ALCS 2014: Orioles vs. Royals Position-by-Position Breakdown, Predictions
The Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals pulled off the unexpected with their respective sweeps of the Tigers and Angels in the American League Division Series.
Now, the two teams will square off in an ALCS that’s sure to keep fans on the edge of their seats.
The series begins at Camden Yards, with Game 1 scheduled for Friday at 8 p.m. ET on TBS.
Few pegged the Orioles as favorites in the AL East entering the season. But they wound up running away with the division, finishing with a 12-game lead over the second-placed New York Yankees, and made quick work of the Tigers in the ALDS.
The same can be said about the Royals, who took home the No. 1 seed in the wild-card race and promptly ended both the A’s and Angels’ seasons within a four-game span.
Kansas City also beat the Orioles in their regular-season series, taking four of seven games while outscoring them 26-18.
But which team is best equipped to move on to the World Series?
Starting with the catcher position, here is a position-by-position comparison of both teams, with an edge given at each spot, including the four starting pitchers and the bullpen.
Catcher
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .158 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | |
| 3 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Salvador Perez, the hero of the AL Wild Card Game, threw out 30 percent (25 of 82) of attempted base stealers and also picked off seven this season during the regular season, while his defense saved the Royals a total of eight runs. Offensively, Perez has plate discipline and swing-and-miss issues, but he has good pop (17 home runs during the regular season) and a knack for driving in big runs.
The Orioles spent much of the season trying to replace the injured Matt Wieters, with rookie Caleb Joseph seeing the bulk of the action prior to the acquisition of Nick Hundley. The latter started two of three games in the ALDS and, despite going 0-for-8 in the series, is the better offensive option overall, though Joseph is a stronger defender behind the plate and likely to receive a few starts in the ALCS.
Advantage: Royals
First Base
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .500 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | |
| 3 | .300 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Steve Pearce was one of the better out-of-nowhere stories in all of baseball, as the 31-year-old played for five different organizations since the start of 2012 before finally carving out an everyday role with the Orioles this season. Though he played in only 102 games, Pearce still batted .293 with a .930 OPS, 21 home runs and 26 doubles, and his 6.0 WAR was tied for seventh among AL position players.
Things seemed to click for Hosmer upon returning from the disabled list (fractured hand), as the first baseman batted .287/.343/.489 with 12 extra-base hits and 12 RBI in 102 plate appearances over the final 27 games of the regular season.
Hosmer’s late-season hot streak carried over into the AL Wild Card Game and ALDS, as the 24-year-old was a combined 7-for-14 between both series with four extra-base hits, including two game-changing home runs, and five RBI while reaching base in 12 of 19 plate appearances.
Advantage: Royals
Second Base
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .125 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| 3 | .300 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Jonathan Schoop may have made the Orioles’ Opening Day roster thanks in part to Manny Machado’s slower-than-expected recovery from knee surgery, but the Curacao native quickly proved he belonged in the major leagues and ultimately spent the entire season in The Show.
Schoop’s plate discipline is still a work in progress, as the 22-year-old walked only 13 times compared to 122 strikeouts while batting just .209 in 137 games. But he did show good power with 16 home runs in 455 plate appearances, and he also was one of the better defensive second basemen in the game.
And then there’s Omar Infante, who batted a pedestrian .252/.295/.337 with 50 runs scored in 575 plate appearances during the regular season and ranked dead last among all qualified AL second basemen with a 76 wRC+. To make matters worse, Infante’s struggles at the dish have carried over into the postseason, as he’s just 2-for-16 with six strikeouts through four games.
Advantage: Orioles
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Third Base
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .286 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 3 | .222 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
The Orioles lost Manny Machado to season-ending knee surgery in mid-August only to have his replacement at the hot corner, Chris Davis, then get popped for a 25-game suspension for amphetamines. Ryan Flaherty received the bulk of the playing time down the stretch as a result and turned in a strong finish to the regular season, batting .288/.365/.439 with eight extra-base hits in September.
