Don't Write Off FSU QB Jameis Winston Just Yet in the Hunt for Heisman Repeat

Jameis Winston's challenge was always that his record-breaking 2013 season set the bar too high—that whatever he did on the field in 2014 would not measure up.

His Heisman season was almost too good statistically, as Winston threw for 4,057 yards and set a school record for touchdown passes in a single season (40) while completing 66.9 percent of his passes.

With FSU losing two of its top receivers in Kelvin Benjamin (a first-round pick by the Carolina Panthers) and Kenny Shaw, Winston's numbers in 2014 couldn't possibly stack up. The stats couldn't possibly measure up against one of the best years ever by a college football quarterback.

But through four games played in 2014, removing the game he missed due to suspension against Clemson, Winston's numbers are comparable. The sophomore has more passing yards this season (1,288 yards vs. 1,048 yards in 2013). His touchdown passes are down (12 TDs in 2013 vs. eight TDs in 2014) and interceptions are up (two INTs in 2013 vs. five INTs in 2014).

Search the Internet for Heisman polls, and Winston's name is often left off. While voters might not be considering Winston due to his off-field issues, or even because he missed the Clemson game to suspension, it is surprising that a returning Heisman winner on the nation's No. 1 team isn't under consideration on many Heisman polls.

Bleacher Report's Michael Felder ranked Winston fifth in his latest Heisman video breakdown, and NFL.com's Mike Huguenin has Winston eighth, but they are in the minority in giving Winston a spot in the Heisman discussion this year. An ESPN.com poll by 10 panelists who provide votes for first through fifth place lists nine players (Winston didn't receive even a fifth-place vote). A 10-person anonymous poll conducted by HeismanPundit.com did not list Winston. And neither did lists from CBSSports.com, Sporting News or SI.com.

A look back at Winston's 2013 season

First, let's take a look at Winston's game-by-game numbers through the first four weeks of 2013:

Opponent	Comp-Att	Yards	TDs	INTs
at Pittsburgh	25 of 27	356	4	0
vs. Nevada	15 of 18	214	2	1
vs. Bethune-Cookman	10 of 19	148	2	0
at Boston College	17 of 27	330	4	1
Totals	67 of 91 (73.6 comp. pct.)	1,048	12	2

A 25-of-27 performance in Winston's first college game certainly vaulted the redshirt freshman into the Heisman conversation. He followed it up with a good game against Nevada but then clearly played down to the competition against Bethune-Cookman of the Football Championship Subdivision. The Boston College game included a little bit of everything, from a lackluster first quarter to a sensational second quarter that ended with a Hail Mary touchdown pass to Shaw that put FSU ahead for good, 24-17.

For the season, Winston threw for 275 or more yards in nine of 14 games. It was that kind of consistency (both wins and stats) that helped Winston win the Heisman Trophy.

What Winston has done this fall

This fall, FSU is without Benjamin and Shaw, so Winston has had to establish a rhythm in the passing game with a group of new receivers like Jesus "Bobo" Wilson and Kermit Whitfield. And with veteran center Bryan Stork declaring for the NFL draft this past spring, Winston has had to adjust to a new starter in Austin Barron.

With those changes in mind, let's examine Winston's first four games of 2014:

Opponent	Comp-Att	Yards	TDs	INTs
vs. Oklahoma St.	25 of 40	370	1	2
vs. The Citadel	22 of 27	256	2	0
at North Carolina State	26 of 38	365	4	2
vs. Wake Forest	23 of 39	297	1	1
Totals	96 of 144 (66.7 comp. pct.)	1,288	8	5

Winston was hit-or-miss in a 370-yard passing game against Oklahoma State, where he had a Heisman moment with a dazzling 28-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. He was accurate against The Citadel and then, after the suspension, returned at N.C. State to help rally the team from a 24-7 deficit with four touchdown passes and a TD run. The win over Wake Forest was shaping up to be a pedestrian game for Winston, but he had a 59-yard touchdown pass to Travis Rudolph in the fourth quarter and ended the day just shy of a 300-yard game.

Also, FSU's 2013 schedule was criticized for being too easy. It featured early games against Nevada and Bethune-Cookman. This summer, FOXSports.com's Bruce Feldman called the Seminoles' 2014 schedule one of the nation's 10 toughest. It's clear that Winston's four opponents of 2014 are more challenging than those first four from 2013.

FSU's road ahead is filled with opportunities for both Winston and the team to impress. The Seminoles face a potential Top 5 showdown with Notre Dame (5-0 going into Saturday's game against North Carolina) when the Fighting Irish visit Tallahassee, Florida, on Oct. 18. FSU's trip to Louisville for a Thursday night game against the Cardinals could be the Seminoles' most challenging ACC game left on the schedule.

And while FSU's young receivers are emerging, it's not clear if playmaker Rashad Greene (concussion) will play against Syracuse or if he will need more time to recover. 

How does Winston stack up against other 2014 QBs?

There's no telling how much the combined effect of Winston's off-field issues have had on voters. But statistically speaking, Winston isn't far off from his 2013 numbers. Or those of a group of 2014 quarterbacks that are on Heisman lists.

Player	Comp. Pct.	Yards	TDs-INTs
Dak Prescott (Miss. St.)	63.9	1,232	13-2
Marcus Mariota (Oregon)	71.1	1,411	15-0
Everett Golson (Notre Dame)	64.0	1,383	13-3
Nick Marshall (Auburn)	57.9	755	8-1
Bo Wallace (Mississippi)	68.5	1,522	14-6
Bryce Petty (Baylor)	59.4	1,024	9-1
Jameis Winston (FSU)	66.7	1,288	8-5

Winston's numbers aren't gaudy, but they are right there with the other Heisman candidates. And remember that almost all the quarterbacks in this group have played five games versus Winston's four.

Statistically, Mariota has the best numbers—but he also suffered a loss last Thursday. Among the group of seven quarterbacks above, Winston ranks third in completion percentage and fourth in yards. He's tied for last in touchdowns and has the second-most interceptions.

Why isn't Winston in the conversation? While the off-field issues weigh heavily for many Heisman voters, it's also clear that he is being judged through the lens of his 2013 season.

Bob Ferrante is the Florida State Lead Writer for Bleacher Report, all quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bob on Twitter. All stats are courtesy of seminoles.com and FSU's 2014 media guide.