35-year-old right-hander is now 7-5 with a 2.92 ERA in 20 games (17 starts). Plus, as the winning pitcher in the clinching games of the 2002 and 2013 World Series, Lackey has experienced virtually every imaginable postseason scenario in his career.
Shelby Miller logged all of one inning in the postseason for the Cardinals a year ago, but a 2-0 record and 1.48 ERA in five September starts this season helped him secure the final spot in the playoff rotation. The right-hander held his own in his NLDS Game 4 start against the Dodgers, allowing two runs on five hits in 5.2 innings.
Projected Giants Rotation vs. Cardinals (Career Statistics)
1. LHP Madison Bumgarner: 7 GS, 3-4, 45.1 IP, 3.97 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, .644 OPS
2. RHP Jake Peavy: 9 GS, 3-4, 57.2 IP, 2.97 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, .704 OPS
3. RHP Tim Hudson: 13 GS, 4-4, 78.2 IP, 5.26 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, .762 OPS
4. RHP Ryan Vogelsong: 9 GS, 2-6, 65.2 IP, 6.17 ERA, 1.599 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, .822 OPS
Madison Bumgarner, a postseason veteran at only 25, once again proved he’s one of baseball's true aces by firing a four-hit shutout with 10 strikeouts against Pittsburgh in the NL Wild Card Game. The left-hander was equally impressive against the Nationals in Game 3 of the NLDS—save for his costly throwing error, obviously—allowing two earned runs on six hits while striking out six batters over seven innings.
Jake Peavy, a member of Boston’s 2013 World Series squad, has been everything the Giants hoped he would be since coming over at the trade deadline, going 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA in 12 starts. In Game 2 of the NLDS, the veteran right-hander held the Nationals to just two hits in 5.2 scoreless innings.
The backend of the Giants’ playoff rotation was full of uncertainty headed into the NLDS, but Tim Hudson (7.1 IP, ER, 8 K) and Ryan Vogelsong (5.2 IP, 2 H, ER) helped ease those concerns with dominant starts in Games 3 and 4, respectively. However, it is worth noting that neither right-hander has been particularly successful in their careers against the Cardinals.
Advantage: Giants
Bullpen
11 of 12Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 3.00 | 1.33 | .705 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | |
| 1.86 | 0.78 | .527 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
Projected Cardinals NLCS Bullpen (2014 Postseason Stats)
RHP Michael Wacha: N/A
LHP Marco Gonzales: 3 G, 3 IP, 2 H, BB, 2 K
LHP Sam Freeman: 1 G, 0 IP, 2 BB
RHP Sam Maness: 2 G, 1 IP, H, K
LHP Randy Choate: 1 G, 0.0 IP, H (HR), ER
RHP Carlos Martinez: 1 G, 1.1 IP, ER, BB, K
RHP Pat Neshek: 4 G, 3.2 IP, 2 H (HR), ER, 3 K
RHP Trevor Rosenthal: 3 G, 3 SV, 3 IP, 5 H, ER, BB, 4 K
The bullpen was a major weapon for the Cardinals in the 2013 postseason, but the team’s relievers struggled this year a bit more than expected, ranking 10th in the NL in bullpen ERA (3.62) and opponent OPS (.665).
Trevor Rosenthal’s 45 regular-season saves didn’t come easily; as he also posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.41 WHIP and had the second-most blown saves (six) among NL closers.
Carlos Martinez has bouts of control issues, but is still capable of mowing guys down, evidenced by his 50 strikeouts in 57 innings during the regular season. Meanwhile, Seth Maness once again was a groundball machine, leading the team with 1.92 groundball outs per every fly out, while All-Star Pat Neshek posted a stellar 1.67 ERA in 71 appearances while also notching six saves.
Rookie left-hander Marco Gonzales has been outstanding since joining the Cardinals’ bullpen, and he’s coming off three scoreless appearances against the Dodgers in the NLDS.
Projected Giants NLCS Bullpen (2014 Postseason Stats)
RHP Tim Lincecum: N/A
RHP Yusmeiro Petit: 1 G, 6 IP, H, 3 BB, 7 K
LHP Javier Lopez: 3 G, 0.2 IP, BB, K
RHP Jean Machi: 2 G, 2 IP, H (HR), ER, K
RHP Sergio Romo: 3 G, 3 IP, 2 H, 2 K
LHP Jeremy Affeldt: 3 G, 1.2 IP, H, K
RHP Santiago Casilla: 3 G, 2 SV, 3 IP, BB, 2K
RHP Hunter Strickland: 3 G, SV, 3 IP, 4 H (3 HR), 3 ER, BB, 4 K
The Giants’ bullpen was one of the best in the NL this season, ranking first in opponents’ batting average (.217), WHIP (1.07) and walks allowed (131) and third in ERA (3.01).
Right-hander Sergio Romo (64 G, 3.72 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) and Santiago Casilla (54 G, 1.70 ERA, 0.86 WHIP) split closing duties this season, with Romo saving 23 of 28 games and Casilla notching 19 saves in 23 chances.
The team also received strong performances from left-handers Javier Lopez (65 G, 3.11 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) and Jeremy Affeldt (62 G, 2.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP), while right-hander Jean Machi registered a 2.58 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 66.1 innings over a team-leading 71 appearances.
And where would the team be without Yusmeiro Petit? The right-hander picked up the win in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Nationals, as he came out of the bullpen and allowed only one hit while fanning seven over six scoreless innings in what turned out to be an record-setting 18-inning contest.
Lastly, rookie Hunter Strickland has become a go-to late-inning guy for Bruce Bochy this October after making only nine relief appearances during the regular season. The flame-throwing right-hander had some issues with the Nationals in the NLDS (mostly Bryce Harper, who took him deep twice in the series), but he also showed a lot of you-know-what by pitching through the struggles.
Advantage: Giants
Series Prediction
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The Cardinals and Giants are the only teams to win the NL pennant since 2010, so it isn’t surprising to see both clubs back in the NLCS.
A strong case can be made for either team as the favorite in the series, as the Cardinals’ (.689 OPS, .116 ISO, .308 wOBA) and Giants’ (.699 OPS, .133 ISO, .308 wOBA) offenses were comparable during the regular season, and also match up well on paper for the NLCS. San Francisco’s offense hung in there against Washington’s dominant starting rotation, and they could fare ever better against the Cardinals.
The Cardinals are a stronger team defensively, ranking second in the NL during the regular season with 64 runs saved, and they also feature better defensive options off the bench. Neither team is particularly strong on the base paths.
The postseason history between the two teams suggests it will be a back-and-forth series full of hard-fought games, and it wouldn’t be surprising if a few of the games went extra innings.
In the end, however, I think the collective postseason experience of San Francisco’s starters as well as the team’s overall pitching depth will give them the best chance to win the series.
Series Prediction: Giants def. Cardinals in six games
Statistics are courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
The postseason rosters referenced in this piece are strictly a projection, as neither team has officially announced the 25 guys it will carry in the NLCS and is not required to until Friday.
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