Moustakas, 26, finished the regular season with the worst batting average (.215) and on-base percentage (.271) among AL third basemen with at least 500 plate appearances, while his .361 slugging percentage and 76 wRC+ ranked ahead of only Matt Dominguez.
However, Moustakas’ bat has come to life in the postseason, as he’s the only Royal hitter with a knock in all four games. And much like teammate Eric Hosmer, the left-handed hitting Moustakas has found his power stroke in October, highlighted by his clutch solo home runs in Games 1 and 3 of the ALDS.
Advantage: Royals
Shortstop
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .278 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| 3 | .300 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
A nagging back injury led to a down year for J.J. Hardy at the plate, as he jumped the yard only nine times after averaging 26 per season in his first three years with the Orioles. So it definitely was encouraging to see the 32-year-old hit a big home run off Max Scherzer in Game 1 of the ALDS.
Otherwise, Hardy’s .268/.309/.372 batting line, 142 hits and 28 doubles were in line with his career average, and he led all qualified AL shortstops with 10 runs saved defensively.
Alcides Escobar had a better season at the plate than Hardy, as he ranked first among AL shortstops in stolen bases (31) and triples (five), second in batting average (.285) and fourth in OPS (.694). Furthermore, his 165 hits and 34 doubles ranked second and third, respectively, in the league at the position.
Escobar is a quality defender at shortstop, but Hardy’s consistently slick glove gives him the edge in the matchup.
Advantage: Orioles
Left Field
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .200 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
| 2 | .375 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The Orioles acquired Alejandro De Aza off waivers from the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 30, and he quietly hit .293/.341/.537 with 11 extra-base hits in 82 at-bats down the stretch, emerging as the everyday left fielder and No. 2 hitter. He stayed hot against the Angels in the ALDS, tallying a pair of doubles and RBI in two starts.
Alex Gordon emerged as the AL’s top left fielder this season as well as a legitimate MVP candidate, batting .266/.351/.432 with 19 home runs, 34 doubles and 74 RBI while playing in 156 games. Though there were better hitters than Gordon at the position, nobody could match the soon-to-be four-time Gold Glove Award winner’s defensive prowess, as his 27 runs saved and 22.6 UZR/150 were both tops among AL left fielders—and it wasn’t even close.
Gordon bounced back to collect a hit in each ALDS contest after going 0-for-5 in the AL Wild Card Game, and his three-run double with two outs in the first inning of Game 1 arguably was one of the franchise’s biggest hits in the last 25 years.
Advantage: Royals
Center Field
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .211 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| 3 | .182 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
One of the best center fielders in Major League Baseball as well as the face of the franchise for the Orioles, Adam Jones fell just shy in his quest for back-to-back 30 home run/100 RBI seasons, finishing with 29 and 96, respectively. Yet while his numbers were slightly down across the board this season, Jones still managed to post a career-best 4.9 WAR.
Lorenzo Cain, meanwhile, swiped a career-high 27 bases this season to go along with his best batting average since he batted .306 over 43 games as a rookie in 2010. He sustained his success over the course of the season while shifting between the No. 1 and No. 3 spots in the Royals batting order. As the team’s three-hole hitter—which is where he’s batted in the postseason—Cain hit .356/.408/.489 over 49 plate appearances.
Cain also provided Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field (just as he has in the postseason), ranking third among center fielders (with at least 700 innings at the position) in runs saved (14 DRS) and fourth in zone rating (18.7 UZR/150).
Advantage: Orioles
Right Field
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .250 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 | .250 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Nick Markakis is the longest-tenured Orioles player by a considerable margin, as the 2003 first-round pick has been a staple in right field for the organization since 2006.
Rather than hitting in the middle of the lineup and being expected to drive in runs as he did in previous years, manager Buck Showalter deployed Markakis in the leadoff spot this season, allowing him to use plus on-base skills to set the table for the team’s big boppers. In the end, Markakis finished the regular season with a solid .276/.342/.386 batting line and the best WAR (2.5) of his career since 2008.
Nori Aoki quietly put together a strong season as the Royals’ everyday right fielder, batting .285/.349/.360 with 29 extra-base hits in 132 games while tying Alex Rios for the AL league lead in stolen bases (17) at the position. Beyond that, Aoki also proved that he was more than a platoon option by batting .363/.428/.435 with eight extra-base hits and more walks (12) than strikeouts (11) in 124 at-bats against left-handed pitching.
Advantage: Orioles
Designated Hitter
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4 | .154 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| 3 | .500 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
The Orioles decision to sign Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $8 million contract ended up being perhaps the biggest steal of the winter, as he led the AL with 40 home runs and gave the Orioles some much-needed punch in the middle of their lineup.
Additionally, Cruz is one of the more accomplished postseason players in the game today, with a 1.059 OPS with 14 home runs, nine doubles and 32 RBI in 37 career playoff games. He took home ALCS MVP honors back in 2011 as a member of the Rangers.
Billy Butler doesn’t have Cruz’s power frequency, evidenced by his nine home runs and .107 ISO in 603 plate appearances during the regular season, but he’s more adept at making contact and getting on base compared to the strikeout-prone slugger.
The 28-year-old batted only .271/.323/.379 over a 151 games, translating to a disappointing 97 wRC+, but he saw his numbers begin to trend in the right direction over the final month of the season. Butler hasn’t made much of an impact at the plate this October, but I think I speak for everyone in saying that watching him steal a base in Game 3—and then watching him realize that he’d actually stolen a base—was one of the best moments of the 2014 playoffs.
Advantage: Orioles
Bench
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Projected ALCS Benches for Orioles, Royals
| C Caleb Joseph | C Erik Kratz |
| IF Kelly Johnson | IF Jayson Nix |
| IF Jimmy Paredes | OF Jarrod Dyson |
| OF David Lough | OF Terrance Gore |
| OF Delmon Young | OF Josh Willingham |
Kelly Johnson and David Lough give Buck Showalter a pair of left-handed hitting options off the bench to match up with the Royals’ deep collection of right-handed relievers.
Delmon Young—who hit .302 with 11 doubles and seven home runs in 242 at-bats during the regular season—could potentially get the nod over De Aza with a left-hander such as Jason Vargas or Danny Duffy on the mound, though his limited defensive ability in the outfield detracts from his value as a starter in the best-of-seven series.
After coming off the bench to deliver a go-ahead, bases-clearing double in Game 2 of the ALDS, Young now owns an .855 OPS with nine home runs and 21 RBI in 121 career postseason at-bats. So, at the least, he should see some more key pinch-hit at-bats in the ALCS.
However, the Royals’ projected bench has the potential to make a greater impact on the club’s postseason success, as was the case in both the AL Wild Card Game and ALDS.
Dyson paced the Royals with 36 stolen bases this season and, amazingly, is a better defender in center field than Cain, while September call-up Terrance Gore—arguably the fastest player in this year’s postseason—has already swiped three bags in three attempts in the postseason as a pinch-runner.
Kratz, Nix and Willingham all stand out for their respective abilities to hit left-handed pitching, with the latter likely to receive the bulk of the pinch-hit opportunities against southpaws given his raw power.
Advantage: Royals
Starting Rotation
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 4.20 | 1.07 | .704 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.30 | |
| 3.38 | 1.04 | .671 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.93 |
Projected Orioles ALCS Rotation (Career Statistics vs. Royals)
1. RHP Chris Tillman: 5 GS, 2-2, 29 IP, 6.21 ERA, 1.414 WHIP, 4.7 K/9, .903 OPS
2. LHP Wei-Yin Chen: 6 GS, 1-1, 36.2 IP, 4.17 ERA, 1.418 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, .818 OPS
3. RHP Bud Norris: 1 GS, 0-1, 7.1 IP, 1.23 ERA, 0.682 WHIP, 1.2 K/9, .368 OPS
4. RHP Miguel Gonzalez: 3 GS, 1-2, 18.2 IP, 4.82 ERA, 1.232 WHIP, 4.3 K/9, .740 OPS
Chris Tillman has been the Orioles' best pitcher over the past two seasons, going 29-13 with a 3.52 ERA in the role of staff ace. The 26-year-old right-hander threw the ball particularly well in the second half, posting a 6-1 record with a 2.33 ERA in 14 starts to help the O's run away with the AL East title.
Tillman could also prove to be effective at stifling the Royals’ running game, as opponents have stolen only two bases in 13 attempts against him over the last two seasons, per Buster Olney of ESPN.com (subscription required).
Though the Tigers hit him around in the ALDS, left-hander Wei-Yin Chen could still start Game 2 for the Orioles, even if only to give Royals’ hitters a different look compared to the team’s trio of right-handed starters. At the same time, it’s worth noting that the 29-year-old is susceptible to the long ball, allowing 23 on the season, and owns a 4.17 ERA in six starts against the Royals in his career.
Bud Norris, fresh off a stellar outing in Game 3 of the ALDS, is likely to get the ball in Game 2 or 3 of the upcoming series. In his first full season with the Orioles, Norris set career highs in wins (15), ERA (3.65), WHIP (1.216) and BB/9 (2.8).
It wouldn’t be surprising if in the coming days Showalter named him as Baltimore’s Game 2 starter, as Norris pitched considerably better at Camden Yards (8-2, 2.44 ERA) this season than he did on the road (7-6, 4.80 ERA).
Right-hander Miguel Gonzalez was deserving of a spot in the Orioles’ playoff rotation after going 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA in 11 starts during the second half, but the fact he hasn’t appeared in a game since Sept. 28 hurts his chances of making a start this October. Plus, flamethrower Kevin Gausman looked really, really good in long relief in Game 2 of the ALDS.
Projected Royals ALCS Rotation (Career Statistics vs. Orioles)
1. RHP James Shields: 26 GS, 11-7, 176.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, .697 OPS
2. RHP Yordano Ventura: 2 GS, 1-1, 14.1 IP, 1.26 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, .632 OPS
3. LHP Jason Vargas: 8 GS, 2-3, 55.2 IP, 1.94 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, 4.4 K/9, .589 OPS
4. LHP Danny Duffy: 2 GS, 1-1, 12.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, 0.811 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, .434 OPS
The Kansas City Royals starting rotation was excellent during the regular season, led by ace “Big Game” James Shields and his strong supporting cast of Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas, Danny Duffy and, on occasion, Jeremy Guthrie.
The decision to throw Shields in the Wild Card Game forced the Royals to adjust their rotation for the ALDS, which turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Vargas (6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER) and Ventura (7 IP, ER, 5 K) were brilliant in Games 1 and 2 in Anaheim, respectively, before passing the torch back to Shields (6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K) in Game 3 to complete the sweep in front of an electric crowd at Kaufmann Stadium.
The trio combined to post a 2.37 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over 19 innings in the series, all the while holding Angel hitters to a .203 average.
Beyond that, all three starters have been hugely successful against the Orioles during their respective careers, especially Shields, who owns a 3.52 ERA in 26 starts.
Advantage: Royals
Bullpen
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Side-by-Side Stat Comparison (Postseason Only)
| 2.25 | 1.08 | .655 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | |
| 2.37 | 1.11 | .555 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 0.5 |
Projected Orioles ALCS Bullpen (2014 Postseason Stats)
RHP Kevin Gausman: 1 G, 3.2 IP, 3 H, ER, BB, 5 K
LHP Zach Britton: 3 G, 2 SV, 2.1 IP, 2 H, ER, BB, 2 K
RHP Brad Brach: 1 G, 0.2 IP
RHP Tommy Hunter: 1 G, 1.0 IP, 2 H, BB, K
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez: N/A
LHP Andrew Miller: 2 G, 3.1 IP, BB, 3 K
RHP Darren O’Day: 1 G, 1.0 IP, 2 H, ER
The Orioles’ bullpen has been a force all season, ranking third in the AL in ERA (3.10 ERA), WHIP (1.16) and opponents’ OPS (.645). They also ranked first in the league with a 1.47 groundout-to-airout ratio.
The addition of Andrew Miller (73 G, 2.02 ERA, 14.9 K/9) at the trade deadline gave the Orioles a dominant left-hander for the late innings to complement right-hander Darren O'Day (68 G, 1.70 ERA), while Zach Britton (37 SV, 71 G, 1.65 ERA), armed with a mid-90s sinker, has quietly emerged as one of the more consistent closers in the game.
And like I said before, don’t sleep on rookie Kevin Gausman making an impact in the series in some capacity.
Projected Royals ALCS Bullpen (2014 Postseason Stats)
RHP Jeremy Guthrie: N/A
LHP Brandon Finnegan: 3 G, 4.0 IP, H, ER, 2 BB, 3 K
RHP Jason Frasor: 3 G, 2.0 IP, H, BB, K
RHP Kelvin Herrera: 3 G, 2.2 IP, 4 H, ER, BB, 4 K
LHP Tim Collins: 1 G, 0.2 IP, K
RHP Wade Davis: 4 G, 4.1 IP, 3 H, ER, 2 BB, 4 K
RHP Greg Holland: 4 G, 2 SV, 4.0 IP, 3 BB, 7 K
The Royals boast the lethal late-inning duo of setup man Wade Davis, who struck out 109 batters and allowed just five extra-base hits in 72 innings, and lights-out closer Greg Holland, who saved 46 games in 48 opportunities in addition to posting a stellar 1.44 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 62.1 innings. He also closed out all three games against the Angels in the ALDS.
Right-hander Kelvin Herrera was equally dominant in a late-inning role during the regular season, posting a 1.41 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 70 innings, but the slight flexor strain he suffered during Game 1 of the ALDS has raised questions about his potential availability in the upcoming series.
Jason Frasor (1.53 ERA) and first-round draft pick Brandon Finnegan (1.29 ERA, 12.9 K/9) were lights out during the regular season, just as they were in the Wild Card Game and ALDS, and both relievers give the Royals options in the fifth and sixth innings to bridge the gap to Herrera/Davis/Holland.
On the season, the Royals bullpen ranked fifth in the AL in ERA (3.30 ERA) and eighth in opponents’ batting average (.235) and WHIP (1.24) while allowing fewer home runs (32) than any other team.
Advantage: Royals
Series Prediction
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Mark my words: The ALCS between the Orioles and Royals will be the most exciting series of the 2014 postseason, a series that will go either six or seven games.
A strong case can be made for either team as the favorite; the Orioles posses a more dangerous offense, at least from a power standpoint, while the Royals have an advantage on the mound. The fact that both teams are comparabe defensively—the top two defensive teams in the AL, per FanGraphs—only complicates any attempt at predicting the series’ outcome.
The tenacity of both teams should lead to them exchanging wins throughout the series, and it wouldn’t be surprising if each game was decided by no more than a few runs.
In the end, I think the Royals’ pitching depth, starters and relievers, gives them the best chance to win the series. The offense has proven to be capable of manufacturing runs in virtually any scenario, whether it be in the first inning or when facing a deficit in bottom of the ninth, but it’s the Royals’ collection of dominant arms that will help them edge out close games against the Orioles and advanced to the World Series.
Series Prediction: Royals def. Orioles in six games
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